SBD Experts’ NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 1

• Our SBD NFL experts predict their top three picks against the spread for NFL Week 1
• Three experts are picking the Ravens to cover against former QB Joe Flacco and the Jets
• Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread below

One game is in the books and now we look to Sunday for the first full weekend of NFL action. This means we also kick off with our first weekly edition of the SBD Expert NFL ATS picks.

Each week we’ll pick our top three picks against the spread and keep track of our records throughout the season. Read on for this week’s NFL ATS picks.

Week 1 NFL ATS Picks

Odds as of September 9. Check out this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

Three of SBD’s NFL experts are riding with the Ravens this week on Sunday in our NFL ATS picks listed above.

Matt McEwan

Patriots +3.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Maybe I’m not giving Tyreek Hill enough credit, but I believe he needs Kansas City more than Kansas City needs him. Do the Dolphins have a lot of speed at WR now? Yes. Do the Dolphins have a quarterback I know can utilize that speed? No.

I am aware the Patriots have lost four of the last five to the Dolphins, and seven of the last nine in Miami. Bill Belichick is also aware, and it’s the reason he has taken his team down to Miami early to get acclimated to the conditions.

This is too many points for a very unproven team with a very young and inexperienced head coach.

What can the Patriots defense expect to face on Sunday?

BB previews the speed, strength & skill of Miami’s offense on the Belestrator. pic.twitter.com/YE4Ev7g1Yu

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 9, 2022

Broncos -6 at Caesars Sportsbook

If you were smart enough to jump on this right away, you could have had Denver -4 when NFL lines opened. But I’d still bet it up to -6.5. This Broncos roster has been very good for a couple years now, just in desperate need of a quarterback.

They have that now in Russell Wilson, who will be making his first career start for a team that isn’t the Seahawks right back in Seattle. Everything is there for Wilson to excel—good wide receiver corps, good offensive line, good running game, and good defense—and there is a lot to dislike about the Seahawks roster, who will trot out Geno Smith under center.

"If you do anything other than give Russell Wilson a standing ovation, you're a moron.."@RossTuckerNFL on what the reaction should be on Monday when Russell Wilson returns to Seattle.

Full interview.. https://t.co/9yN7E3Zsut pic.twitter.com/8Uw8EQDcm2

— Donnie & Dhali (@DonnieandDhali) September 7, 2022

Ravens -6.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook

I like the Ravens to be one of the bounce-back teams of 2022 after missing the playoffs last year for the first time in Lamar Jackson’s career. Baltimore suffered through a laundry list of injuries, including: Jackson missing five games, Rashod Bateman missing five, and JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards missing the entire season, forcing the Ravens to lean on an aged backfield of Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, and even Le’Veon Bell.

I like the Jets to remain near the bottom of the league standings, especially now with Joe Flacco thrust into the starting role while Zach Wilson aims to return Week 4. No, I’m not buying into any revenge game here.

Prior to last season, the Ravens had been very trustworthy road favorites, going 9-3 against the spread in that situation with Lamar Jackson under center. I like that trend to continue in Week 1.

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Ryan Metivier

Vikings +1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Vikings were +2.5 earlier this week so if you bet them early you got the better number. That has since shortened to +1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. But that’s ok because I think the Vikings could certainly win outright. The Vikings have a new coach in Kevin O’Connell and with an offense full of firepower with Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, there is positivity in Minny. Meanwhile, there’s nothing but questions in Green Bay. With reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers under center, the Packers will always be competitive. but who is he throwing to? Davante Adams is gone. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is gone. Allen Lazard is injured. The Vikes won 34-31 at home last year in this matchup and I think they emerge victorious again.

Cowboys +2.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Let’s look to another home dog and move on to SNF. Two teams with beat-up offensive lines meet. The Cowboys are also missing WR Michael Gallop. Dak Prescott showed up on the injury report this week after tweaking his ankle from using new shoes, but he says he’s good to go on Sunday. For the Bucs, both Chris Godwin and Russell Gage are listed as questionable. Tom Brady is in. But he’s had a wild off-season. Retiring, un-retiring, missing training camp and now reports are coming out that his marriage could be in trouble. Perhaps Week 1 will be a welcomed distraction. Or perhaps he’ll be a little distracted. The Bucs beat the Cowboys 31-29 in Week 1 last season. I’ll side with the home team Cowboys this time and take the points.

