Week 7 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target
- In the Week 7 NFL picks against the spread, the Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins are showing NFL-best 5-1 records both SU and ATS
- Carolina (0-5-1) and Denver (0-5-1) are the only NFL teams yet to cover ATS this season
- All of the Week 7 NFL picks against the spread and early lines to target are outlined in the story below
Looking ahead to the Week 7 NFL picks against the spread, suddenly the sun is again shining in my betting realm. A winning week – albeit 2-1 ATS – was a first for the 2023 NFL campaign. Amazingly, perfection was foiled by the first-ever win posted by the New York Jets against the Philadelphia Eagles. They’d been 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS against Philly prior to last Sunday’s success.
Even so, that first touch of success does change a fellow’s outlook on life. Optimism abounds. Food tastes better – well, except bacon. Bacon is always delicious. There’s a sense of a corner being turned and that bright light ahead is the glow of sunnier days and not the impending doom of an oncoming train.
With that said, let’s get to the NFL lines for the Week 7 ATS picks.
Not only are the 5-1 Detroit Lions tied for the best straight up NFL record, they’re also owners of a share of the best ATS record, also 5-1. And oddsmakers are giving the Lions three points at the Baltimore Ravens.
The Buffalo Bills squeaked out a 14-9 stinker over the New York Giants, on the heels of a 25-20 loss to Jacksonville in England. Buffalo will fare much better in New England than in olde England.
While the Los Angeles Chargers don’t often beat their AFC West rivals the Kansas City Chiefs, they almost always cover. And the Chargers are 5.5-point underdogs in this week’s game.
Let’s check out all the top NFL picks and best early bets in the Week 7 ATS picks.
Week 7 NFL Picks Against the Spread
| Matchup | Spread | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs | KC -5.5 | LAC | 1 |
| Detroit Lions vs Baltimore Ravens | BAL -3 | DET | 1 |
| Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots | BUF -8.5 | BUF | 1 |
Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Chargers, Lions and Bills.
Odds as of October 18 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Get this BetMGM promo code to bet on all of your NFL Week 7 ATS picks here.
NFL ATS Picks 1: Chargers Keep Chiefs Close
Fear the Kansas City . . . defense? The Chiefs are the only NFL team to allow 21 or fewer points in every game this season. But KC is 1-5 ATS in the past six against the Chargers.
"Best defense in the National Football League." – Willie Gay Jr. pic.twitter.com/AaRXYka0XK
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 17, 2023
Kansas City’s offense has been underwhelming this season. The Chiefs came to SoFi Field to play their AFC West rivals from LA last year as the 5.5-point away chalk. The Chiefs won but failed to cover in a 30-27 victory.
NFL ATS Picks: Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 (-110), 1 unit
NFL ATS Picks 2: Lions Roar On Road
No team covers like the Lions under head coach Dan Campbell. They’re an NFL best 28-12 ATS under his leadership and 11-6 ATS as an away underdog.
The Detroit Lions are now a ridiculous 28-12 ATS (70%) in their last 40 games 🤑🦁💰
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) October 16, 2023
Baltimore lives by the run game. The Ravens are fourth in the NFL (144.8 YPG). Detroit is the NFL’s #1 run defense. The Lions have allowed 388 yards on the ground. That’s the lowest total posted by the team’s defense through six games since 1933.
NFL ATS Picks: Detroit Lions +3 (-110), 1 unit
NFL ATS Picks 3: Bills Put Beatdown On Bill
For the past three games, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has been sitting on 299 NFL career wins. Over that three game span New England is 0-3 SU and ATS and has been outscored 93-20. The Patriots are 1-9 ATS over their past 10 games.
This is certainly an opportunity for the Bills to fix what’s ailing them. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in the last six against New England and 6-1 SU in the past seven games. Buffalo is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three visits to Foxboro.
NFL ATS Picks: Buffalo Bills -8.5 (-110), 1 unit
- ATS season record 5-12-1
Week 7 NFL Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks
- Raiders (-3) vs Bears: The Raiders are dismal, but the Bears are dreadful
- Browns (-2.5) vs Colts: Cleveland’s defense has allowed the fewest yards (1,002) through six games since the 1971 Colts. They’re playing the 2023 Colts this week
- Commanders (-1.5) vs Giants: Washington QB Sam Howell has been picked off once over the past three games. The Giants (-96) own the NFL’s worst point differential
- Falcons (+2.5) vs Buccaneers: Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in the last five home games. Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in the past seven games vs NFC West teams
- Rams (-3) vs Steelers: Rams are 2-0 when RB Kyren Williams goes over 100 yards rushing. Pittsburgh is 29th at stopping the run (143.8 yards per game allowed)
- Seahawks (-7.5) vs Cardinals: Seattle is 4-1 ATS in the last five games against Arizona
- Saints (-1) vs Jaguars: Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence (knee) insists he’s playing in this TNF game. But on a short week, how close to 100% will he be?
- Packers (-1) vs Broncos: Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its past five games against Denver and 4-1 ATS in the club’s last five road games
- Dolphins (+2) vs Eagles: Miami is leading the NFL in both total passing offense and total rushing offense. The last team to do that for an entire season was the 1941 Bears
- 49ers (-6.5) vs Vikings: Minnesota is 9-1 ATS in the past 10 home games against San Francisco. Doesn’t matter. The 49ers will bounce back firmly from last week’s loss to the Browns
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
