Diego Schwartzman vs Rafael Nadal Odds & Preview: French Open Men’s Singles Semifinals
- Diego Schwartzman and Rafael Nadal meet Friday in a French Open Semifinal
- Nadal has won all 12 finals he has played at Roland Garros
- What is the best way to wager on the action from Paris?
What is the reward for the biggest win of your career, when you emptied the tank to beat one of the best players in the world? In the case of Diego Schwartzman, it’s a matchup with the greatest clay-court player in history, and arguably the most decorated athlete the sport has ever seen.
Schwartzman was brilliant getting by Dominic Thiem in a five-set match that lasted over five hours on Tuesday. Now he gets Rafael Nadal, who has won the French Open a dozen times and is one major championship shy of Roger Federer’s record 20 grand slam titles.
Let’s examine the semifinal battle and consider some of the betting options.
Schwartzman vs Nadal French Open Semifinal Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Schwartzman | +7.5 games (-120) | +525 | Over 32.5 games (-121) |
| Rafael Nadal | -7.5 games (-105) | -770 | Under 32.5 games (-104) |
All odds from DraftKings taken Oct. 7
Schwartzman vs Nadal History
Last month these two met on a clay court in Rome and Schwartzman pulled the upset. He didn’t sugarcoat how well he had to play in order to beat Nadal.
That was Schwartzman’s first win in 10 tries against Nadal. This will be their sixth meeting on clay. Nadal won the first four with all but one in straight sets. In Rome in September Schwartzman won 6-2, 7-5.
Schwartzman vs Nadal Stats
| 14 | ATP Ranking | 2 |
| 1-9 | Head-to-Head | 9-1 |
| 28 | Age | 34 |
| 20-9 | 2020 record | 20-4 |
| 3 | Career Singles Titles | 85 |
| 0 | Grand Slam Titles | 19 |
Schwartzman Has Time to Recover
Schwartzman’s win over Thiem had to be exhausting, but it took place early on Tuesday. His first four matches in Paris this year all were in straight sets.
This is the first major semifinal for Schwartzman. He has been a quarterfinalist three times including at the French Open in 2018. To a degree, he is playing with house money at this point.
Rafa vs History
Nadal is now 34 years old and the argument that he is the greatest player in tennis history strengthens considerably if he reaches and passes Federer in major titles. He is clearly the most dominant single tournament player. His 12 titles at the French Open are four more than Federer has Wimbledon championships, and four better than Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open.
Rafael Nadal has played his 1⃣0⃣0⃣th match at @rolandgarros on yesterday.
98 victories
2 defeats— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) October 7, 2020
Through five matches in Paris this year Nadal has yet to lose a set. He got on the court late Tuesday night and despite winning a fifth consecutive straight-set affair, his victory over Jannik Sinner did not end until the early morning hours of Wednesday.
How to Bet the Semifinal
If you think this match is uncompetitive then betting Nadal in some form or fashion makes sense, maybe an under or an alternative line. That said, Schwartzman is playing great and recently beat Rafa. That gives us the inkling he could be semi-competitive. The odds that Schwartzman wins exactly one set and loses three sets to one are +265. That’s strong value for a very realistic result.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
