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Spread and Total Moving Rapidly in Giants vs Patriots Week 6 TNF Matchup

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 8:40 PM PDT

Daniel Jones and the Giants were shut down in week 5 against the Vikings. What's in store for Daniel Jones when he meets the top-rated Patriots defense on Thursday night? Photo from @njdotcom (Twitter).
  • Betting odds on Thursday Night’s Giants-Patriots game keeps moving
  • Patriots one of two NFL teams still undefeated heading into Week 6
  • Read below for our best bet and if the lines will settle before kickoff

Rain is expected in the forecast in Foxboro for Week 6’s Thursday Night Football tilt between the visiting New York Giants and New England Patriots.

On the betting side, the Giants vs Patriots odds have already seen their fair share of gusty winds.

New York Giants vs New England Patriots Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under Odds
New York Giants +652 +16 (-109) Over 42.0 (-110)
New England Patriots -975 -16 (-111) Under 42.0 (-110)

Odds taken 10/08/19

Sportsbooks opened the spread with New England giving a whopping 15 points – already their fourth game of the year with a line at at least 15.  At one point, the line had moved to as high as -17, but it’s moved back down a point to Patriots -16.

Meanwhile, the total opened at 46.5 and has come all the way down to 42. Let’s try to get a gauge on this matchup, and where you should be leaning.

Patriots Defense the Best in the NFL

There are some very tough defenses in the NFL: the Bills, the 49ers, the Vikings and anyone playing the New York Jets in a given week, but the Patriots are moving to some historically insane numbers.

I mean, the no passing touchdowns allowed would be the tale of the tape for any defense, but that’s just one of a myriad of impressive stats that New England’s D boasts. Through five games, they have racked up 11 interceptions and piled on 24 sacks, both tops in the NFL. They are surrendering a paltry 238.4 yards a game (a league-low 4.1 yards a play) and have surrendered a total of 34 points on the year.

https://twitter.com/LBNFL/status/1176929745495367680

To put that in perspective, nine teams broke the 30-point plateau this week. 

That Pats unit, coupled with our first look at how Daniel Jones and the Giants offense looked against a legitimate defense in Week 5 is likely why we’re seeing the total drop.

The Vikings laid waste to the G-Men, making Jones uncomfortable for the first time since taking over the reigns from Eli Manning in Week 3. Jones  was under siege the entire game, sacked four times and pressured countless others. He went just 21-for-38 for 182 yards, one touchdown and one interception for a lowly passer rating of 65.9.

Giving Bill Belichick a chance to pick apart a rookie quarterback is one thing – giving him all the ingredients to bake the disaster any way he chooses is almost criminal.

Will this Line be Moving?

It’s already highly unlikely that Giants’ running back Saquon Barkley will play Thursday, while his backup Wayne Gallman is questionable with a concussion. Also questionable are receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram.

You never know what to expect with a Patriots’ injury report, but it does list Tom Brady’s top two receivers Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon as questionable, along with fellow receiver Philip Dorsett who’s nursing a hamstring injury.

https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/1180900371063083008

If any Giants skill players are out, that line will creep up. It would likely take all three Patriots receivers to be sidelined and Barkley returning to the New York lineup for the line to move the other way.

What’s the Best Bet to Make?

New England only failed to cover a mammoth spread against the Jets in Week 3, when they allowed a special teams field goal and their backup QB threw a pick-six. Otherwise, they just grind teams to dust defensively, and most times march their offense down the field methodically.

This will likely be the final time the Patriots and Manning will share a competitive field again – though, barring a Jones injury, Eli will be holding a clipboard. Manning and his Giants teams in 2007 and 2011 are the only ones that can boast that they’ve toppled this Belichick-Brady dynasty. I think that means something to the cornerstones of the Pats.

Take the Pats now at -16, and definitely don’t wait to jump on that over.

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