Tom Brady & Gisele Bündchen reportedly dealing with marriage issues following un-retirement. https://t.co/1Rqc0njL0E

— Complex Pop Culture (@ComplexPop) September 8, 2022

Ravens -6.5 at Caesars Sportsbook

Finally, I’ll bet one favorite, and it’s one of the bigger ones, but the Ravens -7 has come down to Ravens -6.5 this week. Getting this under a touchdown is key. The Jets were just 4-13 last season and any offseason optimism suffered a setback when starting QB Zach Wilson went down with a knee injury. That means the next man up is ex-Raven Joe Flacco. Flacco won the Super Bowl with Baltimore in 2013, but he’s now 37 and has only started five games in the past two years. Only one of those five came last season. The Jets ranked 29th in rush defense last season. That’s not great news against a Ravens’ rushing attack that ranked third.

Highest team PPG by a QB since 1950
(min. 25 starts)

Patrick Mahomes 30.6
LAMAR JACKSON 29.0
Tom Brady 28.3 pic.twitter.com/a4vaxY4E5r

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 7, 2022

Zach Reger

Panthers PK at Barstool Sportsbook

There are a couple of things to look at here in this one. The first and most obvious is Baker Mayfield. This is a revenge game for him going against his former team, and former teammate Nick Chubb has even said, “We all know Baker, so I don’t know what to expect.” The other thing to look at in this game is how the Browns have fared in Week 1. They have not started off the year with a win in 17 seasons. They have gone 0-16-1 straight up in those 17 games. The Panthers started 3-0 last season with Sam Darnold under center, and I can see them getting off to a similar start by getting a win at home this Sunday.

Ravens -6.5 at Caesars Sportsbook

The Ravens have been outstanding in Week 1. Yes, they lost last year to the Raiders to open their season. Despite that loss, the Ravens have outscored their Week 1 opponents 189-52 since 2017. In those 5 games, they are 4-1 against the spread. Baltimore has not been talked about much this offseason due to a down year last season, but they were one of the most injured teams in the league. I believe the Ravens will bounce back and start their 2022 campaign with some fireworks against a New York Jets team that is led by Joe Flacco.

Lamar Jackson decided to turn down the Ravens’ offer and bet on himself. He now will make $23 million this season and is expected to be franchise tagged after this season. pic.twitter.com/lAuxYCmnbQ

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 9, 2022

Cardinals +6 at BetMGM

This line has moved like crazy. It has gotten to a point where my liking of this play has turned into me loving this play. The Cardinals have gotten off to a strong start the last three seasons. From Weeks 1-7 since 2019, Arizona has gone 16-5 against the spread and is 15-5-1 straight up. That is a 76.2% cover rate through 21 games. The Cardinals are also the home team and since 2018, home underdogs have covered the spread 56.5% of the time. Pair that with the question marks Kansas City’s offense has after losing Tyreek Hill, and I think Arizona can keep this one within a touchdown.

Bob Duff

Steelers +2.5 at  DraftKings Sportsbook

A year ago, the 49ers went to Chicago in Week 1 and got embarrassed. Meanwhile, the Steelers went to Cincinnati and embarrassed the reigning AFC champion Bengals. The year before, Pittsburgh went to Buffalo and whipped the Bills in Week. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is always on top of his game from Game 1. The Steelers are an NFL-best 15-4-3 ATS as a home underdog since 2007 with Tomlin as head coach and 8-2-1 ATS as a home dog since 2017. The Niners are 2-4 straight up in Week 1 with Kyle Shanahan as head coach.

Bills -2.5 at  BetMGM Sportsbook

All summer long, Josh Allen and the Bills have been hearing about how Aaron Rodgers is going to revitalize the Jets. There’s been all this talk about the Jets and the Super Bowl. You think maybe that Buffalo might come into MetLife Stadium a little bit fired up, looking to remind everyone about how the world order in the AFC East has been shaking out in recent campaigns? Amidst all this Rodgers hype, people seem to be forgetting that he’s coming off the worst season of his NFL career.

Commanders -7 at  FanDuel Sportsbook

Did you know that you can get +1300 odds from Caesars Sportsbook on an NFL team going un unprecedented 0-17 this season? It might be worth your while to put a small stipend on this prop with the Arizona Cardinals in mind. The Cardinals could potentially be a generationally bad team. As someone who covered the 0-16 Lions in 2008, I know what that looks like, and it smells exactly like what the Cardinals are cooking. Starting QB Josh Dobbs has never won an NFL game. Arizona is 7-point home underdogs in Week 1 to a Washington team that’s better than people think.

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