Titans Super Bowl Odds Continue Improving Ahead of Derrick Henry’s Return

• Derrick Henry was designated to return from Injured Reserve by the Titans
• The Running Back was an MVP candidate when he was placed on IR with a foot injury following Week 8
• See the updated Tennessee Titans Super Bowl odds following the news of Henry practicing

The Tennessee Titans are tied for top spot in the AFC ahead of Week 18. If they win, they guarantee themselves a bye for Wild Card weekend.

While that week off has proven to be important to countless Super Bowl runs in the past, it may have added importance for the Titans.

Titans officially designated RB Derrick Henry to return off IR today.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 5, 2022

It gives Derrick Henry an extra week to get into fighting shape for the Divisional round, rather than potentially rushing him back.

With the potential top seed in the AFC set to get back one of the best running backs in the NFL in time for the playoffs, just how does it alter their Super Bowl odds?

Tennessee Titans Super Bowl Odds Movement

*Odds as of January 5th from FanDuel

On the eve of the regular season, Tennessee opened at 10th on the Super Bowl odds. While there wasn’t much movement over the first month of the season, they started climbing the ladder as Derrick Henry started dominating. But then Week 8 happened, with Henry breaking his foot. Their odds took a drastic turn in just 24 hours between October 31st and November 1st.

The Titans had rebounded a bit afterwards, but back-to-back losses entering their bye, including a 36-13 road loss to the Patriots dropped them to +2200.

FanDuel bumped the Titans up slightly with the news of Henry’s return, and it cost the Cowboys. Dallas slid from +1100 to +1200.

Derrick Henry’s MVP Pace

Simply put, Derrick Henry was destroying his competition through eight weeks of the NFL season.

Entering Week 8, the week Henry suffered his foot injury, The King seemed like a lock to log back-to-back 2,000 yard seasons.

In fact, at that point he had already ran for 869 yards, almost 300 more than Jonathan Taylor.

Per Game Averages: Derrick Henry vs Jonathan Taylor

Considering where Taylor is now in the MVP race, it’s scary to think what Henry would’ve done had he stayed healthy.

There's just one week left in the regular season and Derrick Henry – who has been out since Halloween – is still 6th in the NFL in rushing yards.

🤯🤯🤯

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 5, 2022

In case you’re wondering, Henry was on pace for over 400 carries, 1,991 yards and 22 rushing touchdowns. Taylor’s current totals in those categories? 317 carries, 1,734 yards and 18 touchdowns.

Titans Rushing Performance Without Henry

Tennessee lost the league’s leading rusher when they were sitting at 6-2. They struggled with other injuries, but actually ended up moving to 8-2. Then came a four game stretch around their bye week when they went 1-3.

The Titans have rebounded however, winning their last two, with a very winnable matchup against the Texans this week.

But there was definitely an adjustment period when The King went down.

Titans Averages With and Without Henry

Somewhat amazingly, the Titans recorded three games where they ran for 198 yards or more without Henry. Granted the Patriots had no interest in stopping the run and the Steelers were a week removed from getting gashed by Dalvin Cook, but still. It’s a credit to their coaching staff.

The King is back. 👑 @KingHenry_2 @Titans pic.twitter.com/MbUwhz0kzf

— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) January 5, 2022

While the Adrian Peterson experiment failed, D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard have made it so the Titans didn’t have to alter their approach too much. But a drop off is still a drop off, and there’s no mistaking what Henry brings to the table.

AFC Playoff Teams vs The Run

Excluding the Titans, there are four teams in the AFC that have clinched a spot in the NFL playoff bracket: the Chiefs, Bengals, Bills and Patriots. Three of those four are in the upper half of the NFL when it comes to yards allowed. Three of the five bubble teams are top 12, with the Steelers and Chargers having allowed the second and third most rushing yards respectively.

Yes, Derrick Henry can still run. #Titans pic.twitter.com/U4tugdd1fG

— Teresa Walker (@TeresaMWalker) January 5, 2022

The Steelers, Chargers, Chiefs, Patriots and Colts are all allowing 4.5 yards-per-carry or more this season. Los Angeles, Pittsburgh and Kansas City have all given up 113+ first downs on the ground.

The stoutest run defense in the AFC belongs to the Baltimore Ravens. But they need the most to go right to even have a chance at making the playoffs.

Titans Worth It In Flawed AFC Picture

We’ve seen what Derrick Henry can do come playoff time. It ain’t pretty…unless you’re a Titans fan that is.

The AFC is filled with flawed teams this year. There is no juggernaut, and you can make a case for and against almost every team in the race.

But only one team is getting back the man who undoubtedly would have run for 1,500+ yards for a third-straight season.

We know what kind of football wins in the playoffs. It’s the kind Mike Vrabel’s team likes to play.

If The King is healthy, there’s no better team to back.