Carlson (+325) & Hamilton (+650) Lead Norris Trophy Odds; Burns & Karlsson Still Top-Five Despite Being -24 Combined

• John Carlson leads NHL defensemen with 23 points in 16 games
• Carlson has never finished higher than fourth in Norris Trophy voting
• Who’s the best value bet to win the Norris as of early November?

Two years ago, Washington defenseman John Carlson won a Stanley Cup, the ultimate team award. He has accrued other accolades, such as being an NHL All-Star, a World Junior gold medalist, and even a two time AHL champion.

But the ultimate individual award (for defensemen, at least), the Norris Trophy, has evaded him. That could change this season, however, if he keeps up the torrid scoring pace that has him as the favorite in the 2020 Norris Trophy odds one month into the season.

Odds taken Nov. 4.

What has made Carlson the favorite? Is there value in anyone else near the top?

Piling Up The Points

There are many ways to quantify the value of a player, but nothing is easier — or more influential — than examining a player’s point total. Carlson has 23 points (including seven goals) through 16 games, which puts him on a blistering 117-point pace.

JOHN CARLSON OWNS OCTOBER #ALLCAPS #Johnny4Norris pic.twitter.com/QbPZpao2iQ

— x – Washington Capitals (@Capitals) October 29, 2019

That would tie for eighth all-time in the single-season defensemen points record (all the top-10 entries belong to Paul Coffey and Bobby Orr).

#TBT: On the 45th anniversary of Bobby Orr becoming the league's highest scoring defenceman, we take a deeper look into just how great No. 4 really was. https://t.co/S1FgmFB9Sw pic.twitter.com/4nOn15xsWx

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) December 21, 2017

To understand how unheard-of that is in today’s NHL, consider this: only one defenseman in the past 25 years has had as many as 85 points (Brian Leetch, 1995-96). So even crossing the 100-point mark, or coming close, would be an incredible accomplishment.

Dougie Hamilton, with 16 points in 14 games, is on pace for 93 points.

What Do The Underlying Stats Say?

Erik Karlsson (-13 rating) and Brent Burns (-11 rating) remain in the top five despite dreadful +/- ratings. Part of that is because the rise of advanced stats has shown there are better ways to measure defensive value.

Another tough night for #ErikKarlsson back in Ottawa.
A combined -6 with 0 points in two games.

On the other hand, great game by Nick Paul with 2 goals and 3 points in the 5-2 win. pic.twitter.com/YgzbmbAVLS

— TSN 1200 (@TSN1200) October 28, 2019

Karlsson’s relative Corsi For percentage is 3.3, meaning the Sharks have 3.3 percent more shot attempts with him on the ice than with him off the ice. Burns, meanwhile, has a -3.5 relative CF%, so his underlying stats aren’t favorable.

Carlson has a -0.8 relative CF%, but is producing in spite of it. Hamilton’s relative CF% is 1.3.

Norris Trophies Are For Winners

The verbatim description for the Norris Trophy is that it’s an award given “to the defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.”

So, by that definition, playing on a winning team isn’t compulsory. But looking back at recent winners of the award, they all played on teams that made the postseason.

It’s a small thing, but it’s worth noting that the San Jose Sharks, for whom Karlsson and Burns play, are last in the Western Conference right now. The season has a long way to go, but if that trend persists, it’s difficult to see either blue-liner walking away with the award.

Decision Time

If Carlson can maintain anything close to his current scoring pace, he’s likely a shoo-in for this award. Of course, that’s much easier said than done. But the way he’s going now, he’s certainly a deserving favorite.

Morgan Rielly is an interesting pick at +800. He factors heavily into the Maple Leafs’ power play and has always been a shot-heavy defenseman, so he’s someone to keep an eye on.