Oaklawn Park Mile and Stakes Odds & Picks for April 11

• Oaklawn Park has a strong Saturday card highlighted by two stakes races
• Million-dollar earner Tom’s d’Etat will be the favorite in the Oaklawn Mile
• With the Kentucky Derby now shifted to September, the Oaklawn Stakes slots in as a Derby prep race

The number of race tracks still open is limited, which means the top horses in training are descending upon Florida and Arkansas in large numbers. That creates competitive and deep races with good value for bettors.

In Hot Springs, AR on Saturday the Oaklawn Mile has 14 horses entered and that includes three horses who have earned $1 million or more in their career. The Oaklawn Stakes is expecting a field of 13 with several Triple Crown contenders in the group.

Let’s go through both races and see what bets make some sense.

The Oaklawn Mile is scheduled for 5:43 PM ET and has a purse of $150,000. It is for four year olds and up. Let’s take a look at the full field.

2020 Oaklawn Park Mile Odds

Odds taken April 10.

Favorite: Tom’s d’Etat

Making his seven year old debut after a four month layoff, Tom’s d’Etat is coming off the best year of his career. He won the grade two Fayette Stakes in October and the grade one Clark Handicap in November.

While the wins last year were very impressive, both of those events were run at a-mile-and-an-eighth. Today’s race is just one mile. The only race he has ever run at a mile was his debut, in 2016, and Tom’s d’Etat finished 11th. He did win at one-mile-and-seventy-yards in 2018 at the Fairgrounds.

Contenders: Mr. Money & Improbable

Mr. Money cleaned up on the JV circuit last year. After running poorly in a couple of Kentucky Derby prep races, he was at Churchill Downs during the first Saturday in May, and won, but he prospered in the Pat Day Mile not the Run for the Roses. After that he won the Matt Winn Stakes, Indiana Derby, and West Virginia Derby.

He was second in the Pennsylvania Derby. Stepping back up in class, during his last race Mr. Money finished seventh in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile in November.

Improbable has impeccable connections. Trainer Bob Baffert has won two recent Triple Crowns, and China Horse Club owned the second of the two, Justify. Improbable finished second at Oaklawn Park in last year’s Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby before settling for fourth in the Kentucky Derby. He was sixth in the Preakness Stakes before winning the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar in August.

He last two efforts, a fourth place showing in the Pennsylvania Derby, and a fifth in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile are fairly uninspiring. That said, horses improve from their three-year-old campaign to their four-year-old season, and he has been off since early November.

The Bet: Tom’s d’Etat

While the Oaklawn Mile has a lot of horses, it doesn’t have an abundance of likely win candidates. We’d love to tout a longshot, maybe Long Range Toddy who is now being trained by upset specialist Dallas Stewart and won the Rebel at Oaklawn last year, or Fight On who was fourth in this race last year and has some talent, but they have big drawbacks. Long Range Toddy hasn’t won in a year. Fight On is returning from Dubai, and horses are rarely sharp after that travel. Improbable is reasonable, but the extreme outside post position is not helpful.

Favorite Tom’s d’Etat is the most likely winner and it isn’t particularly close.

The Oaklawn Stakes will be run about an hour after the Oaklawn Mile. The horses will run nine furlongs for a purse of $200,000. The first three finishers will get an automatic berth into May’s Arkansas Derby, a race that has significant qualification points for the Kentucky Derby.

2020 Oaklawn Park Stakes Odds

Odds taken April 10

Favorite: Thousand Words

With three wins in four starts and under the direction of Baffert’s training Thousand Words is likely to be the favorite. There is reason to question his level of competition thus far. All four of his races have come in California, including stakes victories in the Los Alamitos Futurity and Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

His most recent race, the San Felipe Stakes in March he finished a well beaten fourth against Authentic. Baffert changes jockey’s for this race, with Joe Talamo taking over for Flavien Prat.

Contenders: Basin, Taishan, and Farmington Road

After Basin won The Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga in early September, he appeared to be a strong Kentucky Derby contender.

He took off the winter and returned last month finishing a well beaten third in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn behind Nadal and Excession. There is a serious question about whether he is better at shorter one turn races than longer events.

Taishan has just two career victories in five starts and was fifth in Oaklawn’s Southwest Stakes in February.

As you can see, he didn’t get a great trip in the Southwest. He was wide throughout and was coming hard down the stretch though well beaten. He rebounded to win a secondary race, an allowance optional claimer last month at Oaklawn. The connections have always been high on him and perhaps he is now primed for a top effort.

Farmington Road has one victory in four starts and wasn’t particularly close last time out finishing fourth in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds.

He did make up a of ground in that race, and was going good down the stretch. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Quality Road looks like he’ll enjoy longer races.

The Bet: Farmington Road

This feels like a pretty wide open event and we’re not interested in a short price. Extreme longshots like Coach Bahe and Mr. Big News aren’t totally impossible. We always like having a great trainer, and even though he was far from winning, Farmington Road’s last race is solid and the fact it appears he’ll relish more distance is excellent. Thousand Words just hasn’t faced great horses and he is vulnerable. We’ll take a shot with Farmington Road.