2021 AT&T Byron Nelson Sleepers and Longshot Picks
- The AT&T Byron Nelson tees off Thursday (May 13th) at TPC Craig Ranch, in McKinney, TX
- Will Zalatoris ranks first in this field in strokes gained approach, and third in strokes gained tee-2-green over his past 50 rounds
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays
We’ve reached the penultimate event before the PGA Championship, as golfers head to TPC Craig Ranch, in McKinney, Texas this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson. This will mark the first PGA Tour event ever held at the course, however TPC Craig Ranch did host the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2008 and 2012.
A handful of players who played in those tournaments will be in the field this week, while one former golfer turned broadcaster who played here in 2008, said on Sunday the guys are going to “rip it up”. That means we’re in for a birdie party, which isn’t surprising since all of the Par-5’s are reachable in two, while one and potentially even two of the Par-4’s will be driveable.
As a result, we need to target players who can rack up birdies in bunches, and Will Zalatoris certainly fits that bill.
2021 AT&T Byron Nelson Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win | Top-10 Odds | Top-20 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zalatoris | +2800 | +250 | +110 |
| Marc Leishman | +3500 | +300 | +138 |
| Thomas Pieters | +7500 | +550 | +175 |
| Doug Ghim | +10000 | +1100 | +275 |
Odds as of May 10th at DraftKings and Bet365.
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Ignore Last Week’s Missed Cut
Sure Zalatoris MC’d last week, but he wasn’t the only prominent name to do so. Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau to name a few, all failed to make the weekend at a very difficult Quail Hollow club. Now, the Texan is back in his home state, and his stats have been off the charts since he started playing regularly on Tour.
3 straight birdies to finish the round for @WillZalatoris. 🔥
He’s solo 2nd at #theMasters.
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 9, 2021
He’s finished t-10 or better in six of his last 16 events, with a runner-up finish at the Masters and a 6th place result at the U.S. Open on his resume. Over his past 50 rounds, he ranks first in this field in strokes gained approach, third in strokes gained tee-2-green, and 11th in birdie or better percentage.
Will Zalatoris Strokes Gained Ranks – Last 50 Rounds
| T2G | OTT | APP | ARG | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd | 28th | 1st | 60th | 90th |
His odds vary depending on which sportsbook you use so make sure to shop around. +2800 is the best price I’ve seen so far, but in light of the Dustin Johnson withdrawal, and the steam he’s sure to pick up, that number won’t last long.
Pick: Will Zalatoris to Win Outright (+2800)
Leishman Loves Texas
What is it about Aussies in Texas? Australians always seem to play well in the Lone Star state, and Marc Leishman is no exception. He’s finished 2nd and 13th in his past two starts at this event, and while those tournaments were held at a different Texas course, he also owns multiple top-25 finishes at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth.
Marc Leishman, absolute beauty pic.twitter.com/xuXM8bYE7w
— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) January 15, 2021
Leishman is fresh off a victory at the Zurich Classic team event with countryman Cam Smith, and prior to that he finished 5th at the Masters. He ranks 11th in this field in strokes gained approach over his past 24 rounds, 11th in birdie or better percentage, and fourth in proximity from beyond 200 yards, one of the key iron ranges for this week.
Pick: Marc Leishman to Win Outright (+3500)
Pieters Offers Serious Potential
Next up, is Thomas Pieters, who has been excellent on the PGA Tour in his only three starts over the last eight months. He’s racked up results of 13th, 15th and 23rd on this side of the pond, while posting finishes of 13th and 10th in his past two Euro Tour starts.
There are certain shots that show perfectly how amazingly talented pro golfers are. 156 yds, into wind, @Thomas_Pieters chipped a 5 iron (I think) to 12ft
These are the shots that show the miles and miles, and miles (and miles) between these guys and the best player at your club pic.twitter.com/dGKyqgKQ5c
— Monday Q Info (@acaseofthegolf1) March 27, 2021
Pieters ranks 17th in this field over the past 24 rounds in strokes gained tee-2-green, 21st in strokes gained approach, and 28th in birdie or better percentage.
Thomas Pieters Top-10 Finish (+550)
Ghim’s T2G Game Is Gold
Last but not least, is former University of Texas Longhorn Doug Ghim. The 25-year-old is a statistical darling, and if he can ever figure out the flat stick, top tier finishes are going to be a common occurrence.
Best approach of the day at 14.@DougGhim moves into the co-lead.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/SSgyUHVYBu
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 13, 2021
Ghim ranks third in the field over the past 24 rounds in strokes gained approach, fourth in strokes gained tee-2-green, and first in proximity between 175-200 yards, another key iron range this week. He’s gained at least 5 strokes with his ball striking in each of his past three starts, but has been torpedoed by his putter. The former number one ranked amateur has lost a combined 12.8 strokes on the greens over that same time frame, but if he can hover around neutral with his putter this week, look out.
Pick: Doug Ghim Top-20 Finish (+275)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
