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Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Oct 11, 2023 · 6:56 AM PDT

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Broncos QB Russell Wilson.
Jan 1, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) talks with Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) after a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
  • In the Week 6 NFL picks against the spread, only the New York Giants (0-5-0) are showing a perfectly imperfect ATS slate
  • Carolina (0-4-1) and Denver (0-4-1) are also winless ATS
  • All of the Week 6 NFL picks against the spread and early lines to target are outlined in the story below

What’s next for me in the Week 6 NFL picks against the spread in the latest effort to right a listing ship with a 3-12 ATS mark?

You know things are rough when you’ve had a worse week than the Chicago Bears. In fact, my prognosticating skills are proving to be so off the mark this season that I’m firmly convinced you should be betting yes, this is going to be the year that Lucy finally lets Charlie Brown kick the football.

Speaking of blockheads, the 0-4-1 ATS Denver Broncos are facing the Kansas City Chiefs as 10.5-point underdogs on TNF in the NFL lines for Week 6 ATS picks. The New York Jets have never beaten Philadelphia and they’ve only covered once against the Eagles

The 3-2 Jacksonville Jaguars are a better team in England (2-0) than they are in America (1-2) as they return to home soil to face the 3-2 Indianapolis Colts in a showdown for top spot in the AFC South.

Let’s check out all the top picks and best early bets in the NFL Week 6 ATS picks.

Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Jets PHI -7 PHI 1
Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs KC- 10.5 DEN 1
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars JAX -4 JAX 1

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Eagles, Broncos and Jaguars.

Odds as of October 11 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Get this BetMGM promo code to bet on all of your NFL Week 6 ATS picks here.

NFL ATS Pick 1: Broncos Bust Chiefs

So many variables on this game point toward betting on Kansas City. The Chiefs are 15-0 straight up in the last 15 games against the Broncos. Denver is 1-10 SU in the club’s past 11 divisional games and 2-12 SU over the past 14 road games.

However, Denver is 3-0 ATS in the last three games against KC. The Broncos are also 3-0 the last three times they’ve been double-digit underdogs to the Chiefs and 4-0 ATS when situated as a double-digit underdog against any team.

NFL ATS Picks: Denver Broncos +10.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Pick 2: Jaguars Dominant vs Colts

Gardner Minshew opened the 2020 season leading the Jaguars to a 27-20 upset of the Colts. In 12 games since as an NFL starting QB he’s 2-10 SU, but this season the Colts are 3-0 when he completes a pass. Minshew gets the start for Indianapolis on Sunday against his old club. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson (shoulder) is out for the Colts.

The Jaguars are back home following successive wins in England. Jacksonville is 14-2-1 ATS in the last 17 games against Indy.

NFL ATS Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars -4 (-112), 1 unit

NFL ATS Pick 3: Eagles Land On Jets

The New York Jets have more wins in the Super Bowl than they do against the Philadelphia Eagles. Twelve tries, 12 losses, 1-11 ATS. The only time the Jets covered was a 21-20 home-field loss as 8-point underdogs in 1996.

Philly is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 games against AFC opponents. The Eagles are 10-2 SU in their last 12 road games.

NFL ATS Picks: Philadelphia Eagles -7 (-108), 1 unit

  • ATS season record 3-12-0

Week 6 NFL Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks

  • Titans (+4.5) vs Ravens: Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in the club’s last five road games. But the Titans are 4-2 ATS in the past six games
  • 49ers (-5.5) vs Browns: San Francisco is 16-0 SU in the last 16 games as the betting choice. The Niners are also 13-3 ATS in the last 16 games. Cleveland is 1-8-1 the past 10 years coming off the bye week
  • Dolphins (-13.5) vs Panthers: Miami is 7-1 ATS in the past eight games and 6-1 ATS in the last seven against Carolina
  • Bears (+2.5) vs Vikings: Minnesota is 2-8-1 ATS over the past 11 games
  • Bengals (-3) vs Seahawks: The Bengals looked like themselves last week while dispatching the Cardinals
  • Texans (+1.5) vs Saints: Houston is 7-3 ATS through the last 10 games, while New Orleans is 1-4-1 ATS in the last six games
  • Falcons (-2.5) vs Commanders: Washington has lost three games in a row, but the Commanders are 4-1 ATS in the last five facing Atlanta
  • Raiders (-3) vs Patriots: Last week’s 34-0 loss to New Orleans was the worst home-field New England defeat of the Bill Belichick era
  • Rams (-7) vs Cardinals: LA’s NFC team is 3-1-1 ATS this season and 4-1 ATS in the last five home games
  • Lions (-3) vs Buccaneers: Detroit is 5-0 ATS in the last five games at Tampa Bay
  • Bills (-14) vs Giants: New York is on an 0-6 ATS skid and Giants QB Daniel Jones is 1-12 SU in prime time
  • Chargers (+2) vs Cowboys: Chargers are 15-3-1 ATS in the last 19 games facing an NFC East opponent
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