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Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka Picks & Odds – Australian Open Women’s Singles Final

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Feb 17, 2023 · 9:20 AM PST

Aryna Sabalenka serves
Jan 26, 2023; Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Aryna Sabalenka of Russia serves against Magda Linette of Poland on day eleven of the 2023 Australian Open tennis tournament at Melbourne Park. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
  • Aryna Sabalenka, the No. 5 seed, has finally reached her first Grand Slam singles final
  • Elena Rybakina, the reigning Wimbledon champion, is in her second
  • Sabalenka, seeded No. 5 to Rybakina’s No. 22, is the favorite in Rybakina vs Sabalenka picks. We break down the matchup here

With No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek and No. 2 Ons Jabeur out early, the two women who survived to the Australian Open women’s singles final are seeded No. 5 (Aryna Sabalenka) and No. 22 (Elena Rybakina). It’s Sabalenka favored in the Rybakina vs Sabalenka odds on Saturday.

Rybakina vs Sabalenka Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[22] Elena Rybakina (KAZ) +1.5 (-115 +110 O 23.5 (-105)
[5] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) -1.5 (-105) -135 U 23.5 (-120)

Odds as of Jan. 27 at DraftKings Sportsbook

If Rybakina wins the Australian Open, she’ll be ranked No. 8. Even if she loses, she’ll leap into the top 10 for the first time, at No. 10.

Whatever happens, Sabalenka will move up three spots from her current No. 5 to match her career-high ranking of No. 2. And it’s hard to argue she doesn’t belong there.

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Rybakina on a Roll

There was certainly a corner of the tennis universe that had two-time champion Victoria Azarenka turning back the clock to her titles in 2012 and 2013 and upset Rybakina in the semifinals on Thursday.

It didn’t happen.

Rybakina’s superior firepower – especially on serve – proved to be too much in a 7-6 (4), 6-3 win that took an hour and 41 minutes.

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The Belarussian had her chances – eight break-point opportunities in all, and a lot of them on second serves. But she was broken five times herself. And she was able to win just 22 percent of points on her own second serve.

Sabalenka, her struggles with the service yips seemingly under control for now, has a far superior second serve to that of Azarenka.

So that’ll be a more significant challenge for Rybakina in the final.

Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka Head-to-Head

Elena Rybakina
Aryna Sabalenka
23 (June 17, 1999) Age 24 (May 5, 1998)
Moscow, Russia Birthplace Minsk, Belarus
6-0 Height 5-11
3 Career WTA Singles Titles 11
No. 12 (Jan. 17, 2022) Career-High Ranking No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021)
No. 25 Current Ranking No. 5
$6,389,853 Career Prize Money $12,302,010
41-23 2022 Won/Loss Record 28-22
0 Head-to-Head Wins 3

Sabalenka Looking Like a Champion

Has Titletown time finally arrived for Sabalenka, a 24-year-old from Belarus who reached two Grand Slam semifinals in 2021, and the US Open semi for a second straight year last year?

In all three cases, she was denied.

She is 10-0 on the season so far: 4-0 to win a tuneup tournament in Adelaide before the big event, followed by six consecutive wins here.

Sabalenka began the 2022 season by losing her opener in her first two events, getting to the fourth round in Melbourne, and leaving the country 3-3.

She didn’t get her 10th victory until the quarterfinals of the Stuttgart indoor clay event in late April.

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Her victory over unseeded Magda Linette in Thursday’s semifinal had some shaky moments early. But then she played an overpoweing first-set tiebreak and rolled from there.

The key was her serve: it was solid through the first four matches. Then it got a bit dodgy in her quarterfinal against Donna Vekic. But against Linette, she had six aces and just two double faults.

Most notably – and FYI to Rybakina – Sabalenka won 64 percent of her second-serve points.

Rybakina vs Sabalenka Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 Wimbledon (R16) Grass 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 Sabalenka
2021 Abu Dhabi (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 Sabalenka
2019 Wuhan (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 1-6, 6-1 Sabalenka

Sabalenka will take great encouragement from the fact that she has beaten Rybakina all three times they have played.

But they have not been cakewalks – far from it. And the scores have been rather similar every time.

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Sabalenka will have to take great care, if she does win the first set, not to let down and let Rybakina back in it.

Rybakina vs Sabalenka Prediction

Rybakina hasn’t faced anything close to the quality of serving Sabalenka is expected to produce on Saturday night in Melbourne – on both first and second serves –through her first six matches.

Sabalenka got a bit of a taste from the big-serving Donna Vekic in the quarterfinals.

This one ultimately will come down to who returns more aggressively. And given Saba Lenka’s second serve is far superior to Rybakina’s rather pedestrian second delivery, we’re giving her the edge there.

Sabalenka is the “rookie”. But she has been playing like a champion and displaying a new, zen version of herself in Melbourne.

Rybakina vs Azarenka Pick: Sabalenka in Three Sets (+340)

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