Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Odds & Prediction – ATP Next Gen Finals
- The Next Gen Finals final will feature Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda
- The match will take place late Saturday night in Milan, Italy (3 p.m. ET)
- The 18-year-old Spaniard, three years younger than his American opponent, is the favorite
It feels appropriate (although it doesn’t always happen) that the two players undefeated in a round-robin meet in the final. And that’s the case with Carlos Alcaraz of Spain and Sebastian Korda of the U.S. – who also happen to be the two top seeds at the ATP Next Gen Finals.
As it happens, the two rising stars have never played before at any level, so there’s a lot on the line in their first meeting.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) | -3.5 (-115) | -300 | O 22.5 (-125) |
| [2] Sebastian Korda (USA) | +3.5 (-115) | +230 | U 22.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Nov. 12 at DraftKings
Only One Set Lost as Alcaraz Breezes
To the surprise of no one, the youngest player in the Next Gen Finals draw, and also the one with the highest ATP Tour ranking, has barely had to sweat in reaching the final.
Our finalists are ready 🙌
Here's how @alcarazcarlos03 & @SebiKorda made their way to the @intesasanpaolo #NextGenATPFinals final! pic.twitter.com/VOuOwN512G
— Next Gen ATP Finals (@nextgenfinals) November 13, 2021
Alcaraz has won 12 of the 13 short-form sets he has played this week.
Alcaraz’s Undefeated Road to the Final
| Round | Opponent | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| RR | [7] Holger Rune (DEN) | 4-3 (6), 4-2, 4-0 | Alcaraz |
| RR | [5] Juan Manuel Cerundolo (ARG) | 4-0, 4-1, 2-4, 4-3 (3) | Alcaraz |
| RR | [4] Brandon Nakashima (USA) | 4-3, 4-1, 4-3 (4) | Alcaraz |
| SF | [6] Sebastian Baez (ARG) | 4-2, 4-1, 4-2 | Alcaraz |
Korda Guts out Two Five-Setters En Route
In sharp contrast, the 21-year-old Korda has had to come back in two of his four matches so far.
Against crafty lefthander Hugo Gaston of France in his opener, Korda quickly went down two sets to none before coming back to win in five.
Korda’s Undefeated Road to the Final
| Round | Opponent | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| RR | [8] Hugo Gaston (FRA) | 3-4 (2), 3-4 (6), 4-0, 4-3 (3), 4-0 | Korda |
| RR | [6] Sebastian Baez (ARG) | 4-3 (3), 4-2, 4-2 | Korda |
| RR | [3] Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) | 4-2, 4-3 (4), 4-2 | Korda |
| SF | [4] Brandon Nakashima (USA) | 4-3 (3), 2-4, 1-4, 4-2, 4-2 | Korda |
Korda found himself in some trouble again in the semifinal against fellow American Brandon Nakashima, who finished second to Alcaraz in the other pool group and earned a semifinal spot.
But Korda pulled that one out as well.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Head-to-Head
| 18 (May 5, 2003) | Age | 21 (July 5, 2000) |
| El Palmar, Murcia, Spain | Birthplace | Bradenton, Fla. |
| 6-1 | Height | 6-5 |
| 1 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 1 |
| No. 32 (Nov. 8, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 38 (Oct. 18, 2021) |
| No. 32 | Current Ranking | No. 39 |
| $1,288,893 | Career Prize Money | $1,276,993 |
| 31-17 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 31-17 |
| 0 | Career Head to Head | 0 |
Three Years Apart, Similar Roads
Even though they are nearly three years apart, Alcaraz and Korda’s career arcs are nearly identical.
Before 2021, Alcaraz was a career 1-1 at the ATP Tour level. At 3-4, Korda hadn’t had much more experience.
Alcaraz was ranked No. 141 to start the season; he has moved up over 100 spots. Korda began at No. 119; he has moved up 70 spots.
Their 2021 prize money is nearly identical. Their won-loss records are exactly the same. And each has won his first ATP Tour singles title.
Alcaraz and Korda 2021 – By the Numbers
| Category | Carlos Alcaraz | Sebastian Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 119 | 232 |
| Double Faults | 101 | 118 |
| First Serve % | 63% | 65% |
| % of Service Games Won | 75% | 80% |
| Second Serve Points Won | 53% | 50% |
| Saved Break Points % | 58% | 65% |
| First-Serve Return Points Won | 33% | 31% |
| Second-Serve Return Points Won | 52% | 52% |
| Break-Point Conversion Rate | 43% | 41% |
| Total Points Won | 51% | 51% |
But the differences on the court are significant. The growing consensus is that few, if any players, hit the ball as hard as Alcaraz does despite his relatively average (by today’s standards) height.
He has shown an impressive and precocious willingness to move forward to finish points at the net.
On the other hand, Korda’s on-court identity remains a work in progress. His 6-5 stature gives him great leverage on the serve. And he moves beautifully despite his height.
But Alcaraz’s defense, as he’s displayed so many times, is peerless. It’s a game-changer.
Korda’s numbers on serve are better. He has nearly twice as many aces. His ratio of aces to double faults is far superior, and he holds serve much more often. He’s also much better at getting out of trouble when his opponent does create break points.
In the end, though, they’ve ended up at the same place at the end of the season.
So far this week, Korda has hit 30 aces and just five double faults, saving nearly 80 per cent of the break-point chances against him. He’ll have to keep up that level to have a shot.
Best Bet: Alcaraz in four sets (+275)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
