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Belgium vs Portugal Odds & Prediction – Euro 2020 Round of 16

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer News

Updated Jun 26, 2021 · 6:37 PM PDT

Belgium manager Roberto Martinez greets Romelu Lukaku
Belgium's manager Roberto Martinez, left, greets his player Belgium's Romelu Lukaku after he was substituted by Belgium's Christian Benteke during the Euro 2020 soccer championship group B match between Finland and Belgium at Saint Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg, Russia, Monday, June 21, 2021. (Anatoly Maltsev/Pool Photo via AP)
  • In one of the ties of the Round of 16, Belgium and Portugal matchup in Seville
  • Belgium won their group in impressive fashion, while the defending champions struggled through
  • Read below for the latest odds, betting preview and pick

Taking place on Sunday June, 27th, Belgium and Portugal clash in Seville in the Round of 16 of Euro 2020.

These were two of the pre-tournament favorites, and both will be disappointed to face such a tough draw in the first round of knockout football. Portugal are looking to defend their European Championships crown, while the Belgians are aiming to prove they can compete in tournament football after disappointments at the last two major tournaments.

The Red Devils are narrowly favored at DraftKings with a price of +150 to win in 90 minutes.

Belgium vs Portugal Odds

Matchup Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total
Belgium vs Portugal BEL -0.25 (+112) | POR +0.25 (-134) BEL +150 | POR +210 | DRAW +210 Ov 2.5 (+120) | Un 2.5 (-143)

Odds as of Jun 25

Fernando Santos Makes Big Call

Bruno Fernandes was benched for Portugal’s final group match. It was a bold call from Fernando Santos after Fernandes’ brilliant season at club level, but it worked out. There’s logic in leaving Fernandes out once again here given the attacking firepower the Belgians possess.

Fernandes’ absence enabled Portugal to pack the midfield. Similar is required against the Belgians, even if Axel Witsel isn’t fit enough to start. Limiting the space for Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans to operate is key to Portugal’s chances, and playing Fernandes along with Diogo Jota, Bernardo Silva and Cristiano Ronaldo might leave Santos’ team vulnerable.

Roberto Martinez’s selection issues are more straight forward. If Witsel is available, De Bruyne will start with Eden Hazard just behind Romelu Lukaku. If Witsel cannot play 90, Dries Mertens will likely play in the front three with De Bruyne dropping into midfield. Martinez’s other decisions in the back three and at left wing-back are not as significant as Santos’ Fernandes dilemma.

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Portugal’s Defensive Struggles

Part of the reason Santos needed to reinforce the midfield was how shaky the defense has looked at times. The Ruben Dias and Pepe partnership has not been as secure as it appeared on paper. In fact, the Portuguese back line was torn apart by Germany in the group stage, and a similar defensive performance against Belgium could end in a very one-sided result on Sunday.

Belgium are every bit as open at the back, despite conceding just one goal in the group stage. Their back three is often left exposed on the break, with Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen not possessing the necessary pace to cover the outside center-back roles against wide players. Jota, in particular, is going to be an important piece of Portugal’s attack. His runs in behind could cause problems for Belgium’s veteran defenders.

Both have been potent in attack. Lukaku and Ronaldo are two of the best goal scorers on the planet, flanked by some exceptional creative talent. While knockout matches can often become tense, and Portugal will be happy to absorb pressure and play on the break, these defenses do not look capable of playing a tight match.

The sheer pedigree of attacking players on show suggests this should be a high-scoring encounter.

Belgium vs Portugal Group Stage Statistics

Belgium
VS
Portugal
7 Goals scored 7
1 Goals conceded 6
57.8% Average possession 52.3%
1 yellows, 0 reds Cards 1 yellows, 0 reds
10.7 Shots per match 9.3
63% Shots inside the area 57%

Goals Are Inevitable

High-scoring matches haven’t been the blueprint for Portugal, yet they might not have much of a choice here. Belgium are fearless in possession. Portugal are unlikely to keep Hazard, De Bruyne and Lukaku quiet all night, and if the Red Devils score the opener, Ronaldo and co will be forced to attack.

Belgium may have the edge on pure talent in the XI alone, but there’s fair questions to be asked about their reliability in knockout football. Portugal have the tournament experience. They have been there and done it, and Santos’ decision to play an extra midfielder could prove beneficial.

There’s no great value in backing either team here. They are well-matched, which could tempt some to back the draw after 90 minutes. Belgium’s style of play, though, makes over 2.5 goals the best bet, particularly with how Portugal defended against France and Germany.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals (+120)

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