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2019 ATP Paris Masters Semifinals Odds & Pick: Djokovic vs Dimitrov

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 12:08 PM PDT

Novak Djokovic returning a ball.
Can Novak Djokovic beat Grigor Dimitrov in the Paris Masters semis on Saturday? Photo by Keith Allison (Wiki Commons)
  • Grigor Dimitrov has already ousted two seeded players at the Paris Masters
  • Novak Djokovic has yet to lose a set in this tournament, losing a total of just 20 games
  • Djokovic holds an 8-1 lifetime record against Dimitrov, and is a massive favorite this Saturday

The Paris Masters are down to the final four. While two of the names are not a big surprise (Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic), the other two have made unexpected runs (Denis Shapovalov and Grigor Dimitrov).

Dimitrov will take on Djokovic on Saturday, but is he at all capable of pulling off a big upset against the pre-tournament favorite?

Grigor Dimitrov vs Novak Djokovic Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Grigor Dimitrov +4.5 (-117) +545 O 21.5 (-117)
Novak Djokovic -4.5 (-103) -695 U 21.5 (-103)

Odds taken Nov. 1, 2019

Dimitrov Has Made An Impressive Run

It’s been a fairly bizarre year for Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov. He’s just 22-20 on the year but made a shocking run to the semis at the 2019 U.S. Open and has now won four straight matches at the Paris Masters. In other words, nine of his 22 wins have come at two events; he has just 13 wins otherwise.

What’s shocking about this run is that he hadn’t won more than one match in any of his previous four tournaments. Now he’s stepped up at the Paris Masters to not only win four matches and get to the semis, but beat two seeded players along the way.

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Dimitrov first ousted No. 12 David Goffin in the second round and while a win over Goffin isn’t all that impressive, he did beat No. 5 Dominic Thiem in straight sets right after. Thiem has been red-hot, winning two of the last three tournaments. The question here is can Dimitrov beat one of the best in the business?

Djokovic Is On Top Of His Game

Djokovic was forced out of the U.S. Open prematurely due to injury but he’s come back strong since. He won the Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championship, got to the quarters at the Shanghai Masters, and is now in the semis at the Paris Masters.

So far this tournament, Djokovic hasn’t really had to break a sweat as he’s cleaned out everyone in his path. He’s won all three of his matches in straight sets, losing a total of just 20 games in the process. His toughest test came against No. 7 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarters, the man who beat him at Shanghai.

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Djokovic showed just how focused he is right now as he smoked him 6-1, 6-2. When he’s playing like this, he’s tough to beat at any point – let alone by Dimitrov.

Grigor Dimitrov vs Novak Djokovic Statistical Comparison

22-20 2019 Record 51-9
0 2019 Singles Titles 4
1 Head-To-Head Record 8
1 Sets Lost at 2019 Paris Masters 0
2 Seeded Players Defeated at 2019 Paris Masters 1

Djokovic Should Smoke Dimitrov

Of course, Djokovic is a big favorite here and it’s easy to see why. Dimitrov is hot right now but the only other time he played like this was at the U.S. Open and even at his best, he couldn’t be Daniil Medvedev. In this spot, he’s going to need a minor miracle to beat Djokovic.

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Keep in mind that Djokovic has won eight of nine career meetings between the players. Dimitrov hasn’t beaten him since 2013 and I don’t see it happening on Saturday.

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