PSG vs Bayern Munich Odds & Prediction – Champions League Round of 16 Leg 1
- PSG hosts Bayern Munich in the first leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tie on Tuesday, February 14th at 3:00 pm ET
- Bayern Munich has won three out of the last four meetings with PSG in the Champions League
- Get more PSG vs Bayern Munich odds and predictions below
The Champions League returns on Tuesday afternoon, with PSG vs Bayern Munich highlighting a two-match slate. Currently, both of these sides are favorites to win the entire competition, with respective Champions League odds of +750 and +600. Still, they have get through each other first which will be no small task with the German side favored in the PSG vs Bayern Munich odds.
Bayern was perfect in the group stage, conceding a mere two goals to Viktoria Plzen. Julian Nagelsmann’s side easily did the double on the likes of Inter Milan and Barcelona, which shows how ruthless they are against other big opposition. Conversely, PSG was only tripped up by a tricky Benfica side in their group stage matches. Their form has been questionable lately, but the return of Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Marco Veratti could spur them to victory at home in the PSG vs Bayern Munich picks.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| PSG | +165 |
| Bayern Munich | +150 |
| Draw | +275 |
Odds as of February 12th from DraftKings Sportsbook. Use this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on this match and claim a unique sign-up bonus.
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Overall, Bayern Munich are the moneyline favorites with PSG vs Bayern Munich odds of +150, not far behind PSG’s odds of +165. Bayern’s implied win probability is 40%, which is fair considering their recent head-to-head advantage. The Bavarians have won three out of their last four Champions League meetings with PSG, including the 2020 final, which saw Bayern lift their sixth European Cup.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Over/Under
In terms of goals, you have to bet big to get any value. The over on 2.5 goals has juicy odds of -190, while the over on 3.5 is much improved at +130. The under on that same amount also sits at -160, implying a 61.5% win probability. If you look at both of their last five matches across all competitions, the over on 3.5 goals has only hit 40% of the time. The odds are fairly priced here and there are a ton of goal scorers. Nonetheless, two of their head-to-head matches in the last three years have ended 1-0, which leads me away from a play on total goals.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Statistics
| 2.66 | Goals per game | 3.00 |
| 1.46 | Expected goals per game | 2.20 |
| 1.17 | Goals allowed per game | 0.33 |
| 1.17 | Expected goals allowed per game | 0.97 |
| 58.8% | Possession % | 58.0% |
| 0.0% | Clean Sheet % | 83.3% |
| 13.5 | Shots per game | 17.8 |
| D-W-W-L-L | Recent Form Guide (All Comps) | D-D-W-W-W |
Stats in the table from 2022/23 Champions League play.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Props – Neymar Goalscorer Odds
One prop to keep an eye on is Neymar to score anytime, with odds of +175. The Brazilian is the third most favored option here, and I rate him to step up in the midst of Messi and Mbappe, both being under 100%. Neymar has a great record against Bayern Munich, scoring four goals in just seven games against them in the Champions League. Also, he could see a lot of time against Joao Cancelo, who loves to get forward and is new to the Bayern system.
La dernière fois que Neymar a joué contre le Bayern, il se baladait complètement. pic.twitter.com/1jbn1dSVCy
— 60SecondesFoot (@60secondesF) February 7, 2023
PSG vs Bayern Munich Projected Lineups and Injuries
PSG Projected Lineup: Donnarumma, Mendes, Ramos, Marquinhos, Hakimi, Pereira, Veratti, Ruiz, Messi, Mbappe, Neymar
Major Injuries & Absences: Sanches, Mukiele, Mbappe (questionable)
Bayern Munich Projected Lineup: Sommer, Davies, De Ligt, Upamecano, Cancelo, Goretzka, Kimmich, Musiala, Coman, Muller, Sane
Major Injuries & Absences: Neuer, Gravenberch, Mazraoui, Mane, Hernandez, Muller (questionable)
PSG’s Defense is Not up to Par
While I think both teams score in this match, PSG’s defense is significantly more of a liability. In fact, the Parisians have conceded in five straight, averaging 1.6 goals allowed in the same span. It has been bad enough lately where fans are turning up to the training ground and booing PSG players as they arrive. Their 3-1 defeat to Monaco at the weekend displayed their inability to defend strongly in the box, defend the counter or play out from the back. Even without Sadio Mane, Bayern have a multi-pronged attack much more lethal than that of Monaco’s.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Prediction
All in all, I like Bayern Munich in this one for our PSG vs Bayern Munich picks, but will be taking the draw not bet to shave some risk off. This play still offers solid value at -115, which is a nice addition and counter on Neymar to score at +175.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Picks: Bayern Munich draw no bet (-115), Neymar to score (+175)
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Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
