Week 14 NFL Props – Best Team and Player Prop Bets for Sunday, December 13

• With 14 NFL game scheduled for Sunday, December 13, we have thousands of team and player props available
• Our props from last week went 3-5
• Have a look at all the player props available for Week 14 and get our best bets below

The bankroll got roughed up a little last week. I was just 3-5 on my prop bets, thanks to only one of the six players I bet on to score a touchdown coming through – Taysom Hill not finding the endzone for the first time as New Orleans’ starting quarterback hurt!

With all bye weeks now out of the way, we have 14 games on this Sunday, adding even more betting opportunities to our plates. (As usual, you’ll be able to find the Sunday Night Football props in a separate post.)

I’m picking out a couple quarterbacks and a tight end to go over/under their projected stats and have a handful more players I like to score a touchdown in Week 14. But first, here’s everything on the board right now:

Week 14 NFL Player Props

Odds as of December 12

Justin Herbert Lights Up the Falcons Defense

Justin Herbert is coming off the two worst starts of his career. He combined for one touchdown and three interceptions in those games, posting a 59.4 passer rating over the two-week span. Is this NFL defenses catching up to Herbert?

I don’t think so. I believe this is a matter of the Chargers being so grossly overcoached by Bill Belichick and Sean McDermott, two of the league’s best defensive coaches, in those games. I’m not here to tell you Raheem Morris is a bad coach, but he’s not up to the standard LA has recently dealt with.

Justin Herbert vs Patriots today: 209 total yards, 0 TD, 2 INT

Justin Herbert in 10 other games: 320 total yards/game, 26 total TD, 7 INT

Kyler Murray vs Patriots last week: 201 total yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

Kyler Murray in 11 other games: 314 total yards/game, 32 total TD, 9 INT

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 7, 2020

In Herbert’s previous seven games, the rookie had thrown for 20 touchdowns, an average of 2.9 per game. He threw for at least two touchdowns in every single one of those games. He also should have thrown for two against the aforementioned Bills in Week 12, but they completely mismanaged the final 20ish seconds after completing their Hail Mary.

The Falcons have given up 24 passing touchdowns this season, the eighth-most in the NFL, and have allowed at least two in seven of 12 games. Herbert’s -155 odds to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns imply a 60.78% probability. I have his probability of going over much closer to 80%.

Pick: Justin Herbert over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-155) – 1.5 units

Derek Carr Goes Under on Passing Touchdowns

The Indianapolis Colts defense has not allowed a passing touchdown in their last seven quarters, and have only surrendered a total of 15 passing touchdowns this season, third-fewest in the NFL.

Nine of the 15 came in three games: Week 1 against Jacksonville, a game they clearly were caught off guard in (and eliminated me from a few survivor pools …); Week 8 against Detroit when they were up big; and Week 11 against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

The Colts have only allowed more than one passing touchdown in one other game this season, which means they’ve allowed less than two in eight of 12 games this season.

Derek Carr is coming off a three-touchdown performance in Week 13 against the Jets, but he’s only gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns in three of his last six. In two of those six games, he had no passing touchdowns.

This is a Colts defense that’s clicking, and I like them to show up in a big way against Las Vegas in Week 14, a game with major playoff implications. The +120 odds on Carr going under 1.5 passing touchdowns presents tremendous value.

Pick: Derek Carr under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+120) – 1 unit

Noah Fant Goes Over on Receiving Yards

Broncos tight end Noah Fant is the second-most targeted pass-catcher on the team, seeing 62 passes this season. He’s turned those targets into 44 receptions for 492 yards, which comes to just 44.7 yards per game. That average goes up to 49.8 yards per game when Drew Lock has been under center.

Denver will face an average-at-best pass defense in Carolina on Sunday, who is allowing 249.3 yards per game through the air, 58.2 of those yards have come to tight ends – the fifth-most in the NFL.

Noah Fant torches Bashaud Breeland to start the game#DENvsKC pic.twitter.com/nLq427CKot

— Slightly Biased (@BiasedSlightly) December 7, 2020

Per PFF, Fant has a 33% advantage in his projected matchup against Tahir Whitehead. Fant has gone over 40.5 receiving yards in seven of his 11 games this season, and in six of the eight games where Lock has been under center. This over will cash early.

Pick: Noah Fant over 40.5 receiving yards (-112) – 1 unit

Odds to Score a Touchdown in Week 14

Picks to Score a Touchdown in Week 14

I see a lot of value in the odds to score a touchdown for Week 14 that I just can’t lay off of. Here’s who I like to find the end zone and why:

1. Austin Ekeler anytime touchdown (+110): Austin Ekeler has just one touchdown in six games this season. The Chargers only have eight rushing touchdowns as a team, which is the fourth-fewest in the league. I’m not betting on Ekeler specifically running one in on Sunday against the Falcons, but he will cross the goal line with the ball. (1 unit)
2. Keenan Allen anytime touchdown (+135): This is a great value bet! Allen had a receiving touchdown in five straight entering Week 13, and has a touchdown in seven of Justin Herbert’s 11 starts. I’m already on Herbert to go over 1.5 touchdown passes, and Allen has been on the receiving end of seven of his 23 touchdown passes. (1 unit)
3. David Montgomery anytime touchdown (+105): Montgomery found the endzone twice last week against a bad Lions defense, and gets an even worse run defense in Houston this Sunday. The Texans have allowed the second-most rushing yards this season and 16 rushing touchdowns (seventh-most). Matt Nagy simply does not trust Mitchell Trubisky in the red zone. (1 unit)
4. Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (+300): The Saints have allowed just five rushing touchdowns this season, the fewest in the NFL. I don’t foresee them giving one up to Hurts early, but I like the prospects of some garbage time in this one. If Philadelphia does manage to reach the red zone, I like Doug Pederson to keep the ball on the ground. (0.5 units)
5. CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown (+180): The Cowboys’ rookie WR has caught a touchdown in two of his last four games and is averaging 7.3 targets per game in that span. Against a bad Bengals defense that’s given up 23 touchdowns through the air, I like Lamb to make it three of his last five. (0.5 units)
6. Deshaun Watson anytime touchdown (+275): Watson has a rushing touchdown in two of his last three. He scored seven rushing touchdowns in 2019 and five in 2018, so he’s a little behind pace this season with just three in 12 games. He faces a stingy Bears defense in Week 14 and will do so without David Johnson (and the list of wide receivers they haven’t had available for a bit). I don’t foresee the Texans being shutout and like Watson to take matters into his own hands when Houston gets into the red zone. (0.5 units)
7. Wayne Gallman anytime touchdown (+120): The Cardinals have given up five rushing touchdowns in their last two games. Gallman had 135 rushing yards against the Seahawks last week, but watched Alfred Morris steal two goal line touchdowns from him. Gallman had a touchdown in five straight games heading into Week 13, and I’m betting on him to start another streak. (1 unit)