Erik Jones a Top-10 Contender For NASCAR Championship After Three Straight Top Three Finishes; Is There Any Value?

• Erik Jones has placed in the top 3 in three straight races
• Jones had just three top 10s in his first ten starts of the season
• Jones is still a long shot to win the NASCAR Cup Championship as he’s just 39 points inside the playoff cut

Although most people expect someone like Kyle Busch or Martin Truex Jr. to win the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Championship, a new contender has emerged: Erik Jones.

He’s been red-hot of late. Is he a value play given where his NASCAR Cup Championship odds currently stand, or will his magic run quickly end? Most online sportsbooks currently list Jones at +2500.

Odds to Win 2019 NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Championship

*Odds taken 08/01/19.

Jones Is On Fire

Jones is one of the hottest drivers on the circuit right now as he’s finished in the top 3 in each of the last three races. That includes a second-place result at Pocono and back-to-back third-place finishes at New Hampshire and Kentucky.

Jones actually has placed in the top 8 in five of his last six starts, so this hot spell has lasted beyond just a couple of weeks.

He really turned the corner at Dover. He had just three top 10’s in his first ten starts this season. He’s placed in the top 10 in eight of 12 starts since.

Jones’ recent heater – the last five races – has really dug him out of a playoff hole. He was seven points out of a playoff spot following the Michigan race on June 9th. However, with his turnaround, he’s now 39 points inside of the cut-off line.

Good Finishes But Still Some Concerns

One of the most concerning aspects of betting on Jones to win it all is the amount of laps he’s led. It’s hard to believe that he’s placed in the Top 3 in three straight races yet he’s only led a combined 15 laps. Even looking further back to the spell where he had Top 10’s in eight of 12 races, he rarely led laps. He’s led 16 laps in total in his last 12 starts.

How good is his car really if he can’t get in front of the pack? It’s not really an apples-to-apples comparison but Kyle Busch led for 56 laps last week but finished ninth. He led for 118 laps the week before but finished eighth. Sure, they have different cars and are different drivers, but this is who Jones is up against.

As a result, Jones is collecting points but not a ton. He’s picked up 43 points in each of his last three starts for the Top 3 results. However, Busch has collected 38, 45 and 53 in that span with worse finishes (second, eighth and ninth).

What’s The Best Bet?

Jones is having a good year – the type of year he needs if he wants Joe Gibbs Racing to sign him to an extension after the season – but he’s not a contender for the championship.

The odds paint the story as he’s at +2500, which puts him 11th in line. Bet on him for top-10 props while he’s hot, but don’t bet him to win it all.