Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev Odds & Prediction – ATP Finals Semifinals
- No. 1 Novak Djokovic vs No. 3 Alexander Zverev was the expected ATP Finals semi, and both came through
- Djokovic has dominated their rivalry 7-3 ,since they first met in 2017.
- Read on to see if Zverev has a chance for the upset, analysis, and predictions
After going undefeated in the group stages, Novak Djokovic remains the strong favorite to take it all.
Semifinals opponent Alexander Zverev (Saturday, 3:00 pm ET) hasn’t beaten Djokovic often; he’s 3-7 against him in his career.
But when he has, it’s been on some pretty major occasions.
Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | -3.0 (-115) | -240 | O 22.5 (-120) |
| [3] Alexander Zverev (GER) | +3.0 (-120) | +190 | U 22.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Nov. 19 at DraftKings
Zverev Looking to End Season with Title
The fact that Zverev won gold in Tokyo means that even if he isn’t able to come away with a second ATP Tour Finals crown, he still may consider this season his best ever.
In addition to the Olympic hardware he has won five tournaments. He’ll finish ranked No. 3 regardless of how the rest of the week shakes out.
But he was No. 3 four years ago, at age 20. That last step has understandably proven the toughest.
Alexander #Zverev: "I can’t wait to face Djokovic: we always face each other in the most important tournaments and every time I have fun. We always give life to great battles and this time I hope to win"#NittoATPFinals pic.twitter.com/98L6IbBNFS
— Mario Boccardi (@marioboc17) November 18, 2021
If Zverev wants to win the event, he must do what he’s not been able to do this year (other than that golden win at the Olympics): beat Djokovic, and then potentially beat No. 2 Daniil Medvedev.
Beyond the match in Tokyo, he’s 0-3 against Djokovic and 0-2 against Medvedev in 2021.
Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev Head-to-Head
| 34 (May 22, 1987) | Age | 24 (April 20, 1997) |
| Belgrade, Serbia | Birthplace | Hamburg, Germany |
| 6-2 | Height | 6-6 |
| 86 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 18 |
| 20 | Career Grand Slam Singles Titles | 0 |
| No. 1 (July 4, 2011) | Career High Ranking | No. 3 (Nov. 6, 2017) |
| No. 1 | Current Ranking | No. 3 |
| $153,520,718 | Career Prize Money | $27,585,875 |
| 51-6 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 57-15 |
| 7 | Career Head to Head | 3 |
Little Extra Energy Expended by Djokovic
Djokovic hasn’t lost a set in his victories over No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev, No. 8 Casper Ruud and second alternate Cameron Norrie in the group stages.
But he still had to play a match Friday afternoon, a meaningless contest against Norrie.
It was not by any definition a demanding effort; Djokovic won 6-2, 6-1 in 66 minutes.
Unpassable 💪
Top seed @DjokerNole overcomes Norrie 6-2 6-1 and heads with momentum into the Turin semi-finals!#NittoATPFinals pic.twitter.com/Ok8gmzI7JO
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 19, 2021
The Serb was brutally efficient.
Still, the alternating days for group play mean Djokovic gets less than 24 hours’ recovery time before he must play again.
Zverev’s final round-robin match came during Thursday afternoon day session. So he gets nearly 2 1/2 days in between.
And Djokovic also spots him 10 years.
Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | US Open (SF) | Outoor Hard | 4-6, 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 | Djokovic |
| 2021 | Tokyo Olympics (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 1-6, 6-3, 6-1 | Zverev |
| 2021 | Australian Open (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-7 (6), 6-2, 6-4, 7-6 (6) | Djokovic |
| 2021 | ATP Cup (RR) | Outdoor Hard | 6-7 (3), 6-2, 7-5 | Djokovic |
| 2020 | ATP FInals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 7-6 (4) | Djokovic |
| 2019 | French Open (QF) | Outdoor Clay | 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 | Djokovic |
| 2018 | ATP FInals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 6-1 | Djokovic |
| 2018 | ATP FInals (F) | Indoor Hard | 6-4, 6-3 | Zverev |
| 2018 | Masters Shanghai (SF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-1 | Djokovic |
| 2017 | Masters Rome (F) | Outdoor Clay | 6-4, 6-3 | Zverev |
US Open Semifinal Rematch
Zverev took Djokovic to a fifth set for the first time in a Grand Slam tournament, last September in the US Open semifinals.
It was the closest he’s come to beating him at a major.
There’s clearly both a mental struggle – and a matchup struggle – for Zverev.
But he’s had a couple of great moments to draw on. The semifinal match in Tokyo, where Djokovic was definitely vulnerable. And the 2018 Tour Finals where, after being trounced by Djokovic in the round-robin, the German came back in the final and beat him 6-4, 6-3.
Quick Court Helps Djokovic More than Zverev
Zverev’s strengths stand out regardless of court speed. Even on slow clay, a 135-mph serve is effective.
But on Saturday, he’ll face the finest returner in the world. It’s a matchup that consistently neutralizes his best weapon.
The quick court in Torino actually is a net plus for Djokovic. It gives his serve more pop. It allows him to hit more winners. And it encourages him to come to the net more.
And, most of all, his defence is so superb that he’s effective even on the quicker court.
Given he’s not blazing new historical career milestones, Djokovic’s nerves and emotions are unlikely to come into play as they did on those occasions. He’s won the ATP Tour Finals four times, although not since 2015. And it’s not even the final.
As ever, he’ll prove to be too much for Zverev.
Best Bet: Djokovic in Two Sets (+100)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
