Blues Now -140 Favorites to Win Central as Avalanche Plummet to +240 and Jets Fall to +2200
- The St Louis Blues are currently heavy favorites to win the Central Division
- St Louis is 8-2 over its last ten, with an eight-point lead over Colorado
- Is there any value to be had in the Central Division odds?
The defending Stanley Cup champion St Louis Blues have withstood the storm, and are eyeing a strong stretch run.
After losing superstar Vladimir Tarasenko at the end of October, things looked bleak for the Blues. They were locked in a dog fight with the Avalanche and Predators a month in.
Instead of faltering, the Blues have racked up an NHL-best 45 points since. With their lead in the Central continuing to grow, they’re looking more and more like a lock.
2019/20 Central Division Odds
| Team | Record | Points | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Louis Blues | 26-8-6 | 58 | -150 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 23-12-4 | 50 | +275 |
| Dallas Stars | 22-14-4 | 48 | +600 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 21-15-3 | 45 | +2500 |
| Minnesota Wild | 19-16-5 | 43 | +2500 |
| Nashville Predators | 18-14-6 | 42 | +1200 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 17-17-6 | 40 | +10000 |
Odds taken December 31.
When the odds were last updated, things were a lot tighter. Oddsmakers thought the Avalanche were going to go on a run.
On December 16, Colorado was the favorite at +140, on average, in the Central Division odds. St. Louis was listed at +280 despite a slim one-point lead.
The St. Louis Blues are…
26-8-6 on the Season
10-1-1 vs. the Central
19-2-3 vs. the West
17-4-4 vs. 2019 Playoff TeamsI’ll take it. #STLBlues
— Blues Views (@STLBluesViews) December 29, 2019
Since then, the Avalanche have earned just five points, while the Blues have 12. Their average odds have shot all the way to -140.
Can they be caught?
Key Games Remaining on St Louis Blues’ Schedule
When looking at the last three months of the season, the teams chasing St Louis need to make the most of their opportunities.
If not, their chances will shrink quickly.
Remaining Games vs Central Division
| Opponent | Games Remaining vs STL |
|---|---|
| Chicago Blackhawks | 2 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 3 |
| Dallas Stars | 3 |
| Minnesota Wild | 2 |
| Nashville Predators | 2 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 2 |
Unfortunately for Chicago, Nashville and Minnesota, they’re relegated to spoiler status when it comes to the division. They can only help out Winnipeg, Colorado and Dallas.
As for the Jets, they have to win their two remaining games against the Blues and hope for a lot of help.
St Louis won it's 7th straight game tonight in Winnipeg. They are now 25-9-6 this season and 1st in the Central…at this point last season, Blues were 16-19-4, and last in the Central…that's an improvement of 20 points over 39 games…It continues to be an amazing turnaround.
— John Shannon (@JShannonhl) December 28, 2019
While the Stars and Avs both have three games left against the Blues, they’re 0-2 against them this year. Failing to get a point in just one of the remaining games would mean either would have to enjoy a massive hot streak, coinciding with a St Louis collapse.
Do Analytics See a Slow Down for St Louis Blues?
While they sit at the top of the division, there’s one area the St. Louis Blues haven’t dominated: possession.
In terms of their ability to dictate play and generate scoring chances, a couple of teams in the Central have the Blues’ number.
Central Division Analytics Comparison
| Team | Corsi % | Fenwick % | Scoring Chances For | Scoring Chances Against | High Danger Chances For | High Danger Chances Against | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Louis Blues | 49.19% | 48.73% | 1049 | 1071 | 374 | 451 | 1.024 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 49.51% | 49.29% | 1103 | 1077 | 410 | 399 | 1.025 |
| Dallas Stars | 49.19% | 48.96% | 1158 | 1069 | 485 | 415 | 1.008 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 49.67% | 48.81% | 1036 | 1080 | 363 | 499 | 1.005 |
Analytics aren’t the be-all, end-all. If they were, then the Predators would be tops in the Central. After all, they have the highest Corsi and Fenwick, and allowed the fewest scoring chances.
But it does give teams hope, specifically the Avalanche.
Jared Bednar says the team will start double shifting Nathan MacKinnon on both power-play units. #Avs
— Ryan S. Clark (@ryan_s_clark) December 30, 2019
The Avs’ offense currently has 13 more goals than the Blues, but they’ve allowed eight more. They’re also better than St Louis in all the categories listed above, with the smallest difference coming in PDO.
The goalie tandem of Jordan Binnington and Jake Allen has done a great job keeping the Blues atop the division. But if St. Louis remains in the top ten in High Danger Chances Against, is the team’s .924 save percentage and 2.33 goals-against average sustainable?
Avalanche Offer Value Against Division-Leading St Louis Blues
Yes the Blues have been red-hot lately, but the Avs have been able to trim the gap in the division before. They just couldn’t finish the job.
Unless something changes in St. Louis, Colorado should catch up to them again, and this is the perfect time to pounce.
Points Leaders as of 12/29/2019 :
Connor McDavid (Oilers) – 63
Leon Draisaitl (Oilers) – 61
Brad Marchand (Bruins) – 57
David Pastrnak (Bruins) – 56
Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche) – 56— ProHockeyLeaders (@ProHockeyLeader) December 29, 2019
The Stars are enticing at +600, but they are a little too far back. With the offense Colorado has, though, +275 is a great price over a division leader that offers next to no value.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
