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Valencia vs Arsenal Leg 2 Odds & Picks – Europa League Semifinals

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Mar 31, 2020 · 6:38 AM PDT

Mestalla Stadium
The magnificent Mestalla Stadium hosts Valencia's second-leg Europa League semifinal against Arsenal. Photo By Pepito (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Gunners with a two-goal lead
  • Valencia away goal could prove crucial
  • Los Ches in great form

Arsenal’s 3-1 home win over Valencia in the first-leg of this Europa League semifinal tie has given them an advantage ahead of this week’s second-leg on Thursday, May 9, 2019 at 3:00 pm EST.

But there is still plenty of work for the Gunners to do. Valencia’s away goal at the Emirates may well prove crucial as the two sides re-engage this week at the Mestalla Stadium.

Valencia vs Arsenal UEL Semifinal Leg 2 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Odds To Qualify
Valencia -0.5 (-116) -116 O3 (-102) +250
Arsenal +0.5 (-104) +270 U3 (-118) -325
Draw N/A +260 N/A N/A

*Odds taken on May 7, 2019

Interestingly, the bookies are predicting a very close one with Valencia favorites to win the tie but Arsenal still favorites to go through at -325.

Gunners off to a Flyer

In the first leg, a flying start by Valencia was rewarded with an opening goal from Mouctar Diakhaby, but the Gunners responded well and a quick-fire double from Alexandre Lacazette gave them a 2-1 half-time lead.

The second-half was tighter and there were fewer chances, but crucially Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang grabbed a third for the Gunners in the 90th minute.

Valencia didn’t enter the Europa League until the knockout stages having initially qualified for the UEFA Champions League.

But after a competitive campaign they were just beaten to second-spot by Manchester United, with Juventus winning the group.

Unbeaten at Home in the Europa in Eleven

Los Ches have won their last eight games at the Mestalla in the Europa League and have been undefeated in their last 11 – during which time they have scored 22 goals and conceded just three.

Also worth noting is that of the 19 European ties in which Valencia have lost the first leg of a tie, they have gone on to win on aggregate on no less than ten occasions – a really impressive stat – and an early goal at the Mestalla on Thursday would make for a difficult evening for the Gunners.

2-0 Will See Los Ches Through

The away goal at the Emirates means a 2-0 win will be enough to see Valencia qualify for the final and they warmed for it in style with a thumping 6-2 win at already-relegated SD Huesca at the weekend.

Arsenal in Midst of Slump

So, while Valencia enter this tie in good form, for Arsenal things have gone downhill of late. What was supposed to be a challenge for a top four Premier League spot, had floundered badly with a run of one win in six.

At the weekend they could only manage a home draw against lowly Brighton.

There are other worrying signs for the Gunners, particularly the fact they have lost their last four two-legged ties against Spanish opponents and overall have won just 11 of their 34 European ties against Spanish opposition.

 Valencia vs Arsenal UEL Stats

Valencia
VS
Arsenal
10/13 Number of wins in 2019 EL / Number of games 5/7
25/1.92 Number of goals scored in 2019 EL / Per game 12/1.71
7/0.5 Number of goals conceded in 2019 EL / Per game 6/0.9
2 Number of European trophies won 2
13 Number of domestic trophies won 28
6 Number of European semifinals 7
164/12.6 Total goal attempts in 2019 EL/Per game 57/8.1
6165/85% Total passes completed in 2019 EL / Pass completion 2667/84%

 

In their favor, however, is that they were able to win away in Napoli in their quarterfinal, and overall their away record in the Europa League is quite good with eight wins, one draw and four losses.

So, while their recent form is not on their side, their history in this competition is something they must use as a positive.

Noisy Mestalla Will Make it Tough for Gunners

Thursday’s outcome will likely be massively impacted by the opening minutes of the game, with the Mestalla’s notoriously noisy and passionate crowd likely to make it a real test for Arsenal. An early goal for Valencia will tilt the balance in their favor and then it will be down to how the Gunners respond.

Poor form is a problem for Arsenal though and the disillusioned look on their players’ faces at the weekend following the Brighton game is a problem for manager Unai Emery.

We think that Valencia will use the momentum they have and the occasion to achieve the 2-0 win they need to qualify for the final.

Our pick: Valencia 2-0

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