Tour de France Odds, Picks, and Best Bets for Stage 5 – Sep. 2nd
- Stage 5 of the TDF (Wednesday, September 2) should favor sprinters
- While Wednesday will bring two category 4 climbs, the finish is on an uphill false flat
- Where can we find betting value on choosing a stage 5 winner?
Through four stages of the Tour de France, two have been won by sprinters: Alexander Kristoff (Stage 1) and Caleb Ewan (Stage 3). General Classification contenders have captured the other two legs: Julian Alaphilippe (Stage 2), and most recently race-favorite Primoz Roglic (Stage 4). Though not certain, sprinters should have the advantage in Stage 5. Oddsmakers certainly think so, setting Ewan as the short +200 favorite.
2020 Tour de France Stage 5 Odds
| Rider | Bet365 Odds to win Stage 5 |
|---|---|
| Caleb Ewan | +200 |
| Sam Bennett | +300 |
| Giacomo Nizzolo | +700 |
| Cees Bol | +800 |
| Wout Van Aert | +1100 |
| Peter Sagan | +1400 |
| Mads Pedersen | +1600 |
| Elia Viviani | +2200 |
| Alexander Kristoff | +2200 |
| Matteo Trentin | +3300 |
Odds as of Sep. 1st.
When riders take the 183 kilometre trek from Gap to Privas, they will have two category four climbs to negotiate late in the route, with the finish line slightly uphill. Overall, the stage is mostly flat but there could be attacks at the Côte de Saint Vincent Barrès, which is only 16 km from the finish, and that could be a problem for sprinters. A possible headwind is another obstacle that may be a factor.
After impressively besting rivals Stage 4, Roglic has solidified his status as the favorite. He is currently in third place, 11 seconds behind Alaphilippe. Adam Yates is four seconds back in second place.
The Favorite
With Mark Cavendish not in the event for a second straight year, Caleb Ewan, known as the Pocket Rocket, might be the best pure speedster in the field. The 26-year-old Aussie won three stages last year, and already has one this year.
If this were a straight sprint finish, Ewan would deserve to be the chalk and it may end up that way. That said, the uphill nature of the ending, with the climbs near the finish, might mean someone with a little grit and extra power could be in a strong position.
Contenders
If it is a pure sprint, Sam Bennett feels like the yin to Ewan’s yang. Bennett could easily have won Stage 3 and felt like he set Ewan up.
Bennett has not ridden in the Tour de France in several years, but won two stages of last year’s Vuelta a Espana, and three stages in the 2018 Giro d’Italia.
If you are looking for a better price, this stage might be perfect for Peter Sagan. At the age of 30, he has won 12 individual stages since the start of the 2012 tour.
Sagan may no longer have the pure speed to win a traditional sprint, but Wednesday’s course will require strategy, strength, and guile. That has his name written all over it.
Longshot
Based on how he has raced thus far, and yes the tour has barely even started, Sagan hasn’t looked great. Someone with a similar style but less name recognition is Matteo Trentin.
He won a stage last year not unlike this one, his third career victory in the Tour de France. This is the final year for his team, CCC, and they have said they are identifying and focusing on winning individual stages. This is exactly the type of stage that profiles as the type they could go after, and the price is certainly right.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
