First Rounder Leader Odds and Picks at 2020 Tour Championship

• The Tour Championship tees off Friday, September 4th from East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta
• FedEx Cup leader Dustin Johnson is the favorite to grab the first round lead over Jon Rahm
• See the best bets and odds to grab the first round lead in the article below 

Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson authored up an incredible duel at the BMW Championship last Sunday – one that saw DJ drain a long birdie putt on the 72nd hole to force a playoff, only to have Rahm nail an even longer putt to win on the first playoff hole in dramatic fashion.

Despite coming away empty handed, Johnson is the FedEx Cup leader heading into East Lake for the Tour Championship, and he begins two strokes up on Rahm in the first round.

In this article, we’ll explore which players have the best chance of being the leader after day one, which to nobody’s surprise is expected to be the top two players in the world in Johnson and Rahm.

2020 Tour Championship First Round Leader Odds

Odds taken September 1st

The forecast is expected to be hot in Atlanta with temperatures nearing 100 degrees with the risk of a thunderstorm throughout the day. The wind won’t be too much of a factor with 10 MPH the expected high.

Before immediately seeing those insanely juicy odds and betting on the likes of Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy, keep in mind that they’ll be starting the day well behind Dustin Johnson as part of the revamped FedEx Cup format.

2020 Tour Championship Starting Positions

Justin Thomas Presents Solid Value

In his four career trips to East Lake, Justin Thomas has put together top-10’s in all four instances, including a runner-up finish in 2017 that clinched his first FedEx Cup.

He begins this iteration three back of DJ and sports enticing odds to grab the first round lead.

Never change @JustinThomas34. 😂pic.twitter.com/Qv93uS6SCh

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) August 29, 2020

In 16 rounds on this track, Thomas has scored in the 60’s eleven times, with a 1-over, 71 being his worst result. He’s a respectable 33rd in first round scoring this season and has three wins on the season.

In the last three years on this track, JT has gained 17.5 combined shots on the field in strokes gained tee-to-green.

With Johnson and Rahm providing next to no value on a FRL wager, Thomas offers decent odds to wrestle the early lead away from them.

Pick: Justin Thomas (+700)

Webb Simpson One to Keep an Eye on

Having taken last week off to rest following a run of tournaments, Webb Simpson is fresh and focused on winning his first career FedEx Cup. That break might have done the world of good for him to recharge after T-6 and T-3 showings in his previous two events.

Webb Simpson leads the PGA Tour in scoring average entering this week despite ranking T-108th in driving distance.

Over the last 30 years, only 1 player has led the Tour in scoring with a lower distance rank: Luke Donald in 2011 (147th).

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) August 31, 2020

Starting four shots off the lead, Webb will lean on past experience here, where he’s posted three top-five finishes. In five of his last seven events, he’s gained at least six shots on the field and in his last 50 overall rounds, nobody has gained more shots on tour.

He’s also a solid T-20th in first round scoring this season, making him a good one to look at should Johnson and Rahm get off to slow start Friday.

Pick: Webb Simpson (+1800)

Collin Morikawa With Boom Potential

Despite starting five strokes off the pace, recent PGA Champion Collin Morikawa offers very interesting odds to grab the first day lead. While he’s making his Tour Championship debut, don’t underestimate his ability for the flair for the dramatic which he displayed at the PGA.

If Collin Morikawa indeed closes this out, you're going to see this shot on replay for years to come: pic.twitter.com/du3UjUYujk

— Golf Central (@GolfCentral) August 10, 2020

In his last nine tournaments, Morikawa has been totally hit or miss, winning twice and losing in a playoff. The other six tournaments have resulted in middling finishes.

With him being so far back, his +4000 odds could net a solid windfall if he happens to have one of his “on” weeks at East Lake, where he’s posted eight rounds of 65 or better this season.

Pick: Collin Morikawa (+4000)

Bryson DeChambeau Would Net Massive Payday

Admittedly this is quite a bit of a long shot, but Bryson DeChambeau at these odds has to at least be on your radar. The ‘Mad Scientist’ is second in first round scoring on the season and he’ll need to summon that to be FRL, given that he’s six strokes back.

It looks like @b_dechambeau is ready for this week after nearly reaching the green on this tee shot. 😳pic.twitter.com/qyUZh4TC5U

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) August 26, 2020

In 16 events this season, DeChambeau has scored in the 60’s on day one in eleven instances, including the PGA Championship which resulted in his best finish in a major (T-4th).

Though he hasn’t posted a score in the 60’s in his last six overall rounds, the +8000 odds are simply too juicy to pass up for a guy who’s first in SG: off-the-tee and fifth in putting.

Pick: Bryson DeChambeau (+8000)