2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Sleepers, Longshot and Upset Picks
- The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play tees off Wednesday (March 24th) at the Austin Country Club, in Austin, Texas
- Jason Day won this event in 2016, and is fresh off gaining 11.2 strokes tee-to-green at the Players Championship
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays
The NCAA Tournament isn’t the only bracket based competition taking place this week. 64 of the top golfers in the world will tee it up at the Austin Country Club, in Austin, Texas on Wednesday, with a purse of over $10 million dollars up for grabs.
Golfers will be grouped into 16 pods of four players, and will play a round robin format over the first few days, with the winner of each group advancing to the round of 16. From there, it will be a single round elimination format, meaning the last man standing will wind up playing seven matches over a five day stretch.
The unique style of event offers multiple ways to bet on the action. You can wager on the outright winner of the tournament like any other week, and you can also wager on who will win each group. One player to keep your eye on this week is Jason Day, who was immaculate tee-to-green in his last tournament at the Players Championship.
2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win Tournament | Odds to Win Group |
|---|---|---|
| Jason Day | +5000 | +250 |
| Corey Conners | +5500 | +300 |
| Bubba Watson | +12500 | +400 |
Odds taken March 22nd at DraftKings.
Poor Putting Sinks Day’s Players Hopes
Day gained an absurd 11.2 strokes tee-to-green at TPC Sawgrass, which ranked second in the field behind only the winner Justin Thomas. The difference between the two that week? Thomas gained 1.6 strokes with his putter, while Day lost 7.7. For context, that was the worst putting week he’s ever posted as a professional, and the first time he’s lost more than 6 strokes on the greens since the 2010 Transitions Championship.
Leaders in SG: Pete Dye Courses over their last 24 rounds in next week's WGC-Match Play field:
1. Bryson +2.2
2. Brian Harman +2.0
3. DJ, Abe Ancer +1.9
5. Jason Day +1.8— Andy Lack (@adplacksports) March 21, 2021
The Aussie is typically one of the best putters and short game players on Tour, and has an extremely strong history at this event. He won the first year the tournament moved to Austin in 2016, and also claimed the title when it was contested at Dove Mountain back in 2014. He’s 21-14 all-time in match play competition as a professional, and has won 13 of his last 20 matches at this event.
Jason Day's short game has been unmatched this season ⛳️🏌️♂️pic.twitter.com/qIgKNxeOob
— SuperSport 🏆 (@SuperSportTV) May 28, 2020
At +5000 he’s an excellent value in the outright market, and a strong bet to win his group. He has the third shortest odds to win his pod, behind Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler, who’ve combined to play just seven rounds in match play competition as pros.
Picks: Jason Day to Win Outright (+5500), to Win Group (+250)
Conners Crushing It Tee-to-Green
Day isn’t the only underpriced tee-to-green crusher we’ll be targeting this week. Canadian Corey Conners is fresh off back-to-back top-seven finishes at the Players and the API, and has been a top-three ball striker in this field over the last 24 rounds. During that stretch, he ranks second in strokes gained total, third in strokes gained tee-to-green, third on approach and fifth off-the-tee.
Corey Conners made his third eagle of the week on No. 16 to get within one shot of the lead and put pressure on Westewood and Bryson 👀pic.twitter.com/6UaMA3Mtet
— GOLF.com (@GOLF_com) March 7, 2021
His final round 66 was tied for the low round of the day at the Players a week and a half ago, and he has a strong history in match play competition. Conners competed in the U.S. Amateur three times, reaching the final four twice and advancing to the final in 2014. A couple players he knocked out over those runs, none other than Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau.
His opening group isn’t particularly daunting, as Jordan Spieth, a career .500 golfer in match play, is pegged as the favorite.
Pick: Corey Conners to Win Group (+300)
This Is a Bubba Track
Everyone who follows golf knows there’s just certain courses that Bubba Watson plays well at. The Austin Country Club happens to be one of them. Watson won this event in 2018 and has made it out of his group in two of his last three appearances.
His form isn’t fantastic at the moment, but match play perfectly suits his game. Bubba is one the best pure scorers on Tour, but it is also known for making big numbers.
Driver. Driver. Eagle.❗@BubbaWatson wasted no time getting in the running for Shot of the Year.#TOURVault pic.twitter.com/96k5WOQBeV
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 6, 2021
A bad hole here or there isn’t going to hurt him, as he can make it up by winning the next one. He’s 21-14-4 in match play competition over his career, and as a veteran of multiple Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup teams, he has as much experience as anyone in the field in this format.
Pick: Bubba Watson to Win Group (+400)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
