Opening 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds – Dak Prescott Heavily Favored
- Dak Prescott is a +175 favorite to win next season’s NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award
- Prescott missed the Cowboys’ final 11 games in 2020 due to a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle
- Read below for opening odds analysis for the top contenders
Dak Prescott was well on his way to the best statistical year of his career in 2020, before an ankle injury cut his season short. Dallas’ star QB suffered a compound fracture and dislocation to his right ankle in Week 5 against the rival New York Giants, and was forced to watch the Cowboys miss the playoffs for the second consecutive season from the sidelines.
Fast forward seven months, and Prescott, in his own words, is well ahead of schedule in his rehab. He says he could play today if he had to, and has been installed as the favorite to win the 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award.
2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award
Team | Odds at DraftKings |
---|---|
Dak Prescott | +175 |
Nick Bosa | +400 |
Christian McCaffrey | +500 |
Saquon Barkley | +600 |
Joe Burrow | +700 |
Joe Mixon | +1000 |
Carson Wentz | +1000 |
Von Miller | +1400 |
Sam Darnold | +1600 |
Derwin James | +2000 |
Odell Beckham Jr. | +2500 |
Danielle Hunter | +3300 |
Julio Jones | +3300 |
Jameis Winston | +3300 |
Jimmy Garoppolo | +5000 |
Damien Williams | +6600 |
Dont’a Hightower | +10000 |
CJ Mosley | +10000 |
Tim Tebow | +10000 |
Kyle Long | +15000 |
Odds as of May 10th.
Promo: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets + NBA No Sweat SGP | bet now | |
Promo: Bet $5 Get $300 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins | bet now | |
Promo: Up To $1,500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back | bet now |
Prescott will be looking to become the fourth straight QB to win the award. Last year’s winner Alex Smith, won in a landslide earning 49 of 50 first place votes, but wasn’t even listed as a contender when the 2020 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds came out.
Prescott Primed For Big Year
Dallas only won two of Prescott’s five starts in 2020, but the Cowboys record doesn’t tell the whole story. Their defense allowed 36 points per game in those outings, which overshadowed Prescott’s gaudy numbers.
Dak Prescott on his health: “I’m close. I can go play in a game right now and be very, very successful. So there is no doubt when I need to be successful, when I need to do the things that it takes to be on the field, I’ll do exactly that and the time will be right.” pic.twitter.com/Xh1f2bN6gE
— Calvin Watkins (@calvinwatkins) May 4, 2021
Prescott put up 1,856 passing yards and 9 TD in less than five full games, while also chipping in three rushing TD. The Cowboys’ three-receiver set of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup is one of the best in football, while the offensive line should once again be one of the top groups in the league.
Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones said on @1053thefan he believes LT Tyron Smith (neck), RT La’el Collins (hip) and RG Zack Martin (calf) will be “as good as we’ve seen them in a long time. They’re healthy. They’re over their injuries.”
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) April 23, 2021
Also working in his favor, is the fact that Mike McCarthy is one of the most pass happy coaches in the league. Dallas threw the ball on 61.37% of its offensive plays last season, while Green Bay threw on 67.54% of its plays in McCarthy’s final season with the Packers. A passing play percentage somewhere in the middle is safe to project for Prescott in 2021, which means there is going to be plenty of opportunity to rack up video game type numbers.
✅450 Pass Yards
✅4 Total Touchdowns
✅20-point comeback win
✅NFC Offensive Player of the Week@dak Prescott 🙌(via @dallascowboys) pic.twitter.com/BBKXBN9BPu
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 23, 2020
Given the pedigrees of some of the other contenders for this award, Prescott is going to need a monster season to win it, but that’s exactly what is expected of the 27-year-old in 2021. He recently signed a 6-year, $240 million deal with the Cowboys, and is a top-seven contender to win the Regular Season MVP.
His playing situation, along with his elite receiving corps, makes him a very worthy favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year, but the price tag is not appealing at all. Instead of betting him at +175, take a shot at his MVP odds at +1600. If he can replicate the success he had early last season for an entire 17 games, he’ll likely be one of the favorites down the stretch.
Fade the Running Backs
The list of running backs expected to contend for this award is impressive, as Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Joe Mixon are all among the top-six favorites in the 2021 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds. But, before you go racing to your online sportsbook to bet on your favorite bell cow back, consider this: no running back has won Comeback Player of the Year since Garrison Hearst in 2001.
Christian McCaffrey looking healthy again… love to see it 😈 (via @CMC_22) pic.twitter.com/CBGsZ9eVml
— Overtime (@overtime) March 3, 2021
The running back position is one of the most dangerous to play in all of football, and injuries are inevitable. McCaffrey played only three games in 2020 due to ankle, shoulder and quad injuries, while Mixon missed the final 10 games with a foot problem. Barkley meanwhile, has sat out 17 games over the past two seasons with ankle and knee injuries.
It’s nearly impossible for starting running backs, especially those who handle a three-down role, to stay healthy all year, and that opportunity cost is not factored into their Comeback Player of the Year odds. Instead of betting on one of those backs to not only stay healthy all year, but also put up award winning numbers, stick with quarterbacks.
Believe In Burrow
One QB in particular to target is former number one pick Joe Burrow. Cincy’s franchise signal caller thrived in his rookie season before a torn ACL derailed his year. He ranked fourth among qualified passers in expected completion percentage on throws under 4 seconds, and now has his old LSU running mate Ja’Marr Chase to help improve his deep passing game.
Joe Burrow targeting Ja'Marr Chase at LSU:
🚀 95.4 Passing Grade
🚀 142.3 Passer Rating
🚀 16 Deep TDs
🚀 85 First Down CompletionsDynamic Duo in Cincy 🐅 pic.twitter.com/Oxz9gwh6Zy
— PFF College (@PFF_College) May 5, 2021
The duo were unstoppable during the Tigers’ National Title run in 2019, and Chase’s addition gives Burrow one of the better three-receiver sets in the league, along with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.
Burrow is no stranger to racking up hardware, with an aforementioned National Championship and Heisman Trophy under his belt. He has a smart, forward thinking head coach in Zac Taylor to help accelerate his development, and we should see a significant leap from year one to year two. I’m betting that leap will be enough earn him his first major award at the NFL level.
Pick: Joe Burrow (+700)