Spread in Vikings vs Lions Settling in at Minnesota -2 After Opening as a Pick

• The point spread in Minnesota vs Detroit (Oct. 20th) has bounced back and forth
• The Vikings have settled in as slight favorites over their NFC  North rival in Week 7
• Expect the Lions to remain home underdogs come kickoff

The spread for the Week 7 tilt between division rivals Minnesota (4-2) and Detroit (2-2-1) opened as a pick’em. But as evidenced by the Vikings vs Lions odds & stats, the point spread has moved several times before settling at -2 for the Vikings on the road.

The Lions host the Vikings on Sunday, Oct. 20th (1:00 PM ET) at Ford Field.

 Minnesota vs Detroit: Week 7 Odds

*Odds taken 10/17/19

The first movement saw the Lions become 1-point home chalk, but that didn’t last long.

Why is the Spread Changing So Much?

A narrow point spread for this division rivalry is not surprising. The Vikings rank fourth in the NFL in DVOA, while the Lions are also in the top-half (14th) and have home-field advantage. The Minnesota defense has forced nine turnovers, while the Lions have ten; their offenses average almost identical yardage on a per-game basis (372.3 vs 369.8).

Both teams will also be desperate to avoid a loss, which would drop them further behind the 5-1 Packers in the NFC North race.

Packers really had 13 men on the field and didn't get a penalty??

Asking for the Lions…. pic.twitter.com/b6ybODhTmc

— BLACK ADAM SCHEFTER (@B1ackSchefter) October 15, 2019

The early money was on Detroit after the Lions suffered a narrow road loss to the Packers on Monday Night Football. The one-point setback (23-22) caused controversy as internet memes claimed that several terrible officiating calls cost Detroit the game. Detroit’s other loss was by less than a touchdown to Kansas City, back when Patrick Mahomes was still 100%.

Detroit is hard to read with five very close contests.

As for Minnesota, they lost to Chicago by 10 two weeks ago and Green Bay by five in Week 2. Besides the Packers, their other common opponent is the Eagles, who lost to both these NFC North teams.

Minnesota dominated Philly 38-20 last Sunday, while the Lions squeezed out a 27-23 road win over the Eagles in Week 3.

Will the Spread Keep Moving?

Injury updates, especially for Detroit’s defense and Minnesota’s offensive line, will be the biggest factor when it comes to further line movement.

Defensive lineman A’Shawn Robinson returned for Detroit last week versus Green Bay, but he is questionable now.

Fellow DL Da’Shawn Hand has missed most of the season with an elbow injury and is questionable again this week. Corner Darius Slay and defensive tackle Mike Daniels earned questionable listings on Detroit’s injury report Wednesday, as well.

Mike Daniels and AO didn’t practice.

Nino, A’ Shawn Robinson, Da’Shawn Hand, Darius Slay, Logan Thomas and Rick Wagner were limited.

Matthew Stafford had a full practice. #OnePride https://t.co/OCxH2J7RPX

— Tony Dombrowski (@tonydombrowski) October 16, 2019

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Meanwhile, Minnesota tackle Riley Reiff sat out Wednesday’s practice and remains questionable after leaving Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. Guard Josh Kline missed Sunday’s game versus the Eagles joins Reiff with a questionable tag.

The Vikings own the third-ranked rushing attack (159.0 yards per game) while the Lions gives up the sixth-most rushing yards per game (133.8 YPG). Detroit getting Hand and Robinson back versus Minnesota would jolt the run defense.

The Vikings could lose their advantage in the run game and in spread formations without Reiff’s physicality at left tackle.

Minnesota Should Stay Favorites

Ultimately, Minnesota will probably stay the favorite, coming off consecutive dominant wins. They finally figured out their passing game with quarterback Kirk Cousins throwing four touchdowns to only one interception last week. Granted, that came against a decimated Eagle secondary.)

.@stefondiggs is out here feasting today!#Skol pic.twitter.com/3Rbl9mtSPy

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 13, 2019

Embattled wide receiver Stefon Diggs caught three of Cousins’ TD strikes, despite trade rumors continuing to follow him around. That pass game momentum should help the Vikings combat any more struggles from Dalvin Cook and the running game, even if the Lions defensive line gets their starters back or Minnesota suffers any more o-line injuries.

 Minnesota’s defense, which ranks fifth in yards per game, will help them win this game by at least a field goal. Consider betting the Vikings now or risk the spread going to 2.5 or 3.0 at kickoff.