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2022 Farmers Insurance Open Sleepers and Longshot Picks

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Updated Jan 25, 2022 · 8:03 AM PST

Tony Finau walks off the green
Tony Finau hands his club to his caddy on the second green during the second round of the Tournament of Champions golf event, Friday, Jan. 7, 2022, at Kapalua Plantation Course in Kapalua, Hawaii. (AP Photo/Matt York)
  • The 2022 Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines in San Diego, California tees off Wednesday, January 26th
  • Tony Finau has four finishes of T6 or better at this event in the past five years, including a runner-up result last year
  • Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets

It’s a rare Wednesday start this week on the PGA Tour, as 156 of the best golfers in the world tee it up at Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open. The field is stacked, as it usually is, and if recent history is any indication, you don’t want to waver too far down the odds board to find a winner.

Just three of the past ten champions had pre-tournament outright odds longer than +2500, while only one had a price tag north of +5500. Considering two of those winners were world no. 1 Jon Rahm and Marc Leishman, two of the 11 shortest priced players this week, it’s pretty safe to assume a big name is going to bring home the trophy.

Our sleepers and longshots card begins this week with Tony Finau, who’s track record at this event is impeccable.

2022 Farmers Insurance Open Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Tony Finau +2800 +260 +130
Brooks Koepka +3500 +350 +160
Justin Rose +5500 +450 +180
Lanto Griffin +8000 +700 +275
Francesco Molinari +8000 +800 +330

Odds as of Jan. 25th at DraftKings , FanDuel  and BetMGM.

Finau’s price varies anywhere from +2400 to +2800 in the Farmers Insurance Open odds, so make sure you shop around for the best number.

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Finau Ready to Tame Torrey

Over the past five years at this tournament, Finau has finished T6 or better four times. Last year, he finished runner-up to Patrick Reed, gaining strokes in every key metric, while breaking 70 at Torrey Pines in three of four rounds.

Torrey Pines is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour rotation, and Finau routinely plays his best golf at difficult tracks. Look no further than his victory last August at Liberty National.

He gains an average of 1.15 strokes on the field per round at difficult courses, and also seems to love playing in California. In his past five regular Tour events in the Golden State he’s finished 40th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, and 6th.

  • Pick: Tony Finau to Win Outright (+2800)

Koepka is Great Bang for Your Buck

There are reasons not to like Brooks Koepka this week. He hasn’t posted a top-10 finish since the Open Championship in July, and he’s missed the cut in each of his past two starts at this event. He’s also lost strokes tee-to-green in four straight tournaments, but Koepka’s been known to win without flashing any recent form.

Take last year in Phoenix. He’d missed three straight cuts and was foolishly priced at +5000 to win . Of course, he went on to claim victory making all of us who faded him look foolish. This week he checks in with outright odds as long as +3500, which is twice as long as his price tag to win the Masters.

Simply put, this is a bad line. Sure he might miss the cut, but there’s also a chance he shows up and laps the field. Last year’s U.S. Open was contested at Torrey Pines, and Koepka finished 4th, gaining 11.1 strokes on the field.

  • Pick: Brooks Koepka to Win Outright (+3500)
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Rose Ready to Rebound This Season

After back-to-back down years on Tour, Justin Rose looks poised to rebound in 2022. He’s one start removed from a 12th place finish, and has a great track record at Torrey Pines.

The former world no. 1 has three top-8 finishes in his past four starts at this tournament, including a victory in 2019.

Last week in the final round of the American Express, he gained 3.4 strokes with his ball striking, his most in one single round in two years.

Pick: Justin Rose Top-10 Finish (+450)

Top-20 Value Picks

  1. Lanto Griffin (+275): Finished third last week at the American Express, his third top-7 result in his past five starts. He too has a strong track record at this tournament, finishing T12 or better twice in his past three starts.
  2. Francesco Molinari (+330): Another player with a phenomenal track record in California, which he now calls home. He finished inside the top-15 in four of his five California starts last year, and began 2022 with a sixth place result last week at the American Express.
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