Best Longshot Bets and Sleeper Picks for The 2020 Northern Trust
- The top-125 players on the PGA Tour this season will tee it up Thursday at the Northern Trust, the first event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs
- Justin Rose has gained the eighth most strokes in the field at TPC Boston over the last 12 rounds
- Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays
The top-125 players on the PGA Tour this season will tee it up Thursday at the Northern Trust, marking the official start of the FedEx Cup playoffs.
This week’s field at TPC Boston will include Jim Herman, who shocked the world at the Wyndham Championship last week, winning the event after going off in the opening round as a +50000 longshot.
Jim Herman wins the Wyndham!
Herman entered the week with +50000 odds to win outright.
A $20 bet would have profited $10,000!💰#WyndhamChamp pic.twitter.com/uBwa6kWdaH
— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) August 16, 2020
The list of winners at this event since 2015 is a who’s who of the golf world, so while a longshot is unlikely to cash another huge ticket this week, that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found on the odds board.
The Northern Trust Odds
| Golfer | To Win Odds | Top-10 Odds | Top-20 Odds at DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Rose | +6000 | +500 | +250 |
| Kevin Kisner | +9000 | +700 | +300 |
| Russell Henley | +10000 | +750 | +335 |
Odds taken Aug. 18th.
The Bloom Isn’t off the Rose Just Yet
After a string of three straight missed cuts, Justin Rose rebounded in a big way at the PGA Championship, finishing ninth. That performance, keyed by an impressive 4.1 strokes gained on approach, prompted everybody (myself included) to back him at 22-1 to win the Wyndham Championship.
Good scoring conditions so far – Justin Rose might even be able shoot even par today
— Timothy Frank (@Tim_Frank1) August 14, 2020
Of course, the former Masters champion promptly missed the cut, but his performance wasn’t as bad as most people believe. He struck the ball terribly in Round 1, but rebounded in Round 2 to gain 1.1 strokes ball striking.
He’s done very well at TPC Boston in the past, posting results of 2nd, 10th and 16th since 2013, and has gained the eighth most strokes of anyone in the field at this course over the last 12 rounds.
Normally, Rose is priced anywhere from +2000 to +4000 so getting him at much longer odds is value that I’m not willing to pass up.
Pick: Justin Rose to Win (+6000)
Kisner is Crushing
Further down the odds board, we find Kevin Kisner, fresh off a third place performance at the Wyndham Championship. Kisner’s ball striking was immaculate last week, as was his putter, helping him rack up 23 birdies over the four days.
Kevin Kisner’s unique practice putting drill 👀 pic.twitter.com/7CVAEgMqFa
— GOLFTV (@GOLFTV) August 16, 2020
Kisner gained 5.3 strokes on approach at Sedgefield Country Club, a week after gaining 4.9 at the PGA Championship. He’s gained at least 5 strokes putting in three straight events, and is now back on Bentgrass greens at TPC Boston, which just happen to be his preferred putting surface.
Kevin Kisner Stats – Last Three Tournaments
| Event | SG: T2G | SG: OTT | SG: APP | SG: P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyndham | 7.7 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 5 |
| PGA | 2 | 0 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| WGC – St. Jude | -4.9 | -1.7 | -1.5 | 8.1 |
He finished 12th at this tournament last year, when it was played at Liberty National, and owns multiple top-25 finishes at TPC Boston over the last handful of years. His game is trending in the right direction and all signs point to him adding another top-10 finish to his resume.
Pick: Kevin Kisner Top-10 Finish (+700)
Henley is Still Red-Hot
Another ball striking star who has favorable odds is Russell Henley. We were on him last week at the Wyndham Championship, and while he didn’t cash an outright ticket for us, he still churned out a top-nine finish. The irons continued to stay hot, as he racked up another 3.2 strokes on approach, bringing his last five tournament cumulative total to 26.1.
158 yards out.
Behind a tree.
In the rough.
In a divot.Russell Henley and his caddie had their work cut out for them with this approach but took the time to get it right. pic.twitter.com/UJMaGVFd3R
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 14, 2020
He ranks second in this field since the restart in strokes gained approach and second in strokes gained tee-to-green. He’s made four of six cuts at TPC Boston in the past, highlighted by a second place finish in 2014.
Pick: Russell Henley Top-20 Finish (+335)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
