Daniil Medvedev vs Reilly Opelka Odds & Prediction – ATP National Bank Open Finals

• Top-seeded Daniil Medvedev is the overwhelming -625 favorite vs Reilly Opelka in the men’s singles final of the ATP National Bank Open on Sunday, August 15
• The #1 seed has won this tournament in three of the past four years
• An unseeded played hasn’t won the event since 2002 – see who we like below

Reilly Opelka finally lost a tiebreaker. However, the unseeded American remains unbroken in the ATP National Bank Open. Can top-seeded Daniil Medvedev be the one who finally breaks Opelka in Sunday’s men’s singles final?

History says yes, that will indeed be the case. Over the past four tournaments, the top-seeded player has emerged as champion three times. Only once since 2004 has a player seeded lower than #4 won the tournament.

Although unseeded American Opelka continues to defy the odds, the oddsmakers are still refusing to count on him. Medvedev is established as the heavy -625 odds-on favorite to capture Sunday’s final.

ATP National Bank Open Final Odds

Odds as of August 15 at DraftKings

The match is slated for a 4pm ET start at the Aviva Centre. The Tennis Channel will be carrying the action.

Easy On The Isner

Medvedev didn’t really need to break much of a sweat in overcoming American John Isner in Saturday’s semifinal. He cruised to a 6-2, 6-2 victory in just 55 minutes.

What’s most important to note from this match was how easily Medvedev contained the normal service advantage that Isner holds over opponents. Putting Isner’s serve into play is a challenge most opponents struggle to achieve. He’d suffered just three service breaks through his first four matches in Toronto.

How good was that from Medvedev 🤯

Medvedev 6-2 6-2 Isner. Opelka awaits in the final. #NBO21 pic.twitter.com/CLG4DVqFHm

— ATP Tour (@atptour) August 15, 2021

Saturday, Medvedev broke Isner’s serve four times in eight service games. The Russian won 50% of his return points. In the first set, Medvedev put 86% of his returns in the court. For the match, the world #2 successfully made 84% of his returns.

Since he’ll be facing another monstrous service game in Opelka in the final, Medvedev’s handling of Isner’s service serves notice that he’ll be ready for everything that Opelka can hit at him. Medvedev also put on display his own dominant service game. He did so by closing out the first set against Isner with four successive aces.

The Nine Lives Of Reilly

Opelka keeps playing with fire in Toronto but it’s his opponents who continue to get burned. As has been his practice in Toronto, Opelka dropped the opening set of his semifinal to Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The Greek player won via tiebreaker 7-6(7-2). It was the first time in five tiebreakers during the tournament that Opelka had come out on the short end. They’d play another tiebreaker in the second set. It was Opelka’s fifth tiebreaker in six sets and this time, he came out ahead 7-6(7-4). He won the third set 6-4 to capture the match.

What a Saturday spent returning the Opelka serve does to you…

😔 #NBO21 pic.twitter.com/oJwYKGaehK

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) August 14, 2021

In five matches during this tourney, world #32 Opelka has worked the full three sets on three occasions. Each time, he’s needed to rally after dropping the first set. He was 0-6 this season in deciding sets prior to Toronto.

It took him two hours and 34 minutes but in beating the world’s #3 player, Opelka claimed his first career victory over a player ranked in the top five.

Service With A Smile

The 6-foot-6 Medvedev can nearly stand eye-to-eye with the 6-foot-10 Opelka. More importantly, the world #2 can match the American when it comes to a powerful service game. He just took out the 6-foot-10 Isner in the semis. Medvedev strategically moved 2-3 steps closer to the baseline on Isner’s serve, taking away Isner’s angle.

Finals tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/bCuTis8aax

— Daniil Medvedev (@DaniilMedwed) August 15, 2021

The two players have clashed four previous times. Medvedev won three of those matches. However, they’ve been tight affairs. All three meetings on hard courts went the full three sets.

Daniil Medvedev vs Reilly Opelka Stats

Opelka will be playing in his first Masters 1000 final. It’s the seventh one for Medvedev and his second in this tournament.

Your 2021 Toronto final:
🇷🇺 @DaniilMedwed v. @ReillyOpelka 🇺🇸#NB021 pic.twitter.com/s970IupMdK

— ATP Tour (@atptour) August 15, 2021

An unseeded player hasn’t won this event since Argentina’s Guillermo Canas in 2002. On the other hand, top seeds have won the tournament five times since 2011.

Pick: Daniil Medvedev (-625); Medvedev 2-1 (+333).