2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open Sleepers and Longshot Picks
- The 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open from TPC Scottsdale begins on Thursday (Feb. 10th)
- Each of the past six winners have finished inside the top-eight at this event in the year prior to their victory
- Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets
It may be Super Bowl week, but don’t kid yourself. The biggest party of the weekend is going to be taking place at TPC Scottsdale. The course will host the Waste Management Phoenix Open starting on Thursday (Feb. 10th), and as usual the scene is going to be wild.
Things really go sideways once players reach the famous 16th hole – aka the loudest hole in golf. Students from nearby universities, as well as golf fans just looking to get loose turn the coliseum style hole into a giant party. Golfers will have to deal with all sorts of shenanigans throughout the week to raise the trophy on Sunday, and experience at this track definitely comes in handy.
Each of the past six winners have finished inside the top-eight at the WM Open in the year prior to the victory, and we’ll be looking to target some of last year’s best finishers in our sleepers and longshots betting card.
2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds
| Golfer | Odds to Win | Top-10 Odds | Top-20 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +2700 | +190 | -125 |
| Bubba Watson | +4100 | +300 | +140 |
| Pat Perez | +10000 | +700 | +275 |
| Carlos Ortiz | +15000 | +1100 | +450 |
Odds as of Feb. 8th at DraftKings , FanDuel and BetMGM.
Another trend to follow is that 10 of the past 11 winners have also earned a top-7 finish in one of their last five starts leading up to the WM Phoenix Open.
Scheffler a Live Sleeper
One player who fits both of those trends is Scottie Scheffler. The 25-year-old is still searching for his first career win on Tour, but he’s been dangerously close multiple times. He finished T7 at this event last year, and is just three starts removed from a runner-up finish at the Houston Open.
Tournament record ✅
Course record ✅Have a day, Scottie Scheffler. 👏 pic.twitter.com/UZSI6xeCkm
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 12, 2021
He owns seven top-three finishes over the past two and a half years, and he’s simply too talented to not find the winner’s circle soon. Par-5 scoring and strong off the tee play are extremely important to success at TPC Scottsdale, and Scheffler excels in both areas. He ranks ninth in Par-5 scoring, and has gained at least 2 strokes on the field off the tee in 24 events since he joined the Tour full-time back in 2019.
As for his recent ball striking goes, he gained 5.7 shots on the field at the Farmers Insurance Open, piling up 19 birdies along the way. His outright price varies from +2200 to +2700 this week depending on which online sportsbook you look at it, so make sure you shop around.
- Pick: Scottie Scheffler to Win (+2700)
Bubba Loves This Track
Our next target is Bubba Watson, who falls just short of meeting both of the key trends. But that’s not to say he hasn’t had a lot of success at this event in the past. He finished T22 here last year, but was T3 in 2020, and T4 in 2019.
This will be his first start on Tour since the the FedEX Cup Playoffs in August, but he didn’t show any rust last week at the Saudi International. He finished runner-up after firing a final round 64, and if not for a miraculous Harold Varner eagle on the final hole he would have found himself in a playoff.
WHAT IS GREAT ABOUT #Golf ..
The first person to congratulate Harold Varner 111 @HV3_Golf & new @SaudiIntlGolf 🏆 was good friend @bubbawatson
Varner 111 holing a stunning 9⃣2⃣-foot 🦅putt at the last @royalgreens_ksa to capture maiden @asiantourgolf 🥇 pic.twitter.com/5y7LSdPNiI
— Golf & Science News (@TOURMISS) February 6, 2022
Year after year, Watson is one of the premier off the tee players and he also eats up Par-5’s. Over the past 100 rounds he ranks third in strokes gained off the tee, and 29th in Par-5 scoring.
Pick: Bubba Watson to Win (+4100), Top-10 (+300)
Top 20 Value Picks
- Pat Perez (+275): Enters the week on quite a roll. He’s finished 9th and 6th in his past two starts, gaining 20.3 total strokes on the field along the way. Last week at Pebble Beach he was positive in every key strokes gained metric, and one look at his social media hints that he’ll feel right at home in a raucous, party atmosphere.
- Carlos Ortiz (+450): Like Scheffler, he fits both of the key trends which also makes him worth a sprinkle in the outright market at 150-1. He finished fourth here last year, and is just two starts removed from a runner-up result at Mayakoba. He ranks top-35 in both strokes gained off the tee and Par-5 scoring over the past 100 rounds.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
