Alexander Zverev vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – Paris Masters Semifinals

• The Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Paris Masters semifinal Saturday is a rematch of the 2020 final
• Medvedev has won their last three encounters; Zverev leads the rivalry 5-4 overall
• Read on for analysis of their tournaments so far, how they match up, and a prediction

No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev and No. 4 Alexander Zverev will meet for the 10th time in their relatively short careers, Saturday at 11:30 am ET at the Paris Masters.

These two seem to only meet on big occasions – Masters 1000 events, and up.

Oddly, though, they have yet to meet in a Grand Slam setting.

Alexander Zverev vs Daniil Medvedev Odds

Odds as of Nov. 5 at DraftKings

Medvedev Survives Tricky Gaston-Crowd Combo

Medvedev had to be on his guard.

With another fully all-in partisan crowd, and the fact that French lefty Hugo Gaston’s game style very much is anathema to the weaknesses in the Russian’s game, there were some hugely tense moments.

In the end, Medvedev won 7-6 (7), 6-4. It was tougher than even that sounds.

Gaston broke Medvedev at 4-4 in the first set. He found himself with three set points at 40-love, with a sitter forehand on his first set point.

But he missed it.

Gaston was by far the better player in the first set. And yet he lost it in a tiebreak.

Medvedev led by two breaks at one point  in the second set and Gaston appeared on fumes. Still, it was too close.

More than winning it, Medvedev survived it. The fact that he was far fresher physically had to help.

Alexander Zverev vs Daniil Medvedev

Zverev East Past Ruud

Later Friday, Zverev met Casper Ruud. The result was a competitive, but straight-sets victory.

On hard court, Zverev has too much power and Ruud not enough aggression. It took just over 90 minutes.

Zverev, Medvedev and Ruud are the most successful players after Wimbledon in terms of their win rate. pic.twitter.com/9mOOrJIM2b

— ilyza1002 (@ilyza1002) November 1, 2021

Ruud has won the most matches of any top 20 player since Wimbledon. Although the 22-year-old went on a winning streak at a series of 250-level ATP Tour events on clay, which weren’t populated by many (if any) other top players.

The next two? Medvedev and Zverev.

 Alexander Zverev vs Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev Has Won the Last Three Meetings

Medvedev has faced Zverev three times over the last year, and has won all three after losing five of their first six meetings.

Notably, they met a year ago in the same arena in suburban Paris, on the last day.

The two ended up the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds, on opposite sides of the draw. And they met in a thrilling final, with Medvedev pulling off the comeback victory.

So far in his career, Zverev still has his best results in the 2-of-3 set format.  But as good as he is, Medvedev is just as good. Maybe better.

Since that Paris final a year ago, Medvedev is 42-9 (82.4%) in the best-of-three format. Zverev is 43-13 (76.8%).

Their career winning percentages are almost identical although the younger Zverev has played significantly more career matches.

Until the German turned the corner last summer in winning the gold medal at the Olympics, you’d have made Medvedev a bigger favorite to win this one.

https://twitter.com/funnyzeitgist/status/1456312499268116480

But he has looked really good this week, especially in his toughest match – a third-round clash against a vintage Grigor Dimitrov.

This one is literally too close to call.

So the side props – over 23.5 games (+105) seems possible. Either winning a total of more than 12.5 games (Zverev at -125, Medvedev at -135) would come good either with a three-setter, or with one of the players winning a set in a tiebreak or 7-5.

A first-set tiebreak is at +200.

Best Bet: over 2.5 sets (+130).