Astros vs Braves Odds, Picks & Predictions (Aug 21)
- The Atlanta Braves are -155 home favorites over the Houston Astros in an MLB inter-league afternoon game slated for Sunday, August 21
- Including last season’s World Series, Atlanta is 5-1 straight in the last six games against Houston
- See the Astros vs Braves odds ahead of Sunday’s series finale
Last year, the Atlanta Braves (75-47, 42-23 home) beat the Houston Astros (77-35, 38-27 away) to win the World Series. This season, both are currently among the hottest teams in baseball.
Atlanta is 11-1 over the last 12 games and 52-20 since June 1. That’s the best in all of MLB.
Houston is 41-22 since June 12. The Astros have won 10 of their last 17 games. They beat the Chicago White Sox 21-5 on Thursday.
It’s the hometown Braves who are given the nod from oddsmakers as the -155 chalk in the conclusion of this three-game series. Atlanta is 40-18 straight up as a home favorite this season.
Astros vs Braves Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | +130 | +1.5 (-170) | O 8 (-110) |
| Atlanta Braves | -155 | -1.5 (+143) | U 8 (-110) |
Odds as of August 20 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.
First pitch at Truist Park is set for 1:35pm ET on Sunday, August 21. Thundershowers with 7 mph wind and a temperature of 82 degrees are in the weather forecast.
At odds of -155, the Braves have an implied probability of victory of 60.78% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Houston would create a payout of $16.50.
In the MLB Division odds, the betting line is displaying the Astros as the -350 chalk to win the AL West. Atlanta is the second betting choice at +310 in the NL East. The MLB pennant odds show Houston at +180 favorite to win the AL pennant and the Braves as the +425 third choice to cop the NL flag. In the World Series odds, the Astros are +450 third betting choice and the Braves are +900 fifth choice.
Houston vs Atlanta Probable Pitchers
Astros right-hander Jose Urquidy is proving to be one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. He’s showing a .710 winning percentage (22-9) for his career and is 19-7 over the past two seasons.
The Astros are 15-7 in games he’s started this season. Urquidy has won six of his last seven decisions, counting just one loss over his past 11 starts. He’s allowed more than two earned runs only once through his past five trips to the hill.
Jose Urquidy since 6/21, which includes 9 starts:
-58.0 IP
-2.64 ERA
-32 hits
-.158 opp. avg
-0.79 WHIP
-8 quality starts
pic.twitter.com/nAo5otgxKB— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) August 15, 2022
Urquidy has posted 18 strikeouts against two walks over his last three starts. He rates among the top nine-percent of MLB hurlers in bases on balls percentage (5.0). But he’s in the bottom one-percent of Max EV (119.1), perhaps explaining the 20 home runs Urquidy has surrendered.
He’s 11-6 with a 4.09 ERA in 29 career away starts. Against the Braves, Urquidy is 2-0 in two appearances, both in last year’s World Series, with a 3.00 ERA.
Urquidy vs Morton Stats
| 11-4 | Record | 6-5 |
| 3.69 | ERA | 4.04 |
| 4.39 | xERA | 4.02 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 3.77 | SO/W Ratio | 3.40 |
Veteran Braves right-hander Charlie Morton is 2-2 with a 2.92 ERA in eight starts since July 1. He’s worked at least five innings in 14-straight starts. In five of his last 11 starts, Morton hasn’t allowed an earned run. However, he’s also surrendered four or more earned runs in 7 of his past 15 trips to the mound.
Morton leads the NL in hit batters with 14. He’s led the league in that category four times previously during his MLB career. Morton is also among the bottom five-percent among MLB pitchers in Max EV (115.8). He’s coughed up 18 homers.
Frozen (2013) 🥶
Charlie Morton strikes out the side looking. pic.twitter.com/NC78w5ZqOU
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) August 16, 2022
Over his last three starts, Morton has struck out 27 batters while walking three. He’s 4-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 12 home starts this season.
The ex-Astros hurler is 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA in 11 regular-season starts against his old club. However, in four postseason starts against Houston, Morton is 3-0 with an 0.50 ERA.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Braves Batters | Batting Average vs Urquidy | Astros Batters | Batting Average vs Morton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr | .000 | Jose Altuve | .200 |
| William Contreras | .000 | Yordan Alvarez | .500 |
| Ryan Goins | .000 | Alex Bregman | .250 |
| Vaughn Grissom | .000 | Mauricio Dubon | .000 |
| Robbie Grossman | .167 | Yuli Gurriel | .333 |
| Michael Harris II | .000 | Martin Maldonado | .538 |
| Guillermo Heredia | .000 | Trey Mancini | .143 |
| Matt Olson | .167 | JJ Matijevic | .000 |
| Marcell Ozuna | .000 | Chas McCormick | .000 |
| Austin Riley | .000 | Jake Meyers | .000 |
| Eddie Rosario | .000 | Jeremy Pena | .000 |
| Dansby Swanson | .000 | Kyle Tucker | .000 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | .000 | Christian Vazquez | .150 |
Robbie Grossman (1-for-6) and Matt Olson (2-for-12) are the only Braves who’ve previously faced Urquidy. Both are batting .167 against him.
When Martin Maldonado hits it, he hits it hard.https://t.co/kw0WueTXIf
— MLB Metrics (@MLBMetrics) August 11, 2022
Houston’s Martin Maldonado is 6-for-13 (.538) with an RBI against Morton. Yuli Gurriel is 1-for-3 with two RBI. Yordan Alvarez is 1-for-2 (.500). Cristian Vazquez and Jose Altuve have homered off Morton.
Astros vs Braves Prediction
Urquidy is both a starter and a stopper for Houston. He’s 3-1 this season when recording a decision immediately following an Astros loss.
Over his last six starts, Morton was very good in three of them and very bad in the other three. It’s very bad’s turn in the rotation.
Pick: Houston Astros ML (+130)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
