Lokomotiv Moscow vs Bayer Leverkusen Champions League Matchday 5 Odds, Picks & Betting Preview

• It’s Matchday 5 in the UEFA Champions League next week
• The bottom two in Group D meet in Moscow in the ‘last chance saloon’
• The final chance for either Lokomotiv or Leverkusen to make their move has arrived with Bayer tipped as +112 favorites

Group D’s bottom two clash in Moscow on Matchday 5 on November 26, at 12:55 pm EST as this season’s UEFA Champions League group stage edges toward crunch time.

Lokomotiv Moscow and Bayer Leverkusen, with only a single win each, have one more shot at making that second spot which would take them to the knockout stages. On that basis, while there will still be work to do, this is a winner-takes-all tie. A draw or a defeat will signal the end of the road.

So, where’s the value? We’ll take a look.

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Bayer Leverkusen UCL Odds

Odds taken on Nov. 21

Leverkusen edge this one in the eyes of the bookies but there is so little to choose between the pair, who have for the most part been in the shadows of the top two (and favorites to go through) – Juve and Atletico Madrid.

Unsurprisingly, Juve and Atleti have pretty much controlled proceedings so far – three wins and a draw for the Italian giants has already assured their passage through to the knockout stages – but Atleti’s defeat in Leverkusen on Matchday 4 has opened up a sliver of a chance for the bottom two.

A positive result for either on Tuesday will mean the winner goes into Matchday 6 still with a chance of top two unless Atleti beat Juve in Turin – a result that looks unlikely given the Zebras’ 100% home record.

Moscow Looking for Repeat of Matchday 1

So, still all to play for in Moscow, with the Russians looking to match their result of Matchday 1 when they went to Germany and won 2-1. First-half goals from Grzegorz Krychowiak and Dmitri Barinov were enough to beat Leverkusen that night, whose only response was through a Benedikt Howdes own goal.

Unfortunately for the Muscovites, they were unable to build on that flying start and in their first home game were comfortably beaten 2-0 by Atletico Madrid. Things didn’t improve in the double-header with Juve who beat them home and away but worth noting is that both games were exceptionally close.

In Turin, Juve needed a late, quickfire double from Paulo Dybala to come from behind to win 2-1 and to win by that same score in Moscow the Italians needed an injury-time winner from Douglas Costa. So, let’s not underestimate Lokomotiv, as no team takes Juve all the way twice in the space of a fortnight without having some steel and quality.

Leverkusen’s Campaign a Slow Burner

Defeat at home on opening day was the worse possible start for Leverkusen, and there’s no escaping this has been a slow burner of a campaign for Peter Bosz’s team. In their first away trip of the group, they were soundly beaten 3-0 by Juve and followed this up with a closer but equally disappointing 1-0 defeat in Madrid.

Atleti’s defeat in Leverkusen on Matchday 4 has opened up a sliver of a chance for the bottom two.

At 0-0-3, the Germans were staring down the barrel but, with their future in the competition hanging by a slender thread, produced their best performance of the whole season to beat Atleti in Leverkusen.

On a pulsating evening, the Germans went ahead through a bizarre Thomas Partey own goal just before half-time and deservedly doubled their lead ten minutes into the second half through Kevin Volland’s close-range strike. In a feisty encounter, Leverkusen’s Nadiem Amiri was shown red on 84 minutes for a reckless challenge but the Germans held on with ten men even after Alvaro Morata pulled one back late on for Atleti.

Value with the Draw in a Must-Win?

So, it’s all set up for a battle royal in Moscow, with both teams having done just enough in the group to suggest a win is possible. For Lokomotiv, they need to rediscover the formula that saw them win in Germany, and for Leverkusen, it’s very much a case of tapping into the same vein that saw them beat Atletico. This makes it a tough call.

Other than Juve’s 3-0 win over Leverkusen and Atleti’s 2-0 win Moscow, every game in this group has been either a draw or decided by a single goal and this one will be no different. So much so, in both teams desperately going for the win, I can see this ending in the draw that will signal the end of the campaign for both.

My pick: Lokomotiv and Leverkusen to draw (+233)