Upcoming Match-ups
Tmrw
30
Apr
7:00 PM
PHI
NY
+4
-4
204
8:00 PM
ORL
CLE
+4.5
-4.5
201
9:30 PM
IND
MIL
-3.5
+3.5
217
Wednesday
1
May
10:00 PM
DAL
LAC
-2.5
+2.5
209.5

NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread – 49ers Upset Cards

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Nov 5, 2021 · 6:00 AM PDT

George Kittle runs after the catch
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle before an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
  • Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, November 7th
  • Our best bets last week were 2-1 (2021 season: 7-17, -12.1 units)
  • Read below for analysis on the Week 9 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks

Week 9 on the NFL calendar continues on Sunday (November 7th) with a jam packed 12-game slate. Injury news and positive COVID tests have flipped this slate on its head, with the potential for even more players to be ruled out as the week progresses.

Our betting card starts in San Francisco, where the Niners will be looking to upset a hurting Cardinals squad.

Week 9 ATS Picks

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers ARZ (-1) SF (+1) 1
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints NO (-7) ATL (+7) 1
Denver Broncos vs Dallas Cowboys DAL (-10) DEN (+10) 1

Odds as of Nov. 4th at FanDuel and DraftKings. See bottom for rest of Week 9 Picks.

When these two teams met in Week 5, the Cardinals prevailed with a 17-10 victory, but there’s plenty of reasons to believe fortunes will be reversed in Week 9.

49ers Upset Cardinals

The 49ers are currently a 1-point underdog, which is two points less than what the lookahead line was prior to Week 8’s action. San Fran went on the road in Chicago to hand the Bears an 11-point defeat, while the Cards suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of Green Bay.

Arizona was banged up heading into their clash with the Packers, and emerged with even more injuries. Kyler Murray missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday and is dealing with a serious ankle injury. There’s a chance he still plays, but even if he does he’ll surely be limited.

Murray’s biggest asset is his mobility, and if that is limited at all he’ll be nowhere near as effective. To make matters worse for the Cards, DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t practiced all week and barely played versus Green Bay due to a hamstring injury. To further complicate things, AJ Green has been placed on the COVID list leaving Arizona quite shorthanded on offense.

While the Cards are dropping like flies, San Fran is getting healthier. Tight end George Kittle is expected back on Sunday, which dramatically improves the Niners’ offensive ceiling.

Few players at his position are more difficult to defend in the passing game, while Kittle is also an elite blocker. San Fran’s run game, ranked third by DVOA, is already set-up to smash Arizona, who is allowing the second most yards per carry (4.9) of any team in the league.

Super Bowl 59 Odds for 2025: 49ers Open as Favorites, But Chiefs Are Close Second
Read More

Falcons Cover vs Saints

Next up on our card, is the Falcons as 7-point road underdogs versus the Saints. This game should likely be closer to a field goal, despite last week’s results, given the fact that it’s either going to be Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill at QB for New Orleans.

This is the ultimate buy low spot on Atlanta, and sell high on the Saints. The Falcons were embarrassed by Carolina last week, but the Panthers were able to collapse Atlanta’s o-line thanks to its top-12 pass rush. New Orleans on the other hand, ranks 30th in pass rush win rate per Pro Football Focus and just yielded 375 passing yards to Tom Brady last week.

Give Matt Ryan time to throw and he can burn you, with or without Calvin Ridley. Ryan’s PFF passing grade is a pristine 92.0 when kept clean, compared to 55.4 when under pressure. His completion rate is 73.3% when kept clean and he should have plenty of time to survey the field on Sunday versus a Saints defense that hurries QB’s on only 8.1% of drop backs.

Personally, I can’t fathom laying a full touchdown with either Siemian or Hill, especially since New Orleans literally has no elite skill position players outside of Alvin Kamara. Also working against the Saints is Sean Payton’s sub-par ATS record as a favorite. New Orleans is 0-2 this season as a favorite of more than 3 points, while Payton led teams are just 22-32-1 as a home favorite since 2014.

Broncos Surprise Cowboys

Last but not least, is the Broncos getting 10-points versus the Cowboys. Sure Dallas is a perfect 7-0 ATS, but 10 points seems like an awful lot for a team riddled with injuries to its best players.

First off, Dak Prescott missed last week’s game with a calf injury. He told the media on Thursday that he plans to play on Sunday, but he’ll likely be operating at less than 100%. His top-two wideouts CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are both dealing with injuries of their own, and Lamb’s status is currently up in the air.

The second year star suffered a sprained ankle in practice on Wednesday and will likely be a game-time decision. Prescott’s protection will also take a hit if he plays, as stud left tackle Tyron Smith has been ruled out with an ankle injury or his own.

That should pave the way for Denver to keep this game close. Their offensive outlook has improved with Jerry Jeudy’s return, who’s expected to resume a full-time role after playing only 38 snaps last week.

The Broncos covered last week, beating Washington by 10. That improved Teddy Bridgewater’s ATS record to 39-17-1 all-time. Teddy Two Gloves has been even more proficient covering on the road, posting a 23-5 ATS mark away from home over his career. He’s also 7-1 as a road underdog of 7 or more points.

Week 9 Quick Picks

  • Panthers (+3.5) vs Patriots: The lookahead line was Patriots -2 and you could talk me into PJ Walker being an upgrade over Sam Darnold given the latter’s recent play. Take the points.
  • Vikings (+6) vs Ravens: Minnesota should find success on offense versus a Baltimore team that ranks bottom-14 in run defense and coverage.
  • Browns (+2.5) vs Bengals: There’s an argument to be made that Cleveland is better off without OBJ. The fierce Browns pass rush should feast versus a Cincy o-line ranked 22nd in pass blocking.
  • Bills (-14.5) vs Jaguars: Buffalo is the number one team per DVOA, while Jacksonville was just blown out by a Seattle squad led by Geno Smith. Lay the points.
  • Texans (+5.5) vs Dolphins: With Tyrod Taylor under center, Houston won its opener and was on its way to upsetting Cleveland before he got hurt. Taylor returns Sunday to help the Texans upset Miami.
  • Raiders (-3.5) vs Giants: COVID is reportedly wreaking havoc on New York this week, forcing the Giants to prepare remotely as of Thursday. Las Vegas meanwhile, is fresh off a bye and is 2-0 both straight up and ATS in the post Jon Gruden era.
  • Chargers (-2) vs Eagles: Good buy low spot on LAC. The Chargers are undervalued thanks to back-to-back losses, while Philly’s stock has never been higher after destroying the winless Lions.
  • Packers (+7.5) vs Chiefs: The Jordan Love era is here, albeit temporarily. Yes, he’s a major downgrade over Aaron Rodgers, but KC has been abysmal ATS over the past two seasons. The Chiefs are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 regular season outings.
  • Rams (-7.5) vs Titans: The league’s number one rated offense will have all day to operate versus Tennessee’s 29th ranked pass rush. On the other side of the ball, good luck slowing down Aaron Donald and Von Miller with no Derrick Henry in the backfield.
Author Image