Novak Djokovic vs Andrey Rublev Odds & Prediction – ATP Finals Round Robin
- Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev meet in group play Wednesday (8:00 am ET) at the ATP Finals in Torino
- Surprisingly, the two will square off for the first time ever; both are 1-0 so far this week
- Read on for analysis, a breakdown of the matchup and predictions for the match
With the withdrawal of Matteo Berrettini from the Red Group because of an abdominal injury, Daniil Medvedev has already qualified as the winner of the group after his victory over Alexander Zverev Tuesday.
That means the Green Group players are vying to win that group – so as not to have to face Medvedev in the semifinals by finishing second.
Novak Djokovic looks in good shape to do this. But to secure that, he’ll have to do a rare thing – face a top player that he has never played before in Andrey Rublev.
Novak Djokovic vs Andrey Rublev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) | -4.5 (+100) | -475 | O 21.5 (-120) |
| [5] Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +4.5 (-145) | +320 | U 21.5 (-120) |
Odds as of Nov. 16 at DraftKings
Scouting a Top-5 Player
It was understandable that Djokovic had only played his first ATP Tour Finals opponent, Casper Ruud, once before.
Ruud is just 22, and he is just now getting to the top tier of the game. Even in 2021, the Norwegian spent a lot of time playing the kind of lower-level 250 events on clay that Djokovic hasn’t seen in years.
If the first set was tight – helped by a break after Djokovic had an unusual stumble on break point – the second was routine as the Serb advanced in straight sets.
WOW 😯 @DjokerNole #NittoATPFinals pic.twitter.com/nWvegfPQIy
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 15, 2021
Rublev, who has superior skills – especially on an indoor hard court – is next level.
He’s a far more dangerous foe. And that’s even more true on a court that appears very quick and makes Rublev’s howitzer forehand even more dangerous. Djokovic will look to matchup his own supreme backhand to Rublev’s less consistent one.
That said, the court helps Djokovic as well. His serve was nearly untouchable Monday. He lost just one of 21 first-serve points in the first set and just four of 39 points for the match.
Novak Djokovic vs Andrey Rublev Head-to-Head
| 34 (May 22, 1987) | Age | 24 (Oct. 20, 1997) |
| Belgrade, Serbia | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
| 6-2 | Height | 6-2 |
| 86 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 8 |
| 20 | Career Grand Slam Singles Titles | 0 |
| No. 1 (July 4, 2011) | Career High Ranking | No. 5 (Sept. 13, 2021) |
| No. 1 | Current Ranking | No. 5 |
| $153,520,718 | Career Prize Money | $9,651,504 |
| 49-6 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 54-15 |
| 0 | Career Head to Head | 0 |
Rublev Also Untouchable on Serve
Rublev had similar stats in his win over Stefano Tsitsipas. He won 37-of-41 points on first serve, had nine aces and never faced a break point.
His area of concern will be to better protect his second serve. The Russian won just 6-of-19 points against the Greek star (32 percent). And Tsitsipas doesn’t make you pay the price for a weaker second delivery nearly as effectively as the world No. 1.
Djokovic won a somewhat average 43 percent of his own second serves against Ruud. But it was a relative side issue because of his 74 percent first-serve percentage.
It will be fascinating to see if Djokovic can duplicate that kind of serving performance Wednesday against a more dangerous adversary. He’ll have to be pretty judicious with his use of the swinging serve out wide on the deuce side, which goes right to Rublev’s strength. But he … knows how to do this.
Can Djokovic’s Serve Come up Big, Again?
Something is going to have to give on serve. And we suspect Djokovic’s return skills will bring that onto his side of the ledger.
"Normally, in the morning I set many alarms so I can sleep longer" 💤
A *very* relatable pre-match story from @AndreyRublev97 pic.twitter.com/9LjYjfRJxo
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) November 16, 2021
Being a day match, Rublev won’t be as discombobulated as he was before the match against Tsitsipas.
Rublev Might Swing Freely
And regardless of the outcome, the Russian is going to like his chances of making the weekend as his third and final round-robin opponent will be Ruud.
He’s 4-0 against the Norwegian. Notably, three of those wins have come on clay, which is Ruud territory. So he might be looser than might normally be the case, facing the world No. 1 and 20-time Grand Slam champion for the first time.
But there’s one thing Djokovic and his fellow legends always seem to take on as a special challenge: coming up against one of the young and rising stars for the first time and putting them in their place.
Best Bet: Djokovic and -4.5 Games (+105)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
