Week 4 NFL Against the Spread Picks
- Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, October 3rd
- Our best bets last week were 1-2 (2021 season: 3-6, -3.5 units)
- Read below for analysis on the Week 4 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks
Week 4 on the NFL schedule continues Sunday (October 3rd) with 13 more games. With such a loaded slate there’s plenty of value to be found in the ATS market, and it starts with the Seattle Seahawks in San Francisco.
Week 4 ATS Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers | SF (-3) | SEA (+3) | 1 |
| Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos | BAL (-1) | BAL (-1) | 1 |
| Cleveland Browns vs Minnesota Vikings | CLE (-2.5) | MIN (+2.5) | 1 |
Odds as of Sept. 30th at FanDuel and DraftKings. See bottom for rest of Week 4 Picks.
Russell Wilson and Co. have dropped back-to-back outings, but this team could easily be 3-0 if they’d just keep their foot on the gas.
Seahawks Upset 49ers
The Seahawks are 3-point underdogs versus the 49ers, fresh off an ugly loss to the Minnesota Vikings. For the second straight game, Seattle blew a double-digit lead, this time failing to score over the final 41 minutes.
The Seahawks haven’t lost three straight since 2011, the year prior to Wilson’s arrival, and Russ has been a cover machine in his career following back-to-back losses. In 15 career games following two straight defeats, Wilson is an incredible 13-2 ATS.
Best passer ratings through week 3…
Russell Wilson – 133.6
Matthew Stafford – 129.8
Tyrod Taylor – 122.9
Kirk Cousins – 118.3
Teddy Bridgewater – 116.4
Kyler Murray – 113.4
Patrick Mahomes – 111.7
Dak Prescott – 110.1
Tom Brady – 109.3
Joe Burrow – 105.4— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) September 29, 2021
There’s nothing wrong with Seattle’s offense, as they rank in the top half of the league in yards and points per game, it’s the defense that has let them down. Fortunately for them, the 49ers offense isn’t one to fear.
San Fran ranks below league average in yards per game, while Jimmy Garoppolo is Pro Football Focus’ 28th highest graded QB. Kyle Shanahan has so little confidence in Jimmy G, that he replaces him in the red zone on fourth and goal, and the 49ers continue to underuse George Kittle, one of the biggest weapons in the NFL.
Good things happen when you feed George Kittle ✍️ #49ers || #FTTB pic.twitter.com/M1RXDpIq6r
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) September 27, 2021
San Fran’s once vaunted defense ranks 19th in 2021 in DVOA, while Shanahan is just 8-19-1 as a favorite with the Niners.
Ravens Beat Up Broncos
Next up, is the Baltimore Ravens who are 1-point favorites over the Denver Broncos. The Ravens actually opened as 1-point underdogs but have been bet up to a point favorite, and I for one am buying the line move.
Sure, the Broncos are 3-0, but let’s look at their competition. They’ve beaten both New York teams and Jacksonville, who are a combined 0-10. Those three teams all boast bottom-14 offenses, with the Jets and Jags ranking 31st and 32nd per PFF’s metrics.
The Broncos are beat up at receiver, with both Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler unavailable for this contest, while both starting offensive guards have yet to practice this week.
Baltimore on the other hand, needed a miracle Justin Tucker field goal to get past Detroit, but that’s only because Marquise Brown literally dropped multiple touchdown passes.
https://twitter.com/RookieHigh/status/1442196335755550725
While Denver is struggling with injuries, the Ravens are getting healthy. Stud corner Jimmy Smith will be back on Sunday, as will Brandon Williams, one of the league’s premier run stuffing nose tackles.
Since 2017, Baltimore is 21-10-3 ATS on the road, the best coverage percentage of any NFL team.
Vikings Cover vs Browns
We mentioned earlier that Seattle could easily be 3-0 this season, but the same can be said for Minnesota as well. The 1-2 Vikings lost in overtime in Week 1, blew a potential game winning field goal in Week 2, before upsetting the Seahawks last week. Minnesota is a 2.5-point underdog versus Cleveland in Week 4, looking to beat the number for the third straight week.
Kirk Cousins owns the league’s fourth best passer rating, while Minny has scored at least 26 points per game in the first three weeks for the first time since 1964.
Kirk Cousins: 152.4 Passer Rating on 10+ yard throws this season
1st among all QBs 🥇 pic.twitter.com/1GpCGeEp0f
— PFF (@PFF) September 27, 2021
Cleveland’s defense meanwhile, looked like world beaters against rookie Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears in Week 3, but don’t forget they coughed up 33 points to Kansas City in Week 1, and 14 points to the Tyrod Taylor led Houston Texans in the first half of Week 2, before Taylor went down with an injury.
Offensively, the Browns have more than enough firepower to run up a big team total, but with Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and either Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison on the other side, this game profiles as a high scoring, tight affair. Take the points.
Week 4 Quick Picks
- Washington (-1) vs Falcons: Washington has too much talent to continue to struggle on defense, and a matchup versus pocket sloth Matt Ryan should get them back on track.
- Bills (-17) vs Texans: As long as Davis Mills is the QB, Houston should be a full fade. Buffalo got back on track in Week 3 with an impressive 43-point showing, and their offensive outlook is just as strong in this spot.
- Lions (+3) vs Bears: The game plan Chicago schemed up for Fields’ first start should be a fireable offense. There’s no reason to believe the Bears staff will be any sharper this week.
- Eagles (+7.5) vs Chiefs: KC has covered just twice since the middle of last season. Excellent buy low spot on Philadelphia at home, after looking like trash on MNF in Dallas.
- Panthers (+4) vs Cowboys: Carolina has yet to trail at any point this season and is coming off an extended break, while this is a let down spot for Dallas on a short week fresh off a huge divisional win.
- Dolphins (-2) vs Colts: Stud lineman Quenton Nelson is doubtful for Indy, while Carson Wentz is playing on two injured ankles. Those injures, plus the lack of overall talent at the skill positions makes the Colts an easy fade.
- Giants (+7) vs Saints: Daniel Jones is 10-4 ATS on the road, compared to 4-11 ATS at home. Jameis Winston meanwhile, is 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite.
- Jets (+6.5) vs Titans: It’s ugly, but so too is the Tennessee injury situation. Both AJ Brown and Julio Jones will likely miss this game, while the Titans rank bottom-eight in points allowed.
- Rams (-3.5) vs Cardinals: Kliff Kingsbury is playing checkers while Sean McVay is playing chess. Kyler Murray is 0-4 lifetime versus LA, failing to eclipse 173 passing yards in three of those outings.
- Steelers (+6.5) vs Packers: Classic let down spot for Green Bay after its SNF win over San Fran. Everyone has written off the Steelers again, which is exactly when they typically show up. Mike Tomlin led teams are 18-6 ATS as road underdog versus winning teams during his Pittsburgh tenure.
- Buccaneers (-6.5) vs Patriots: Tom Brady will get his sweet revenge. New England is built to run the football which is the exact opposite way of how you attack this Tampa Bay defense. Brady meanwhile, will show no mercy on his former team.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
