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Upset Picks for Week 4 in the NFL – Fading Former MVPs and Hoping For Fitzmagic

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Oct 3, 2020 · 7:40 AM PDT

Ryan Fitzpatrick waiting for snap, pointing
Can the Miami Dolphins produce some Fitzmagic at home against the favored Seattle Seahawks? Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire
  • Will the soaring Seahawks get tripped up in Miami by the Dolphins?
  • Will Bill Belichick be able to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense?
  • Last week’s picks went 2-1, winning 2.7 units. We’re now 6-2 on the year and up 7.85 units

Three weeks. Three sets of winning picks. What more do I need to say?

After scouring the Week 4 odds for upset picks, I hope all the success we’ve had over the first month is fresh in your mind, because you’re probably not going to like any of these plays.

However, we only need one of them to come through this week to turn a profit.

Dolphins Shut Down Seahawks

Russell Wilson is the MVP favorite. Seattle is undefeated and scoring at will. What am I doing here?

Well, there’s an angle that might be getting overlooked in the Seahawks vs Dolphins betting trends.

Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins Odds

Team Moneyline
Seattle Seahawks -260
Miami Dolphins +215

Odds taken Oct. 2nd from FanDuel

The Seahawks haven’t won a game in the state of Florida since 2006.

Travelling from the cool Pacific Northwest to the humid swamps of the Sunshine State must be having an adverse effect on Seahawks players. We know they haven’t struggled there because the local teams have been good.

Wilson, for his part, is 0-3 in Florida, including a trip to Tampa in 2016 that stands as one of his worst games as a professional.

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Seattle is banged up heading into this one. Chris Carson could miss the game on offense, a big loss even with the team’s new “pass-happy” approach. Defensively, the Seahawks will be down Quinton Dunbar, Jordyn Brooks, and their best pass rusher, safety Jamal Adams.


Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the most reliable quarterback in the NFL, but he can still muster up stretches of “Fitzmagic.” Against a historically bad Seahawks pass defense, the bearded one should have a quality outing.

As for defense, Miami’s only injury is at cornerback, where Byron Jones is attempting to work his way back for this weekend. If he can join Xavien Howard on the field, the Phins should be able to do a decent job at slowing down Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.

Miami was the most profitable team to play on the moneyline last season, thanks to a few stunning upsets. Look for Brian Flores’ scrappy team to pull off another one here.

Pick: 1 unit on Dolphins moneyline (+215)

Chargers Beat Bucs in Tampa

A week after fading the Chargers, we’re going to back them in a spot that screams “trap game” for the Buccaneers.

Los Angles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds

Team Moneyline
Los Angeles Chargers +270
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -315

Odds taken Oct. 2nd from DraftKings

The Bolts vs Bucs odds have Tampa giving a touchdown at home. But coming off back-to-back blowouts and with a Thursday nighter against the undefeated Bears looming, Tampa could get caught looking past these perennially banged-up Chargers.

Los Angeles was dealt another blow on defense last week, when Chris Harris Jr. left with a foot injury. The corner is the fifth starter on that defense to head to IR this season, yet they’ve still managed to rank in the top 12 in defensive DVOA.

Even better for LA, they won’t be facing a full-strength Tampa offense: Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette were ruled out for Sunday while Scotty Miller’s status is up in the air.

Old man Brady has had two nice outings in a row, albeit against bad pass defenses. He’s still missing on some routine throws and with a depleted receiving corps, he’ll have to be sharper this weekend. The Bolts still have some ballhawks in their secondary with Casey Hayward and Desmond King.

Meanwhile, Justin Herbert has led the Chargers to over 400 yards of offense in each of his first two starts. Three lost fumbles doomed them against Carolina, but if they can protect the ball better this week, they’ll be right in this game.

Pick: 1 unit on Chargers moneyline (+270)

Patriots Upset the Champs

Last week, I was adamant that you should back the Chiefs as rare underdogs. This week, an even rarer occurrence has me going against the reigning champions.

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Team Moneyline
New England Patriots +260
Kansas City Chiefs -305

Odds taken Oct. 2nd from DraftKings

The Patriots vs Chiefs odds have Bill Belichick’s team as a seven-point underdog, marking just the third time since 2002 that New England has been getting that many points.

The Ravens thought they had the blueprint to beat Kansas City, coming out and running the ball on six of their first seven plays to great effect. Unfortunately, the run-heavy, control-the-clock gameplan only works when your defense actually makes a stop. But Belichick’s D should be able to rise to the occasion once again.

Kansas City came into Foxborough last year as underdogs and left with a 23-16 win. Those 23 points remain tied for the Chiefs’ lowest offensive output during their current 12-game win streak. But while Belichick’s defense performed reasonably well against Andy Reid’s offense, Tom Brady and company couldn’t move the ball, converting just 2-of-12 on third down.

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With Cam Newton under center, the Patriots are far better equipped to exploit Kansas City’s famously awful run defense. New England has the top rushing offense in DVOA through three weeks.

The Patriots are 12-6 straight up since 2010 as underdogs. If the Chiefs are going to suffer a loss this season, this seems like the spot where it could happen.

Pick: 1 unit on Patriots moneyline (+260)

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