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With 3-Point Lead, Poland Given -400 Odds to Win Euro 2020 Qualifying Group G

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Mar 28, 2020 · 6:44 PM PDT

Poland national team
Poland are in control of Euro 2020 qualifying Group G and will go one step closer to qualification if they beat North Macedonia in Warsaw on Sunday. Photo By Svetlana Beketova (Wiki Commons) [CC License].
  • Poland in control of Group G Euro 2020 qualifying
  • Slovenia and Austria meet on Sunday in the group’s make-or-break match-up
  • Check out our Group G preview and predictions below

Poland lead Group G but only by three points over Austria and by five points over Slovenia and Macedonia. With just three games to go, there is plenty of life left in this group, which continues on Sunday.

We’re looking to see where the value is. Is Poland the best bet to win Group G? Or is there a chance for an upset in the final weeks?

UEFA European Championship Group – G Odds

Team Current Position (points) Odds
Poland 1st (16 points) -400
Austria 2nd (13 points) +350
Slovenia 4th (11 points) +2500
North Macedonia 3rd (11 points) +5000
Israel 5th (8 points) +6600

*Odds taken on 10/12/19. 

Poland in Control

At -400 to win the group, there is little value to be had in betting on Poland but it’s hard to contest their odds, given they have conceded just two goals in qualifying to date – both in their away defeat in Slovenia. The only other points dropped were in their goalless draw at home against their closest rivals, Austria.

It’s a tough group though and even with a 5-1-1 record the Poland’s lead could be erased if they were to slip up against North Macedonia on Sunday. Even with a win, there will still be work to do but Robert Lewandowski and co will have one foot in the summer’s finals. And with such a sound defense at their core, few expect to see the Poles slip up.

For Austria, the task is that little bit more difficult and they have a huge game coming up on Sunday when they travel to Slovenia. A win for the home side will see them leapfrog the Austrians in the group table, and so it’s impossible to overstate how key this game is in the race for the automatic qualification places.

Massive Game in Ljubljana

If, and it’s a big if, the Austrians can win in Ljubljana then they too will have one foot in the finals. Not only will they have taken three points from their biggest rival, but they also have a favorable ‘run-in’ to look forward to, with a home game against North Macedonia and a trip to point-less Latvia on the final day. A win on Sunday leaves them on the brink of qualification.

Poland have conceded just two goals in qualifying to date – both in their away defeat in Slovenia

The Macedonians, however, are still in the mix and have given themselves an outside chance of making the Euro finals for the first time ever. A 3-2-2 record proves they are capable performers and last time out, a 2-1 win in Skopje over Slovenia gave their chances a massive boost. Upcoming away games in Poland and Austria may prove their ultimate undoing but it’s still been a great campaign for Macedonia.

Realistically, Israel are out of the reckoning, having already lost three of their seven games, and Latvia’s 0-0-7 record speaks for itself.

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If Austria Loses, it’s Game On

While it looks like Poland’s group to lose, there is a terrific scrap ongoing for the second qualifying spot and a huge game on Sunday in Ljubljana. If Slovenia can get the win – and it’s perfectly feasible – they take second spot and put themselves in pole position for qualification. And it’s worth reminding ourselves at this point that Slovenia did beat Poland 2-0 there on Matchday 5.

So, I’m backing the Poles to win the group but the value is most definitely with Slovenia to pip the Austrians for second place and the other automatic qualifying place.

Pick: 1st: Poland, 2nd Slovenia

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