Valencia vs Arsenal Leg 2 Odds & Picks – Europa League Semifinals
- Gunners with a two-goal lead
- Valencia away goal could prove crucial
- Los Ches in great form
Arsenal’s 3-1 home win over Valencia in the first-leg of this Europa League semifinal tie has given them an advantage ahead of this week’s second-leg on Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 3:00 pm EST.
But there is still plenty of work for the Gunners to do. Valencia’s away goal at the Emirates may well prove crucial as the two sides re-engage this week at the Mestalla Stadium.
Valencia vs Arsenal UEL Semifinal Leg 2 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Odds To Qualify |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | -0.5 (-116) | -116 | O3 (-102) | +250 |
| Arsenal | +0.5 (-104) | +270 | U3 (-118) | -325 |
| Draw | N/A | +260 | N/A | N/A |
*Odds taken on May 7, 2019
Interestingly, the bookies are predicting a very close one with Valencia favorites to win the tie but Arsenal still favorites to go through at -325.
Gunners off to a Flyer
In the first leg, a flying start by Valencia was rewarded with an opening goal from Mouctar Diakhaby, but the Gunners responded well and a quick-fire double from Alexandre Lacazette gave them a 2-1 half-time lead.
The second-half was tighter and there were fewer chances, but crucially Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang grabbed a third for the Gunners in the 90th minute.
ARSENAL 3 – 1 VALENCIA [EUROPA LEAGUE] HIGHLIGHTS 2018/19 pic.twitter.com/uMNRw3Q3Kt
— Ewure of KiKi ❁ (@kikigist) May 3, 2019
Valencia didn’t enter the Europa League until the knockout stages having initially qualified for the UEFA Champions League.
But after a competitive campaign they were just beaten to second-spot by Manchester United, with Juventus winning the group.
Unbeaten at Home in the Europa in Eleven
Los Ches have won their last eight games at the Mestalla in the Europa League and have been undefeated in their last 11 – during which time they have scored 22 goals and conceded just three.
?⚪Sıradaki maç?⚪
? 9 Mayıs 2019
⏰ 22:00 (TSİ)
? Europa League (Yarı final ikinci maçı)
⚽ Valencia
? Mestalla Stadium pic.twitter.com/0c1i8ZG0YF— Genç Arsenal (@gencarsenal) May 6, 2019
Also worth noting is that of the 19 European ties in which Valencia have lost the first leg of a tie, they have gone on to win on aggregate on no less than ten occasions – a really impressive stat – and an early goal at the Mestalla on Thursday would make for a difficult evening for the Gunners.
2-0 Will See Los Ches Through
The away goal at the Emirates means a 2-0 win will be enough to see Valencia qualify for the final and they warmed for it in style with a thumping 6-2 win at already-relegated SD Huesca at the weekend.
FULL TIME: #LaLigaSantander: SD HUESCA 2 vs 6 VALENCIA CF. [66’ Gonzalo Melero 90+2’ Alex Gallar; 2’ Daniel Wass 16’ 51’ Rodrigo 20’ 32’ Santi Mina 40’ Etxeita (OG)] #HuescaValencia pic.twitter.com/mlE7lEtukZ
— Y (@kakyuds) May 6, 2019
Arsenal in Midst of Slump
So, while Valencia enter this tie in good form, for Arsenal things have gone downhill of late. What was supposed to be a challenge for a top four Premier League spot, had floundered badly with a run of one win in six.
At the weekend they could only manage a home draw against lowly Brighton.
Arsenal 1-1 Brighton: 6 talking points as Gunners have top four hopes all but ended https://t.co/OQJGkD84jR pic.twitter.com/s9au4VyykV
— Mirror Football (@MirrorFootball) May 5, 2019
There are other worrying signs for the Gunners, particularly the fact they have lost their last four two-legged ties against Spanish opponents and overall have won just 11 of their 34 European ties against Spanish opposition.
Valencia vs Arsenal UEL Stats
| 10/13 | Number of wins in 2019 EL / Number of games | 5/7 |
| 25/1.92 | Number of goals scored in 2019 EL / Per game | 12/1.71 |
| 7/0.5 | Number of goals conceded in 2019 EL / Per game | 6/0.9 |
| 2 | Number of European trophies won | 2 |
| 13 | Number of domestic trophies won | 28 |
| 6 | Number of European semifinals | 7 |
| 164/12.6 | Total goal attempts in 2019 EL/Per game | 57/8.1 |
| 6165/85% | Total passes completed in 2019 EL / Pass completion | 2667/84% |
In their favor, however, is that they were able to win away in Napoli in their quarterfinal, and overall their away record in the Europa League is quite good with eight wins, one draw and four losses.
So, while their recent form is not on their side, their history in this competition is something they must use as a positive.
? | #AFC
This is Valencia's first European semi-final appearance since 2013/14, when they reached the same stage of this competition before being eliminated by a Sevilla side that were managed by Unai Emery. pic.twitter.com/3V3jgCgLWC
— afcSource™ (@afcSource) May 2, 2019
Noisy Mestalla Will Make it Tough for Gunners
Thursday’s outcome will likely be massively impacted by the opening minutes of the game, with the Mestalla’s notoriously noisy and passionate crowd likely to make it a real test for Arsenal. An early goal for Valencia will tilt the balance in their favor and then it will be down to how the Gunners respond.
Poor form is a problem for Arsenal though and the disillusioned look on their players’ faces at the weekend following the Brighton game is a problem for manager Unai Emery.
We think that Valencia will use the momentum they have and the occasion to achieve the 2-0 win they need to qualify for the final.
Our pick: Valencia 2-0
Once just a sports fanatic, fan-turned-writer Gary Gowers has been featured on European television and radio networks to discuss several professional football clubs. His work can be found in an assortment of publications like The Metro, MyFootballWriter.com, and BBC Radio Norfolk.
