Canadiens vs Penguins Odds – August 1

• The Pittsburgh Penguins are the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference while the Canadiens are No. 12
• The Canadiens enter the qualifying series with the fewest points (71) of any team in the bubble
• See the odds for Game 1 and read our preview and best bet below

The Montreal Canadiens and Pittsburgh Penguins get their qualifying series started on Saturday. The two teams had the widest gap in points in terms of any two sides meeting in the qualifying series and the Pens were the biggest favorite on the board in terms of the series price. Are they the right play for Game 1 or is there value somewhere else?

Canadiens vs Penguins Odds

Odds taken July 28

Pens Expected to Roll

If we’re merely taking a cue from the odds, the Penguins are expected to win this series quickly and painlessly. They are the biggest favorite on the board in terms of series prices (-195) and they finished 15 points up on the Canadiens in the standings.

There’s even a prop on the board as to which team will get the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NHL Draft and the Canadiens are favored at +1000 (teams who lose in the qualifying series round will have a shot at the No. 1 pick).

Of course, this doesn’t mean that the Pens will win for sure or that they’re even a good bet for Game 1, but this just paints the picture that everyone is expecting a mismatch here.

Price Has Been Struggling

Over the last decade, when the Canadiens have gone anywhere, it’s usually because goaltender Carey Price has led the way. The challenge in this series and in Game 1 is that Price was in the midst of one of his worst seasons. He has a 2.79 GAA this season and he’s only been at that number (or worse) once in the last 11 years.

Last we saw Price, he had given up four goals or more in four of his final five starts and seven of his last 10. That’s not going to cut it against a high-scoring Penguins team that has plenty of firepower.

Penguins Get Guentzel Back

Had this series played out in the spring, the Pens would have likely been without one of their key cogs: Jake Guentzel. The 25-year-old star had 43 points in 39 games this season but was declared out four-to-six months after having shoulder surgery at the end of December 2019. He’s back and he’s part of a loaded Pens frontline.

Now the Habs are looking at a trio of lethal lines. Guentzel will pair with Sidney Crosby and Conor Sheary, the second line will feature Jason Zucker, Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust, and the third line will include Patrick Marleau, Jared McCann and Patric Hornqvist. They averaged 3.20 goals per game (10th in NHL) and this will be a problem for Montreal.

What’s the Best Bet?

I don’t love laying -152 here giving all of the dicey circumstances (neutral site, long layoff) but I just get the sense the Habs don’t want to be here. They’re the team with the fewest points in the bubble and they really have no long-term chances to make a run here.

On top of that, Price doesn’t have a good track record against the Pens. He had an .881 save percentage against them in 2017, .872 in 2018 and .891 in 2019. This year, he had been effective against them, posting a .929 save percentage, but Crosby didn’t play in either of those games and Guentzel missed one too.

I don’t love the idea of laying -152 but the Pens look like the right side in this game. The Canadiens vs Penguins betting trends seem to support that too.