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2020 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Matchup Odds and Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Mar 4, 2021 · 2:27 PM PST

Matthew Wolff
Matthew Wolff could have a massive week at the CJ Cup in Vegas. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)
  • The 2020-21 PGA Tour season continues Thursday (Oct. 8) at TPC Summerlin, in Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Matthew Wolff ranks third in birdie or better percentage in this field over the last six months
  • Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite matchup picks

Vegas, baby. The PGA Tour lands in Sin City on Thursday, October 8th, for the first of two straight tournaments in the city that never sleeps.

This week’s event, the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, is contested at TPC Summerlin, which is traditionally one of the easiest courses on the circuit. The winning score has been -20 or lower in nine of the past 11 years, so we’re going to want to target elite birdie makers first and foremost.

One of the players that immediately comes to mind is Matthew Wolff, who just happens to be red-hot right now. Wolff finished top-four in each of the year’s first two Majors, and is the target of our first matchup bet against Scottie Scheffler.

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Fear the Wolff Man

Both these players have been statistical darlings over the past few months, but Wolff is a cut above nearly everyone else in the field at the moment. He ranks first in ball striking, sixth in strokes gained tee-to-green and third in birdie or better percentage since the June restart.

Matthew Wolff vs Scottie Scheffler Matchup Odds

Golfer Odds
Matthew Wolff -118
Scottie Scheffler -112

All Odds Taken Oct. 6th at DraftKings.

Not surprisingly, the results have followed as he’s finished T-22 or better in six of his past nine starts, holding the 54-hole lead twice during that stretch.

Both Wolff and Scheffler are elite off-the-tee, but what separates them is their iron play and putting. Wolff ranks 16th in the field in strokes gained approach and 31st in putting, while Scheffler checks in at number 29 and 74 in those two categories. Scheffler was the pre-tournament favorite last week at the Sanderson Farms, but disappointed with a 37th place finish, in large part due to losing 3.4 strokes on approach.

Pick: Matthew Wolff (-118)

Davis Will Deliver Again

We were all over Cameron Davis last week as a 46-1 sleeper, and he held the 54-hole lead before falling back to 6th on Sunday. Nevertheless, his prolific scoring is something we’re going to want to ride again this week against veteran Zach Johnson.

Zach Johnson vs Cameron Davis Matchup Odds

Golfer Odds
Zach Johnson -118
Cameron Davis -112

These two players are polar opposites of one another. Davis racks up birdies in bunches, while Johnson is a steady, cautious golfer, who takes only what the course gives him.  That type of strategy works very well at difficult tracks, but not at a birdie fest like TPC Summerlin.

Davis poured in 20 birdies and an eagle at the Sanderson Farms, to finish four shots clear of Johnson. The biggest advantage the Australian has is length, as he outdrove Johnson by an average of 30 yards in the final round.

All three Par 5’s this week should be reachable in two for long hitters like Davis, while six Par 4’s under 450 yards will give him plenty of opportunity to showcase his wedge game. As noted last week, Davis is on the Tour’s best from inside 125 yards.

Pick: Cameron Davis (-112)

The Doctor is In

Will Zalatoris came crashing down to earth last week, missing the cut at the Sanderson Farms as one of the top-four pre-tournament favorites. This week, he’s matched up against Doc Redman, who’s posted two top-three finishes in his last four events.

Will Zalatoris vs Doc Redman Matchup Odds

Golfer Odds
Will Zalatoris -118
Doc Redman -112

Redman’s ball striking has been off the charts in back-to-back starts, as he’s gained a combined 9.8 strokes on approach and another 5.1 off-the-tee.

He ranks significantly higher than Zalatoris in birdie or better percentage (13th vs 60th), wedge play proximity (6th vs 64th), and strokes gained approach (2nd vs 18th) in this field.

Zalatoris meanwhile, hit just 69.44% of his greens in regulation last week, and lost strokes on and around the green. He was the flavor du jour prior to the Sanderson Farms, after finishing 6th and the U.S. Open and 8th at Corales, but let’s not forget he doesn’t exactly have a sparkling track record on Tour. In 11 career PGA Tour starts, he’s made the weekend just twice.

Pick: Doc Redman (-112)

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