Upset Picks for Week 4 in the NFL – Fading Former MVPs and Hoping For Fitzmagic
- Will the soaring Seahawks get tripped up in Miami by the Dolphins?
- Will Bill Belichick be able to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense?
- Last week’s picks went 2-1, winning 2.7 units. We’re now 6-2 on the year and up 7.85 units
Three weeks. Three sets of winning picks. What more do I need to say?
After scouring the Week 4 odds for upset picks, I hope all the success we’ve had over the first month is fresh in your mind, because you’re probably not going to like any of these plays.
However, we only need one of them to come through this week to turn a profit.
Dolphins Shut Down Seahawks
Russell Wilson is the MVP favorite. Seattle is undefeated and scoring at will. What am I doing here?
Well, there’s an angle that might be getting overlooked in the Seahawks vs Dolphins betting trends.
Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins Odds
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | -260 |
| Miami Dolphins | +215 |
Odds taken Oct. 2nd from FanDuel
The Seahawks haven’t won a game in the state of Florida since 2006.
Travelling from the cool Pacific Northwest to the humid swamps of the Sunshine State must be having an adverse effect on Seahawks players. We know they haven’t struggled there because the local teams have been good.
Wilson, for his part, is 0-3 in Florida, including a trip to Tampa in 2016 that stands as one of his worst games as a professional.
Seattle is banged up heading into this one. Chris Carson could miss the game on offense, a big loss even with the team’s new “pass-happy” approach. Defensively, the Seahawks will be down Quinton Dunbar, Jordyn Brooks, and their best pass rusher, safety Jamal Adams.
https://twitter.com/30AcreFortress/status/1311361659307323393
Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the most reliable quarterback in the NFL, but he can still muster up stretches of “Fitzmagic.” Against a historically bad Seahawks pass defense, the bearded one should have a quality outing.
FITZMAGIC IS BYKE 🔥
He’s 11/11 and has the Dolphins leading the Jags 21-7
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/kYiZ8eX6uu
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 25, 2020
As for defense, Miami’s only injury is at cornerback, where Byron Jones is attempting to work his way back for this weekend. If he can join Xavien Howard on the field, the Phins should be able to do a decent job at slowing down Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.
Miami was the most profitable team to play on the moneyline last season, thanks to a few stunning upsets. Look for Brian Flores’ scrappy team to pull off another one here.
Pick: 1 unit on Dolphins moneyline (+215)
Chargers Beat Bucs in Tampa
A week after fading the Chargers, we’re going to back them in a spot that screams “trap game” for the Buccaneers.
Los Angles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | +270 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -315 |
Odds taken Oct. 2nd from DraftKings
The Bolts vs Bucs odds have Tampa giving a touchdown at home. But coming off back-to-back blowouts and with a Thursday nighter against the undefeated Bears looming, Tampa could get caught looking past these perennially banged-up Chargers.
Los Angeles was dealt another blow on defense last week, when Chris Harris Jr. left with a foot injury. The corner is the fifth starter on that defense to head to IR this season, yet they’ve still managed to rank in the top 12 in defensive DVOA.
Chargers are solid on defense — fourth in scoring defense, eighth in total defense. Best in the league in red zone (only 22 percent TDs) thanks to Carolina going 1-for-6 (!) against them last week. Their defense has just five snaps in goal-to-go situations in three games.
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) October 1, 2020
Even better for LA, they won’t be facing a full-strength Tampa offense: Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette were ruled out for Sunday while Scotty Miller’s status is up in the air.
Both Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin are officially out for Sunday against the Chargers. They’re waiting to see on Scotty Miller.
— JennaLaineESPN (@JennaLaineESPN) October 2, 2020
Old man Brady has had two nice outings in a row, albeit against bad pass defenses. He’s still missing on some routine throws and with a depleted receiving corps, he’ll have to be sharper this weekend. The Bolts still have some ballhawks in their secondary with Casey Hayward and Desmond King.
Meanwhile, Justin Herbert has led the Chargers to over 400 yards of offense in each of his first two starts. Three lost fumbles doomed them against Carolina, but if they can protect the ball better this week, they’ll be right in this game.
Pick: 1 unit on Chargers moneyline (+270)
Patriots Upset the Champs
Last week, I was adamant that you should back the Chiefs as rare underdogs. This week, an even rarer occurrence has me going against the reigning champions.
New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +260 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -305 |
Odds taken Oct. 2nd from DraftKings
The Patriots vs Chiefs odds have Bill Belichick’s team as a seven-point underdog, marking just the third time since 2002 that New England has been getting that many points.
This is just the 3rd time since the Patriots won Super Bowl XXXVI that they have been at least a 7-point underdog.
The others, via @ESPNStatsInfo:
Week 1 of '16 with Tom Brady serving NFL suspension (upset Cardinals)
Week 17 of '09 at Texans (playoff seed locked; lost by 7)
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) September 30, 2020
The Ravens thought they had the blueprint to beat Kansas City, coming out and running the ball on six of their first seven plays to great effect. Unfortunately, the run-heavy, control-the-clock gameplan only works when your defense actually makes a stop. But Belichick’s D should be able to rise to the occasion once again.
WATCH: early thoughts from Bill Belichick on the Chiefs
"they are really good, it starts with the MVP Quarterback"
"A lot to stop, just have to play good team defense, there is no one guy you can key on"#Patriots #Chiefs @wpri12 #NENation pic.twitter.com/EwC7Z8HMSs
— Yianni Kourakis (@WPBF_Yianni) September 28, 2020
Kansas City came into Foxborough last year as underdogs and left with a 23-16 win. Those 23 points remain tied for the Chiefs’ lowest offensive output during their current 12-game win streak. But while Belichick’s defense performed reasonably well against Andy Reid’s offense, Tom Brady and company couldn’t move the ball, converting just 2-of-12 on third down.
With Cam Newton under center, the Patriots are far better equipped to exploit Kansas City’s famously awful run defense. New England has the top rushing offense in DVOA through three weeks.
The Patriots are 12-6 straight up since 2010 as underdogs. If the Chiefs are going to suffer a loss this season, this seems like the spot where it could happen.
Pick: 1 unit on Patriots moneyline (+260)
Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.
