Breeders’ Cup Classic Sleeper Picks: Longshots to Upset the Odds
- If Flightline loses Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic a big-priced winner is possible
- Who could be the upset winner of America’s richest race?
- What longshots are worth considering Saturday at Keeneland for Breeders’ Cup Classic longshots?
Recent runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Classic have been formful. You have to go back a decade to find a $20 winner (Fort Larned in 2012), and most of the champions have been less than +500. These things go in cycles. The year before Fort Larned scored at +940, Drosselmeyer cashed for $31.60. Don’t dismiss the potential Breeders’ Cup Classic longshots.
Because Flightline is a clear and heavy favorite, any other entrant who can beat the chalk will pay well. The latest Breeders Cup Classic odds suggest there may be value on the priciest horse in the field, the entrant who has earned the most cash, and the Kentucky Derby winner.
Breeders’ Cup Classic Sleeper Picks
Breeders’ Cup Classic winner odds are important, but they aren’t everything. If you think Flightline is unbeatable, you can bet on a horse to hit the board (place or show), or round out an exacta or trifecta. A sleeper can be valuable not just if they win, but some Breeders’ Cup Classic betting sites online give you attractive alternative ways to bet the big race too.
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Post time is scheduled for 5:40 pm ET. NBC will televise the big day of racing which includes a full day of undercard races. The weather forecast projects temperatures in the mid ’70s with a negligible chance of rain Saturday in Blue Grass country Kentucky.
Taiba Is a Regally Bred Breeders’ Cup Classic Longshot Option
The eight horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year were sold at two-year-old auctions for a combined $4.3 million. The most expensive of the group was Taiba (+800). The $1.7 million son of Classic winner Gun Runner burst onto the scene with a dazzling win in April’s Santa Anita Derby.
The Santa Anita Derby was only the second career start for Taiba. Though the Bob Baffert-trained colt didn’t run well when his trainer was suspended from the Kentucky Derby, he has returned to look strong. Taiba just missed in the Haskell Stakes, and impressively won September’s Pennsylvania Derby.
Taiba may need his best career race to beat Flightline, Epicenter, Life Is Good, and others in here, but he is bred to be really good, and has lived up to that price thus far. Facing elders for the first time is a challenge, but Baffert and this pricey lightly raced horse could be sitting on a big one.
Youth is Exciting, but Experience is Valuable
This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is full of horses who may be great. Flightline has run just five times, while Epicenter and Taiba are facing older horses for the first time. Life Is Good has never run a mile-and-a-quarter. Hot Rod Charlie (+1500) has been there and done that.
A winner of over $5.5 million, Hot Rod Charlie won the Pennsylvania Derby last year. He ran faster than Taiba did in getting to the line first in the same race this year. HRC finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last year, and this year just missed in the $12 million Dubai World Cup.
Sure, Hot Rod Charlie has won just once in his last four races. He looked pretty strong beating Rich Strike last time out at Churchill Downs.
Hot Rod Charlie is a pro. Does his best race beat Flightline? Only if Flightline runs a B- race. Might Hot Rod Charlie hit the board at a price, absolutely. He has no major question marks.
They’re Making a Movie About Rich Strike – Will There Be a Sequel?
When Rich Strike woke up on May 6, it didn’t seem like he would be running in the next day’s Kentucky Derby. Because of a scratch, he was let in and breaking from post position 20 ignored in the wagering (+8080). Then magic happened.
Many said it was a fluke, but Rich Strike has run well since the Run for the Roses. He was well beaten in the Belmont Stakes but ran fourth in the Travers Stakes, and perhaps should have beaten Hot Rod Charlie in a very strange Lukas Classic.
Rich Strike (+2000) has two wins in 11 career starts. He benefited greatly from a crazy pace in the Kentucky Derby. Guess what, Flightline and Life Is Good know only one speed, gunning it out of the gate. Rich Strike will be waiting. Could lightning strike twice?
Breeders’ Cup Classic Longshot Picks
Taiba is super talented and any time he’s on the track could freak out and run a massive race. That said, there is something about backing a consistent and reliable horse. Hot Rod Charlie probably is not going to win, but he is going to take to his surroundings and run his race. He has a solid chance to hit the board at a nice number.
Pick: Hot Rod Charlie (+1500)
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
