NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 (Apr 27)

• The Maple Leafs are -155 moneyline favorites to eliminate Tampa in Game 5 on Thursday, April 27th
• Each of the last two games of this series went to overtime with the Leafs winning both
• Check out the Lightning vs Maple Leafs odds for Game 5, plus our best bet and prediction

Something feels different this time around. That’s paraphrasing Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe after his team won back-to-back games in Tampa to take a 3-1 stranglehold in their series with the three-time defending Eastern Conference champion Lightning.

Once again, Toronto seeks to advance to the second round in the NHL Playoff Bracket for the first time in almost 20 years when they host the Lightning on Thursday, April 27th with the faceoff scheduled for 7:00 pm ET from Scotiabank Arena.

Find the Lightning vs Maple Leafs odds below as we preview this matchup and end off by giving you our best bet and picks for this clash. Broadcast coverage will be provided by TBS in the States with CBC and Sportsnet airing the game in Canada.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Odds

Despite these teams combining to score at least seven goals in every single game this series, sportsbooks have not moved the over/under total up from 6.5 goals for this contest.

Like their other games at home, the Leafs are comfortable favorites in this one at -155, while Tampa is paying +135 on the moneyline to extend the series.

DRAFTKINGS
SPORTSBOOK

Bet $5 & Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly + a No Sweat NBA SGP Every Day!

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $200

+ A NO SWEAT NBA SGP

GET PROMO

Odds as of April 26th at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Vasilevskiy Continues To Struggle vs Maple Leafs

You can’t really blame Tampa goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy for allowing the Leafs to come back in Game 5. Of the five markers the Buds netted, three were off deflections, one was a screened point shot and the other was a wrister from point-blank range from one of the most lethal snipers in the NHL, Auston Matthews.

However, the sample size of the Leafs’ scoring exploits against the former Conn Smythe and Vezina Trophy winner is becoming too big to ignore. In 11 playoff contests against Toronto, the Leafs have found holes in the all-world netminder time and time again. It’s no wonder they’re favorites once again in the NHL odds.

Andrei Vasilevskiy Career Playoff Stats

While there are other areas of Tampa’s game that need improvement, the most crucial element to a victory in Game 5 will be keeping the puck out of the net. Although they’ve been more physical, the Lightning are losing the war of attrition in this series bringing their depth into question.

With blueliners Zach Bogosian and Haydn Fleury pressed into the lineup at certain points, keeping the Leafs off the board has been a struggle.

Apr 24, 2023: NHL Least Icetime

Forwards
01 Mark Scheifele 1:40 #gojetsgo [inj]02 Jared McCann 3:38 #seakraken [inj]03 Curtis Lazar 4:58 #njdevils

Defence
01 Zach Bogosian 8:07 #gobolts
02 Logan Stanley 8:58 #gojetsgo
03 Carson Soucy 11:50 #seakraken

— LinesLinesLines (@CcCMiddleton) April 25, 2023

The bruising Bogosian took an unnecessary penalty in the 3rd period of Game 4 that allowed the Leafs to cut the lead to one. He saw just over eight minutes of ice time, while every Leafs defenseman played at least 17 minutes. At a certain point, Tampa’s top guys are going to wear down. Case in point, anchor Victor Hedman averaged over 30 minutes a game since returning from injury.

Maple Leafs Top Players Leading the Way

A lot is always made about the amount of money the Leafs pay to their top players, however, so far in this series, they’ve proved worth it. Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and William Nylander all rank in the top 10 in playoff scoring.

Perhaps no Leafs player has impressed more than Morgan Rielly. Only two rearguards have more points in the playoffs so far, but the longest-serving Maple Leaf has got it done on both ends of the ice, with a plus-6 rating while averaging almost 24 minutes of ice time a night.

Morgan Rielly’s playoffs so far :
-game 2 : 4 primary assists
-game 3 : OT winner
-game 4 : game-tying goal pic.twitter.com/9vHyMf6Ztn

— morgan rielly gifs (@riellygifs) April 25, 2023

With the depth added by general manager Kyle Dubas at the deadline, it appears like the Leafs have finally found the recipe to escape the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, but the proof is in the pudding.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Prediction

Tampa came out like gangbusters in Game 4, owning the first period and jumping out to a 2-0 lead before the intermission. They held a 4-1 lead through two and were visibly stunned after a Toronto comeback that ended in a 5-4 overtime defeat, the second consecutive game they lost in extra time.

Don’t expect them to bow out lightly. They have won two of the last three Stanley Cups for a reason. Nevertheless, it appears the torch is ready to be passed as it’s the Leafs who are much stronger favorites in the Stanley Cup odds this season.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Same-Game Parlay Picks

In the Matthews era, the Leafs are 0-for-9 in games where a win would end the series. Two of those losses came last year to Tampa. While we’re iffy on Tampa winning Game 5 outright, they should keep it within a goal for the third straight time in the Lightning vs Maple Leafs odds.

At some point, you’d think these teams would play a low-scoring game that is the trademark of playoff hockey, but until that happens, our best bet is to keep rolling with the over.

Pick: Over 6.5 Goals (-115)