New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning Eastern Conference Finals Series Odds & Predictions

• The New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning will meet in the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals
• Tampa Bay is the betting favorite at -195 to win the series
• See the odds and predictions for both teams and the series, which begins on Monday, September 7

The Tampa Bay Lightning are the -195 favorites going into the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Islanders, which kicks off on Monday, September 7 at 8pm ET.

This will be the Islanders’ first Eastern Conference Finals appearance since 1993, and Tampa’s fifth trip since 2011—the most of any Eastern Conference team since 2011.

Islanders vs Lightning Series Odds

*Odds taken September 6

These teams will be meeting in the postseason for the third time since 2004. The Islanders have never defeated Tampa Bay in the postseason, having previously lost to the Lightning both times in five games (2004, 2016).

After defeating the Florida Panthers in the qualifying round, New York upset the Washington Capitals in five games, before besting the Philadelphia Flyers in seven contests (being up 3-1 at one point). The Lightning finished second in the Eastern Conference’s round robin. Despite a close-knit series against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Tampa bested them in five games, after which they defeated the Boston Bruins in as many contests.

Islanders Have Edge in Scoring, Discipline

Despite their defensive trap-based system, the Islanders have been the more offensively-productive team. They’re second in total goals scored among the four remaining teams, and have outscored Tampa Bay in the postseason 50-39. The Islanders also lead the final four teams in goals for (3.33) and against (2.07) per game.

Mayfield's FIRST CAREER PLAYOFF GOAL 🚨 pic.twitter.com/bLxxVrbz5l

— New York Islanders (@NYIslanders) September 5, 2020

New York has taken the fewest penalties (53), have both the least penalty minutes (109), and fewest penalty minutes per game (7:16). If they keep this rate up, New York’s ability to stay out of the penalty box will come in handy against an offensively-stacked Tampa Bay team that largely thrives on the power play to score goals.

Tampa Bay Thriving Without Steven Stamkos

While the Lightning are optimistic about winger Nikita Kucherov’s availability for game one, Tampa Bay has played without team captain Steven Stamkos the entire postseason, and haven’t skipped a beat. Stamkos hasn’t played since February 25 due to injury. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, their extraordinary offensive depth has made their captain’s lengthy absence seamless.

https://twitter.com/iancmclaren/status/1300633385472327680

Brayden Point is sixth and Kucherov is 10th in playoff scoring, while the Lightning also currently have the best win percentage in the playoffs (.769). Out of the four teams in the conference finals, only Tampa’s second round series didn’t go to seven games, making short work of the Boston Bruins.

Islanders vs Lightning Head-to-Head Stats

Both Teams Successful When Scoring First

One statistical commonality between the Lightning and Islanders are both team’s successful track record at winning games when scoring first this postseason.

Tampa has scored first in nine playoff games, going on to win eight, while the Islanders have opened the scoring in eight contests, winning six. New York has also been a solid play even when giving up the opening goal, winning four of seven in the playoffs.

Tampa Bay’s has won two of four games these playoffs when their opponents scored. Whichever team gets the first goal could be a pivotal indicator of who winds up winning that game.

Islanders vs Lightning Prediction

On paper, the Lightning are the undisputed favorites, and expected to win easily. However, injuries and their documented struggles against teams that utilize tight defensive systems should make one wary about taking a Tampa Bay win for granted. The Islanders have defeated teams with high-scoring offenses like the Florida Panthers, Washington Capitals, and Philadelphia Flyers.

Aside from Mathew Barzal, the Islanders don’t have any genuine superstars on their team, and roll four lines during games, banking on their ability to wear out opponents. Having said that, it’s hard to overlook Tampa Bay’s roster, which is deep with highly-skilled players in every position. Although one should expect the games in this series to be close, the Lightning have more firepower than the Islanders can probably handle.

The Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning (-195)