Canada vs Russia Odds & Picks – ATP Cup Semifinals

• Led by world No. 2 Daniil Medvedev, Russia is a surprise entry into the ATP Cup semifinals
• Canada posted an impressive win over Alexander Zverev and Germany to clinch its final-four spot
• Read on for a breakdown of Saturday’s semifinal matchup (1:30 am ET) as we make our picks
  

The winner of Canada vs Russia will play Spain in Sunday’s ATP Cup finals.

Will it be Canada, with two young top-15 players?

Or will be it Russia, a team that looks nothing like it did when it won last year’s ATP Cup at the start of the season and the Davis Cup finals at the end of it?

Auger-Aliassime vs Medvedev Odds

Odds as of Jan. 7 at Barstool Sportsbook

Medvedev a Double Threat

To say world No. 2 Daniil Medvedev is not known for his doubles prowess is to … understate the case.

But Russia is thin on personnel;  Andrey Rublev and Aslan Karatsev both tested positive for COVID in recent weeks and couldn’t make the trip. Medvedev basically has had no option but to do double duty and take over.

France’s Ugo Humbert pulled off a shocker in a third-set tiebreak in Medvedev’s first singles match of the week.

But after that tough ice breaker, Medvedev has gone undefeated.

When it came down to the doubles against powerhouse Italy – the favorites to take the title – he and Safiullin defeated top-10 singles players Jannik Sinner and Matteo Berrettini.

Nervy Win for Auger-Aliassime Over Zverev

After Auger-Aliassime let one get away from him against Taylor Fritz in the opening tie against the US, there were flashbacks to similar situations in 2021.

In the crucial tie against Germany Thursday that would decide Canada’s fate, there were moments against world No. 3 Alexander Zverev where you got the same feeling.

Auger-Aliassime vs Medvedev Match History

Zverev is a maestro of the best-of-three format. And putting aside Auger-Aliassime’s impressive five-set win at Wimbledon last summer, he had only taken a set from the German in four best-of-three ATP Tour meetings.

But the Canadian pulled it out beautifully.

Heartbreakers for Auger-Aliassime vs Medvedev

Both of Auger-Aliassime’s losses against Medvedev have been tough ones.

The Canadian made a great run to the US Open semifinals – only to lose in straight sets.

And in Toronto in 2018, just turning 18, he looked poised for a huge win but ended up being crushed at home, in a deciding tiebreak.

Auger-Aliassime vs Medvedev Head-to-Head

Medvedev is just too steady, too reliable in the clutch moments. And Auger-Aliassime will put pressure on himself, feeling he has to do something special to find a way over Medvedev. Because it’s almost impossible to get through him.

Best Bet: Over 0.5 tiebreaks (+148)

Shapovalov vs Safiullin Odds

It sounds crazy to think that Shapovalov will have all the pressure on him against the world’s No. 151.

But he has little choice but to take care of his more obscure rival in impressive fashion to open the tie, with Auger-Aliassime up against it.

Shapovalov vs Safiullin Head-to-Head

Safiullin an ATP Cup Revelation

At 24, not having broken into the top 150 yet, Safiullin has surprised in Sydney.

He has beaten the rising Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech and the sturdy Aussie James Duckworth. He offered Sinner solid resistance in defeat. And he has backed partner Medvedev to a 3-0 record in doubles.

But Shapovalov is a far superior player, and a lefty.

The Canadian’s tight win over Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff – a player who has given him fits many times in his career – will only give him even more confidence.

But he needs to be efficient, and not waste any energy. Because he’ll be needed for the doubles.

Best Bet: Under 22.5 Games (-125)