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Teddy Bridgewater Week 3 Props: Over/Under Passing Yards Listed at 222.5

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated May 14, 2020 · 3:50 PM PDT

Teddy Bridgewater will try to lead the Saints to a win over the Seahawks in place of Drew Brees. Photo from @Tmomentpolitic (Twitter).
  • Teddy Bridgewater tries to keep Saints afloat while Drew Brees nurses thumb injury
  • NFL’s most expensive backup was named to Pro Bowl in 2015
  • Finding the best bets for Bridgewater’s passing props

The Saints are cashing in on the NFL’s most expensive insurance policy.

With Drew Brees down at least six weeks with a thumb injury, Teddy Bridgewater, the NFL’s highest paid backup ($7.25 million salary this year), will get his first meaningful start in an NFL game since the 2015 campaign.

Will Sean Payton game manage him, or is he confident in letting him run with one of the league’s traditionally potent offenses?

Let’s run through Bridgewater passing props for the Saints’ starting pivot in Week 3, as New Orleans is in the Pacific Northwest to take on the Seahawks.

Teddy Bridgewater Pass Attempts in Week 3

Line Odds
Over 32.5 -120
Under 32.5 -120

*Odds from 20/09/19

Analysis: Fitting, as the Saints last year averaged 32.4 pass attempts through 16 games. Through this season’s small sample size, New Orleans QB’s have thrown 78 passes through two games, and Bridgewater, in relief work, went 17-for-30 for 165 yards, with no touchdowns and no interceptions.

Normally, a trip to Seattle with a backup QB would be a death knell, and coaches would gameplan to escape without getting totally whipped. But as Andy Dalton proved in Week 1, these aren’t the LOB-era ‘Hawks anymore.

However, this pick is more for the fact that the Saints are meeting Russell Wilson, who’s playing so well that I expect the Saints to have to, at some point, abandon the running game as they play catch-up.

The pick: Over 32.5 attempts (-120)

Teddy Bridgewater Completions in Week 3

Line Odds
Over 21 -120
Under 21 -120

Analysis: His last meaningful body of work was the 2015 season, and Bridgewater has attempted  55 passes as an NFL quarterback since. A gruesome knee injury that almost cost him his leg the following training camp definitely makes him a different player.

In his two starts since the injury, he’s failed to come close to 21 completions. And as a starter in 2015, he had 20 or fewer completions 11 times in 16 games.

I’m sure the Saints will want to feature a strong running game to take pressure off him, but they’re going up against a Seattle defense ranked 26th in passing yards allowed per game, and is fourth against the run, surrendering just 57.5 yards a contest through two games.

In last week’s loss to the Rams, the Saints managed 57 yards rushing on 20 carries.

The pick: Over 21 completions (-120)

Teddy Bridgewater Passing Yards in Week 3

Line Odds
Over 222.5 -120
Under 222.5 -120

Analysis: Teddy-Two-Gloves was never a bombs-away gunslinger, but in his short stint of play since coming back, he’s locked into the short passing game, and foregoing any shots over the top of the defense. Bridgewater has completed 56.4% of his passes while averaging a paltry 5.1 yards per attempt.

As the Rams poured it on offensively, the Saints showed little urgency to fire back. Obviously, with a full week to prepare, he should be better, but in Los Angeles, 15 of Bridgewater’s 17 completions came on passes thrown within seven yards of the line of scrimmage.

He has a true game-breaker in receiver in Michael Thomas, but Thomas was used more a safety blanket than a threat, hauling in 10 passes for 89 yards in the game. If deployed properly, Thomas and Alvin Kamara should be heavily featured, as they can lift Bridgewater to greater heights.

Look at the Bengals game, and, even to some extent the Steelers game – who themselves employed their own backup in Mason Rudolph when Ben Roethlisberger went down. There are plays all over the field that can be made against the Seahawks defense.

The pick: Under 222.5 yards passing (-120)

Teddy Bridgewater Rushing Yards in Week 3

Line Odds
Over 7.5 -120
Under 7.5 -120

Analysis: If the Saints had their way, this one would be a definite under. That means Bridgewater is getting the protection he needs, and not being forced to move out of the pocket to gain yards. He was sacked twice against the Rams, but was pressured on 35.3% of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus stats. If that’s that case, perhaps he does step up in the pocket and find a soft zone where he can get some plus yards.

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While running is definitely not his forte, for his career, Bridgewater has surpassed that meager rushing total 18 times in each of his first two seasons in the NFL pre-injury, and has a career average of 11.3 rushing yards per game.

The pick: Over 7.5 yards rushing (-120)

Teddy Bridgewater TD Passes in Week 3

Line Odds
Over 1.5 +115
Under 1.5 -155

Analysis: Even in his Pro Bowl season, Bridgewater threw just 14 touchdown passes, and broke the 1.5 threshold twice. While on his journey to recovery and to this point, he’s thrown just one major across his seven appearances over the past three seasons.

Payton surely has devised a package that will help Bridgewater succeed. If I’m wagering from the heart, I’m taking the over all day. I hope and pray that I’m wrong, because if anyone deserves a 300-yard 4-TD game to remind everyone how excellent a QB he was at one time, it’s this guy.

The pick: Under 1.5 TD passes (-155)

Teddy Bridgewater Interceptions in Week 3

Line Odds
Over 0.5 -150
Under 0.5 +110

Analysis: The last interception Bridgewater threw was January 1, 2016, in a win over the Packers. Predicting turnovers is never an easy one, but with the expectation that the Saints will be running much of their same offensive package, which involves throwing the football more and potentially into deeper areas of the field, there’s a greater chance of the Seahawks picking one off.

The pick: Over 0.5 interceptions (-150)

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