Odds & Picks at Saratoga July 16: Peter Pan Stakes & Schuylerville Stakes

• Opening Day at Saratoga Thursday includes two Graded Stakes Races
• The Peter Pan Stakes will award qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby
• Talented two-year-olds compete in the Schuylerville Stakes

The vibe of Saratoga in the summer is unlike any other horse racing meet in the United States. When equine travel from Belmont Park near New York City to the scenic and boutique upstate retreat, it usually signals a vacation from gridlock, and high-end horses running five days a week for almost two months. This year will be different.

Because of COVID-19 racing in Saratoga Springs will take place without fans. Usually, tens of thousands of people crowd the small village and a hundred-year-old racecourse, some dressed to the nines, and others wearing flip flops, tank tops, and enjoying their cooler by a picnic table, almost oblivious to the fact million-dollar horses are running a few strides away.

Opening day at The Spa is Thursday, and usually, the Schuylerville Stakes is the highlight of the first Thursday. This year, with some racing in the spring postponed, it splits top billing with the Peter Pan Stakes, a prep race for the Kentucky Derby.

As is usually the case at Saratoga, both races have competitive fields, and that means picking the winner can be both challenging and profitable. Let’s look at both events and see what value we can find.

2020 Schuylerville Stakes Odds

All odds taken July 14

Eight two old year fillies going six furlongs in a grade three race, the Schuylerville is the traditional feature event on opening day at Saratoga. Of the eight horses, seven are one-for-one in their career. All contenders but Hara are unbeaten, and all except Sunny Isle Beach are coming out of a maiden special weight. Wesley Ward’s two year old won a maiden claiming race at Churchill Downs last month.

Favorite

Beautiful Memories was an enormous favorite when she debuted at Churchill in late May, and to say she lived up to the hype is an understatement.

The horses she beat in her debut are unproven, but trainer Mark Casse and owner John Oxley think they have a special filly. She has worked very well leading up to this race.

Other Contenders

The only horse in the race to come anywhere close to Beautiful Memories’ speed figure is Hopeful Princess. They both earned 75 Beyer Speed Figures in their debut. Hopeful Princess won at Churchill Downs, and was sold following her debut.

The well resourced Stonecrest Stables purchased Hopeful Princess following her first race, and Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen was excited to move her into his barn. She too is working out very well.

Quinoa Tifah would be a bit of an upset. She wasn’t bet heavily in her debut but out finished a huge favorite to win her debut at Gulfstream Park.

If you are interested in a horse who was impressive in their debut, Queen Arella got off to a poor start, went wide, and rallied to win easily May 29 at Gulfstream. A very inexpensive horse to breed, following her debut victory nobody was willing to pay her new price, $475,000.

Analysis

It is not crazy to think this is a two-horse race. Beautiful Memories and Hopeful Princess are the class of the field based on their first races. Obviously, with young horses, a lot can happen, and this field features several horses who may step forward. That said, Hopeful Princess got tested, battled, and won in her debut, and now goes into one of the top barns in the country. She’s the play based on odds and past performances.

Pick: Hopeful Princess (+200)

2020 Peter Pan Stakes Odds

Usually run the second Saturday in May at Belmont Park, a prep for the Belmont Stakes for horses who opt against the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, this year the Peter Pan is at Saratoga and is a Kentucky Derby points qualifying race. Nine three-year-olds will go a-mile-and-an-eighth, and only two of them have any points thus far. Modernist is probably safely in the Run for the Roses field, while Candy Tycoon is on the outside looking in, and everyone else needs to run well on Thursday.

Favorites

Modernist finished seventh last time out in the Belmont Stakes, but in March ran pretty well in a third-place performance in the Louisiana Derby, and his victory in February’s Risen Star Stakes marked him a Kentucky Derby contender.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NN_KqzOaQm0

Modernist may have just not liked the one turn mile-and-an-eighth Belmont Stakes, and his prior three efforts make him a factor in the Peter Pan. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott will saddle the son of Uncle Mo.

Mystic Guide has just one career victory, but his second-place finish behind Tap It To Win, where he finished ahead of Country Grammer in June was solid.

Every race Mystic Guide has run has been better than the last, and if trainer Michael Stidham sees improvement on Thursday, he might find himself in the winner’s circle.

Todd Pletcher’s Candy Tycoon needed five races to break his maiden but followed it up with a runner up performance in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. After finishing sixth in the Florida Derby, he returned to run well at Gulfstream Park May 2. Like Mystic Guide, minor improvement in the Peter Pan could be enough.

Other Contenders

Chestertown has been an underachieving $2 million horse for Asmussen. He is coming off a runner up appearance June 11 in a state-bred starter allowance race at Belmont Park.

Caracaro won a maiden race in January very impressively earning a race-high 92 Beyer figure at Gulfstream Park. He faces winners for the first time, but a repeat could do the trick.

Country Grammer trainer Chad Brown said that his horse didn’t like the surface at Belmont when finishing third against Tap It To Win and Mystic Guide last time out. He was fifth in the Fountain of Youth.

Analysis

We’re willing to give Modernist a mulligan against tougher competition in the Belmont Stakes. He is the most accomplished in this group and should rebound with a strong effort. If he runs well there is value at this price.

Pick: Modernist (+350)