Belmont Park Runhappy Carter H. Odds & Betting Preview

• The Carter Handicap is a Breeders Cup Win and You’re in Race
• The 11 horse field presents a terrific betting contest with four horses that could be the favorite
• Because of COVID-19 this is the first Grade 1 race in New York this year

Originally scheduled to be run at Aqueduct in April, the Carter Handicap takes place Saturday at Belmont Park. A competitive seven furlong sprint, any of four horses could go off the favorite in the race that will air on Fox Sports 1 at 5:36 pm EST.

The winner of The Carter will receive an automatic berth into the fall’s Breeders Cup Sprint. However, several of the entrants are among the prime contenders for that race win or lose at Belmont this weekend.

Most handicappers will spend their time choosing between Performer, Vekoma, Firenze Fire, and Mind Control, but you can even go deeper than that quartet, and regardless of your choice the price should be right. Let’s break down the field.

2020 Carter Handicap Odds

All odds taken June 5

Favorite

Performer is the tepid early favorite, and how can you argue with four wins in five career starts? This is far and away his toughest race and a difficult spot for his four-year-old debut. Why is he the chalk? Check out his last start, November’s Discovery Stakes.

While the layoff is long, horses often improve significantly between their three and four-year-old seasons, and now Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey is expecting even better from Performer.

Contenders

Like Performer, Mind Control has done most of his best work in New York. A winner of three straight including the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens Stakes in August at Saratoga, Mind Control was sharp last time out making a big move late in March’s Tom Fool Handicap.

Mind Control’s only start at Belmont didn’t go well, but seven victories in 12 tries and over $1 million in earnings suggests he’ll be ready to roll.

Vekoma has run just once since finishing 12th in the Kentucky Derby last year. The Nashua Stakes champ as a two-year-old, and Blue Grass winner in 2019, he looked sharp in March at Gulfstream Park.

With four wins in six races you always get a strong effort from Vekoma, and his second race as a four-year-old, and second off a layoff should mean he is primed for his best.

Making his second start as a five-year-old, Firenze Fire is seeking a berth into his fourth straight Breeders Cup. A winner of 10 races in 24 tries, the veteran has yet to hit the board at the Breeders Cup. That said, only recently have they decided he does his best work in sprint races. Since finishing fifth in the Breeders Cup Sprint in November, he has won three straight races and his 2020 debut was a dandy at Laurel Park in February.

Since the middle of last year Firenze Fire has put together one strong effort after another. There is no reason to believe he won’t run big on Saturday.

Longshot

Nitrous hasn’t won in more than a year but he has faced the best of the best. Some of his best races over the years have been in New York including a runner up performance at Belmont in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes last June. He was making progress against a good field in the Count Fleet Stakes last time out and finished fourth. Today he gets an extra furlong to work with.

Analysis

With Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez in the irons, Mind Control is our selection in a very competitive heat. He has proven that he can beat older horses, and win at this level. Trainer Greg Sacco said he is training well and seemingly always shows incredible heart. He’ll need it against a tough group of opponents at Belmont Park.

Pick: Mind Control (+400)