Barbora Krejčíková vs Garbiñe Muguruza – WTA Finals Round Robin

• Barbora Krejčíková and Garbiñe Muguruza both need the match to stay alive at the WTA Finals
• Their last match, won by Krejčíková in the fourth round of the US Open, ended in major drama
• The higher-ranked Krejčíková is the slight favorite Friday at 8:30 pm ET. We break down the matchup

Barbora Krejčíková is doing double duty at the WTA Finals in Guadalajara, having qualified in both singles and doubles.

Given she looks like she’s running on fumes, that’s not going to help her chances in the singles.

Meanwhile, Garbiñe Muguruza nearly pulled off the upset against Karolina Plíšková Wednesday, against whom she was 2-8 going in.  Her form looked excellent.

Barbora Krejčíková vs Garbiñe Muguruza Odds

Odds as of Nov. 12 at DraftKings

Muguruza Comes Close vs Plíšková

Going into her match against Plíšková Wednesday, Muguruza had lost eight of their last nine meetings. Their two previous meetings at the WTA Finals barely lasted an hour each.

So it was an impressive surprise that Muguruza took the first set, and hung in there until the very end. Finally, Plíšková pulled it out 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 (4) in two hours, 26 minutes.

Muguruza’s form was good enough that she can at least have realistic hopes for the rest of the week.

Barbora Krejčíková vs Garbiñe Muguruza Head-to-Head

Krejčíková Up and Down vs Konteveit

Anett Kontaveit came into Guadalajara on a roll, having run the table in the last tournaments before the deadline to grab the final spot,

Still, Krejčíková is the world No. 2.

In the end, it was just one break per set in a 6-3, 6-4 Kontaveit win. Krejčíková did some good things, but not nearly enough.

She admitted she was struggling.

“It’s just difficult because a couple days ago I was actually playing (indoors) in Europe, now I’m here. It’s really, really, really difficult. I’m going to work with that and I hope it’s going to get better and I’m going to have better matches,” Krejčíková said afterwards.

The Czech had doubles late Thursday night to get adjusted a little more. She and partner Katerina Siniakova won fairly routinely.

And overnight on Thursday, her odds improved. She went from a +105/-135 underdog to a much closer -105/-120.

Barbora Krejčíková vs Garbiñe Muguruza Match History

Krejčíková With More Variety, Better Movement

On paper, Krejčíková is the better player.

She can change directions beautifully with her effortless groundstrokes and can hit her forehands and backhands down the line as easily as crosscourt.

For a player like Muguruza who isn’t the best defender, it’s tough to pick more likely targets to hustle to.

As well, the Czech’s doubles skills allow her to recognize opportunities to come and put the ball away at the net.

Of course, the “better” player on paper doesn’t always win.

Muguruza Drops the Last Two Meetings

Krejčíková and Muguruza have played three times in 2021.

Their first came meeting right at the beginning of Krejčíková’s rise, a shock effort in reaching the final of the WTA 1000 tournament in Dubai in March. Even with the occasion of the Czech’s first WTA singles final (and a big one, at that), it was fairly close.

Fast-forward to the American summer, and Krejčíková was a Grand Slam champion. She defeated Muguruza twice: in the WTA 1000 in Cincinnati, and then in the fourth round of the US Open two weeks later.

In that one, there was … drama.

The Spaniard Will be Highly Motivated

That last meeting might add fuel to the always burning Muguruza fire in this one.

It was clear Krejčíková was ailing. But it was also true that Muguruza had come back from a 0-4 second-set deficit and was leading 6-5 when the health drama began on the other side.

Muguruza seems like the type that doesn’t forget a perceived offense. She’ll have the crowd, too. And she’s playing well enough to win.

Best Bet: Muguruza in Two Sets (+170)