First Round Leader Odds at 2021 Valero Texas Open
- The Valero Texas Open from TPC San Antonio tees off Thursday, April 1st
- Tony Finau is favored to be the first round leader over Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth
- See the best bets and odds to grab the first-round lead in the article below
In the final tune-up before next week’s Masters, the Tour is in San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. With Dustin Johnson withdrawing, the event doesn’t have a lot of star power competing, as Tony Finau is the only top-20 player in the world teeing it up.
Despite so few top golfers playing, there are other interesting names including Scottie Scheffler – who was runner-up at last week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play – Jordan Spieth, and defending champion Corey Conners.
In this article, we’ll explore which players have the best chance of being the leader after day one at TPC San Antonio.
2021 Valero Texas Open First Round Leader Odds
| Golfer | Odds at DraftKings | Tee Time |
|---|---|---|
| Tony Finau | +2500 | 12:53pm |
| Scottie Scheffler | +2800 | 7:58am |
| Jordan Spieth | +2800 | 8:09am |
| Abraham Ancer | +3300 | 7:47am |
| Corey Conners | +3300 | 8:09am |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3300 | 1:04pm |
| Ryan Palmer | +4000 | 8:09am |
| Si Woo Kim | +4000 | 1:26pm |
| Charley Hoffman | +4000 | 1:48pm |
| Cameron Tringale | +4000 | 1:59pm |
| Keegan Bradley | +5000 | 8:20am |
| Harold Varner III | +5000 | 12:31pm |
| Zach Johnson | +5000 | 1:26pm |
| Lanto Griffin | +5000 | 1:26pm |
| Brendan Steele | +5500 | 8:31am |
Odds as of March 31st
The forecast is expected to be sunny all day with low 50’s temperatures in the morning going up to high 60’s for the afternoon golfers.
The wind won’t be much of a difference for the early players compared to the late ones, with gusts steady around 18 miles per hour throughout the entire round.
A benefit for those playing in the morning also is the exact same as it is every week – less bumpy greens with fewer players chewing them up.
Ryan Palmer a Fast Starter
Among those players who are competing this week, Ryan Palmer has the best first round scoring average this season. For nine straight tournaments his worst opening day is a 71 and on five occasions he’s shot in the 60’s.
2020-21 PGA Tour First Round Scoring Average Leaders
| Golfer | Average Score | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 8. Ryan Palmer | 69.10 | +4000 |
| 9. Kevin Chappell | 69.13 | +8000 |
| 10. Cameron Tringale | 69.14 | +4000 |
| 12. Scottie Scheffler | 69.23 | +2800 |
| 16. Russell Knox | 69.38 | +9000 |
| T-18. Chris Kirk | 69.50 | +5000 |
| T-18. Doug Ghim | 69.50 | +6600 |
| 23. Abraham Ancer | 69.58 | +3300 |
| 26. Charley Hoffman | 69.65 | +4000 |
| T-27. Keegan Bradley | 69.67 | +5000 |
Palmer has been solid on the campaign, with six top-25’s, a runner-up and a pair of fourth place results. He’s been as consistent as they come, ranking inside the top-25 in seven key strokes gained categories.
He also enjoys this track, having posted T-6, T-4 and T-6 finishes from 2015-17. In the last 24 rounds at TPC San Antonio, Palmer is second in ball striking, third in strokes gained off-the-tee, sixth in SG: approach and ninth in total strokes gained.
- Pick: Ryan Palmer (+4000)
Past Champ Brendan Steele In Fine Form
Brendan Steele has been a perfect eight-for-eight in making cuts in 2021. His best two finishes were a T-4 at the Sony Open and a T-3 in his previous stop two weeks ago at the Honda Classic.
In five of those eight starts, he’s gained at least five strokes on the field tee-to-green.
Bank shot by @Brendan_Steele 🏦@TheHondaClassic pic.twitter.com/5iIarIDCvg
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 21, 2021
In his last 24 rounds on Tour, Steele is in the top-15 in five key strokes gained categories, highlighted by him being third in strokes gained off-the-tee.
He’s a respectable 44th in first round scoring on the season, with nothing worse than a 73 in 14 tournaments.
The 2011 champion of this championship also has a T-4 and a T-8 at this venue in his career.
- Pick: Brendan Steele (+5500)
Martin Laird an Intriguing Option
When looking at players who are further down the board, Martin Laird sticks out in a big way. He won this championship in 2013 and also won earlier in the season in Las Vegas.
He has seven opening rounds in the 60’s on the campaign, and though he’s not been as good as he was at the end of 2020, he was in second place two tournaments ago through 36 holes at Bay Hill.
In the last 24 rounds at TPC San Antonio, Laird has been solid across the board in many strokes gained categories.
Laird’s Strokes Gained Rankings at TPC San Antonio In Last 24 Rounds
| Tee-to-green | Ball Striking | Total | Off-the-tee | Approach | Short Game | Putting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 39 |
For a player who has four career top-20 finishes at this track, including a victory, his long odds are very intriguing to have the best first round score and also to win the event outright as well.
- Pick: Martin Laird (+9000)
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Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 16 years, where he's been featured on Sportscentre, That's Hockey, That's Hockey 2Nite, The Masters preview shows, and several more.
