Longshot Blackhawks See Western Conference Title Odds Drop from +2520 to +3500

• The Chicago Blackhawks have seen their Western Conference title odds fade from +2520 to +3500
• The Blackhawks were one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL this season
• Is there any value in placing a longshot wager on Chicago winning the West?

Are the Chicago Blackhawks capable of winning one more Stanley Cup with this core group of players? Bettors don’t like their chances. The Blackhawks have seen their NHL Western Conference odds fade from +2520 to +3500, on average, since July 3rd.

Chicago’s qualifying round opponent, the Edmonton Oilers, saw their odds improve from +1120 to +1060 in that same span.

Is there value betting on the longshot Blackhawks to defeat the Oilers and then win three more best-of-seven series?

2020 Western Conference Odds

Odds as of July 15th. 

Blackhawks’ Defensive Woes

There’s a well-known saying in sports that defense wins championships. If the Blackhawks were to go on a run this summer, they’d be defying that adage. Chicago was a mess defensively in 2019-20, allowing the most shots against (35.1 per game) out of any team in the NHL.

If Corey Crawford can't go for Chicago it will be up to one of Subban / Delia / Lankinen to deal with this…. 😳#blackhawks pic.twitter.com/vwkQWtL1cF

— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) July 14, 2020

Chicago’s top-six defensemenp pales in comparison to the bluelines of some of the Western Conference powerhouses. Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith were dynamite when they led the Blackhawks to three Stanley Cups between 2010 and 2015. Both players are now in the tail end of their NHL careers and are no longer playing at elite levels.

While it’s certainly good to have experience on the back-end, you also need talent. No defenseman on the team hit the 30-point mark this season.

Even if Chicago manages to pull off an upset of the Oilers, this defense is going to be a huge roadblock on the path to the 2020 Stanley Cup Final.

Corey Crawford “Unfit to Play”

The biggest question mark for the Blackhawks heading into the qualifying round is in the crease. Starting netminder Corey Crawford has been ruled ruled “unfit to play” by the team and is yet to participate in training camp. This is likely the biggest precipitator of the significant odds movement.

Malcolm Subban readying for ‘opportunity of a lifetime’ with Corey Crawford absent https://t.co/IfEiDTuOhK

— Sun-Times Sports (@suntimes_sports) July 16, 2020

If the Blackhawks were to have any chance of going on a long playoff run, they would need a fully healthy Crawford. He’s already won two Stanley Cups and has plenty of experience in these high-pressure situations. The fact Crawford hasn’t even gotten on the ice yet after such a long layoff is not an ideal scenario.

If Crawford can’t play, Chicago will be turning to Malcolm Subban or Collin Delia. Subban posted a lackluster .890 save percentage as a backup this season (mostly with Vegas),  while Delia owns a .906 save percentage in only 18 career NHL starts. Neither goalie has any NHL playoff experience.

Oilers Provide Stiff Early Test

The Blackhawks were 23rd in the NHL in points percentage and barely made it into the 24-team return-to-play format, meaning they are getting a quality opponent in the qualifying round. Not only do the Oilers have the league’s top-two scorers in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but they also have the advantage of being a hub city.

The Oilers talented group of forwards could feast on this weak Blackhawks’ defense. Chicago has its own talented group of forwards led by veterans Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, but they’ll be in tough to score against playoff warrior Mike Smith, who owns a .938 career postseason save percentage.

Out of all the “underdogs” in the qualifying round, Chicago has been given some of the worst odds to pull out an upset.Only the Montreal Canadiens are bigger underdogs to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the East.

When you consider just how good their first opponent is, it isn’t smart betting on Chicago to win four playoff rounds this summer.

Verdict

The Stanley Cup playoffs are fairly wide open in the Western Conference, but the Blackhawks are one team I’d suggest staying away from. Their defensive issues are already a major concern, and now if Crawford can’t play, it’s hard to seem them getting very far.

The Oilers have great high-end potential and could do some major damage in their own barn. If you’re looking for a true longshot, though, why not go with a team that has an elite goaltender capable of stealing playoff rounds? Both the Jets and Canucks have a goaltender in the Vezina conversation and have dangerous offenses which give them value at their current odds.