Stars vs Lightning Game 1 Odds & Picks – Sep. 19

• The Tampa Bay Lightning will play the Dallas Stars in the Stanley Cup Final
• The Bolts have opened as -162 favorites for Game 1
• Read below for our game preview and betting prediction

It will be the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars in the 2020 Stanley Cup Final. Game 1 is set for Saturday, Sept. 19 at 7:30 PM EST in the Edmonton bubble.

After defeating the New York Islanders in six games in the Eastern Conference Final, the Bolts have opened as -162 favorites in the Stars vs. Lightning odds. The Stars, who knocked off the Vegas Golden Knights in five games in the Western Conference Final, have opened as +140 underdogs for Game 1.

How should you make your bet for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final? Read on for our prediction here.

Stars vs Lightning Game 1 Odds

Odds taken Sep. 18 at DraftKings

Banged Up Bolts Defeat Isles

The Lightning have advanced to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2015 after defeating the Islanders in the Eastern Conference Final. Superstar forward Nikita Kucherov leads the playoffs in scoring with 26 points in 19 games, while Victor Hedman has been a monster on the blueline with nine goals, 15 points and a plus-19 rating. Vezina nominee Andrei Vasilevskiy has been sensational in goal with a .931 save percentage.

Already without captain Steven Stamkos, injuries are becoming a concern for the Bolts. Brayden Point missed two games against the Isles due to injury and was playing through discomfort in Game 6, while Anthony Cirelli briefly left the game following an awkward collision with Anders Lee. Top-line forward Ondrej Palat also battled through pain in Game 6 after blocking a 93 MPH shot from Ryan Pulock.

The Bolts have less than 48 hours to prepare for Dallas. They’re going to be worn down after taking 137 hits from the Islanders and playing three overtime periods in the final two games of the series. Can their talent still overcome the wear-and-tear?

Well-Rested Stars Love Underdog Role

The Stars have been underestimated all postseason. Dallas was listed as heavy underdogs in every game against Vegas and went on to knock off the powerhouse Knights in five games. Goaltender Anton Khudobin has been exceptional for the Stars, posting a .920 save percentage this postseason, while captain Jamie Benn is playing some of the best hockey of his career with eight goals and 18 points in 21 games.

The Stars likely aren’t going to beat Tampa Bay by outscoring the Bolts’ high-powered offense. They’re going to win with defense. Dallas allowed the fewest amount of goals-per-game (2.52) out of any team in the Western Conference during the regular season and later exemplified that effectiveness by limiting a very good Golden Knights’ offense to just eight total goals.

It doesn’t get more underdog for Dallas than being the first team in 52 years to enter the Stanley Cup Final with a negative goal differential (-2). The one big advantage they have over Tampa for Game 1 is rest. They’ve been off since Monday after having their way with the Golden Knights in Round 3.

Season Series 

The Stars and Lightning played twice during the regular season, with Dallas winning in overtime both times. How Dallas won those games is likely how they’re going to need to win games in this series. In a 4-3 OT victory back in December, Khudobin stood on his head with a 45-save performance. In the other meeting, a 3-2 Dallas overtime victory in January, captain Benn delivered in the clutch with two goals.

What’s important to note about Dallas in that most recent meeting is they were playing their first game in nine days following the All-Star break. There’s no need to worry about rust for this team. The Stars took Game 1 against both Colorado and Vegas, and Khudobin will benefit from the downtime after facing 30-plus shots in four of the five conference final games.

The Best Bet for Game 1

I think this Bolts team is too talented not to win this series, but there’s plenty of value jumping on a well-rested Stars team in the opening game. This Tampa Bay squad is banged up and the Stars have plenty of confidence after taking down one of the league’s top teams in only five games.

See you Saturday, @TBLightning 👋 pic.twitter.com/66Kx36MYOZ

— z – Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) September 18, 2020

You should also consider taking the ‘under’ — at least until Khudobin comes back down to earth. It’s cashed in five straight games for Dallas and has hit in three straight for Tampa.

Pick: Dallas Stars ML (+140), Under 5 (+112)