Odds Against an Unseeded Finalist in Either Men’s or Women’s US Open
- The United States Open begins Monday in New York
- The U.S. Open is the first tennis major to be played since the Australian Open concluded in early February
- Should you bet on or against an unseeded player reaching the final – read below for our prediction
Twelve times during the Open Era an unseeded player has won a major title. With the United States Open beginning on Monday, odds are out, and the temptation is real based on the price to take a shot with the unheralded. However, our instincts say to go with the established names. So what are the actual chances that someone outside the top 32 in either the men’s or women’s draw reaches the final?
Let’s look at the odds, discuss what they mean, take a closer look at some of the players, and see if we can win some cash.
Unseeded Players Reaching U.S. Open Final Odds
| Will an unseeded woman reach the U.S. Open Final? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +162 |
| No | -265 |
| Will an unseeded man reach the U.S. Open Final? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +333 |
| No | -500 |
All odds taken August 28
At first glance it seems crazy that these odds indicate there is a 38% chance of someone outside the top 32 reaching the women’s final, but it warrants a closer look, particularly since some top players have opted against traveling to the United States to participate.
Top Seeds In The Women’s Draw
If you can name the top five seeds on the ladies side, without looking it up, you are a tennis junkie.
Obviously Serena Williams is the biggest name. She is seeded third, but doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence at this stage in her career. She played poorly in her warm-up tournament, is 38 years old, and hasn’t won a major since the Australian Open in 2017.
Top seed Karolína Plíšková has reached one career major final and didn’t win.
Australian Open champ Sofia Kenin is number two. Her US Open record is 6-5 and she has yet to make it past the third round.
Two-time major champ Naomi Osaka is seeded fourth. Her last major final came at the 2019 Australian Open.
The fifth seed is defending champ Aryna Sabalenka. Do you honestly remember her beating Elise Mertens in last year’s final? While she has played very well, Sabalenka is hardly a household name.
When you consider those are the top seeds, everyone else in theory is even more vulnerable. Does the field suddenly seem attractive?
Chalk On Men’s Side Much Stronger
In large part this comes down to Novak Djokovic. Though he is no lock to be in the finals, he is a warranted prohibitive favorite. In seven of the last 10 years, he has been in the U.S. Open finals, and one year he didn’t play. If you think his chances of being in the final are strong, betting on the unseeded players is really asking what their chances of coming out of the bottom of the draw look like.
The bottom half features second-seed Dominic Thiem, number three Daniil Medvedev, and Matteo Berrettini, who is seeded sixth. Thiem was in the Australian Open final in February. Medvedev’s only major final came last year in New York. Berrettini’s best major result came when he exited in the semis last year at the U.S. Open.
How Unseeded Players Reach Major Tennis Finals
There are really two blueprints to take when backing players that are unseeded. There are up-and-comers that nobody is really ready for yet, and those who have missed a lot of action and are on the comeback trail.
Mats Wilander won the French Open at 17 years old in 1982, and Boris Becker claimed Wimbledon at 17 in 1985. Both were exciting youngsters, but neither considered contenders yet.
On the flip side, when Andre Agassi won the U.S. Open in 1994, he was coming off a stretch where he didn’t compete at the Australian Open, and was bad in both the French Open and Wimbledon. Serena won the ’97 Australian Open after missing a ton of time with injuries and being ranked 81st in the world. In 2009 Kim Clijsters won the U.S. Open after having retired to have her first child.
Any Unseeded Players Worth Considering?
There are always going to be young players, the question is are any of them ready to emerge now? Coco Gauff is still just 16 years old, and unseeded after reaching the Australian Open Quarterfinals.
As for veterans, Victoria Azarenka is a two-time major winner and twice reached the finals at the U.S. Open but has hit hard times. Clijsters and Venus Williams are in the field and unseeded too.
On the men’s side, looking particularly closely at the bottom of the draw, young American Frances Tiafoe has some upside, as do veterans Andy Murray, Richard Gasquet, and Sam Querrey.
What About COVID-19?
Unknowns usually help underdogs. If the virus knocks players out, chaos could ensue. If you are betting on unseeded players, the more unusual that happens, the better. That said, it could just as easily take out the hot shot up-and-comer as it does the established seeded player.
The Bet
If you think Djokovic towers over the men’s field, then there is really just one side of the draw to pull an upset from. While the price is intriguing, the chances are not high.
Conversely, there are no women that you go into the tournament with incredible confidence in. That means two spots in the finals are open, and with parity comes opportunity.
We’re saying no unseeded men reach the final, and taking the odds on an unseeded woman getting there.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
